I would like to use this thread to monitor this unusually strong Bermuda High as we go into Hurricane season. I hope that the pattern changes soon so this thread doesn't get as much attention
000
FXUS62 KMFL 111756
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
200 PM EST SAT MAR 11 2006
DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN..GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC HAS BEEN THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE ALL
WINTER. SO FAR THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A COUPLE OF OCCASIONS DURING
WHICH A TROUGH HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DIG DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. AND BRING COLD AIR TO OUR ZONES. THESE WERE THE TWO FREEZE
SITUATIONS WE HAD EARLIER IN THE WINTER. SINCE THIS UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE..ANY FRONTS THAT WE HAVE MOVE INTO OUR ZONES
WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO BRING ANY BIG TEMPERATURE CHANGES WITH THEM.
THE COLD AIR BEHIND THEM WILL MAINLY MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC TO OUR
NORTH. ALSO THIS UPPER RIDGE HAS GENERALLY PREVENTED ANY DEEP FLOW
OF MOISTURE FROM RETURNING AHEAD OF ANY FRONT SO WE HAVE ALSO HAD
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THEM. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WAS IN THE
PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING IN
OUR DIRECTION UNTIL LATE TOMORROW. WHAT IS LEFT OF IT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME DIFFUSE IN OUR VICINITY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT AFTER THAT IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
ZONES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEITHER OF THESE FRONTS SHOULD
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWERS. THEIR TWO MAIN IMPACTS WILL
BE DRIER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS
Here is the latest discussion:
It's really not looking good. We need to count on a pattern change for hurricane season:
000
FXUS62 KMFL 130254
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 PM EST SUN MAR 12 2006
.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT THAT WE ARE DUE TO HAVE MOVE IN ON
WEDNESDAY IS IN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPING
LOW THAT WILL BRING IT HERE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST SO FAR NORTH
OF OUR AREA THAT THE PORTION OF THE FRONT THAT IS PUSHED INTO OUR
ZONES WILL BE THAT PORTION WITH THE WEAKEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THIS ALONG WITH OUR UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO HELP CUTOFF THE RETURN
OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT LOW.
ALSO THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MEAN THE COLDER AIR WILL MAINLY MOVE EAST
WELL TO OUR NORTH. IN ADDITION WE ARE SEEING AN UPPER TROUGH BEGIN
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 60 AND 65W NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL
PROBABLY DEEPEN SOME AS OUR LARGE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. SO OUR UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY EVEN MORE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. BECAUSE OF THIS IT APPEARS OUR WEDNESDAY FRONT
WILL ACTUALLY STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR ZONES. THIS PATTERN WILL
MEAN THAT THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED THE NEXT
WEEKEND WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT EITHER. INSTEAD THE COLD AIR
BEHIND IT WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THEN SPREAD BACK OVER THE
PENINSULA.
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