Repeat of 2004 setup for Florida

[boca]

It looks like its going to be a repeat of 04 for Florida warm and dry with persistent Easterly winds and high prssure at the mid and upper levels. Any system that tries to come in from the west will either weaken or get shunted NE so its going to be a long spring and an active fire season. I hope the hurricane season won't be like 2004,but it looks likely.

[MiamiensisWx]

This is from the latest NWS discussion from Miami...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FEATURE INFLUENCING LOCAL WEATHER
EARLY THIS WEEK IS A DEEP CLOSED LOW NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. FURTHER WEST...A RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF
ANOTHER VIGOROUS LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS POISED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY. AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE...NOW
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PROMPT WARM AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS TODAY.
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER GIVEN
FAIRLY LOW MOISTURE VALUES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...TAKING POSITION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE
EAST BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING
ACCORDINGLY. EXTENDED MODELS SHOW THE THE MAIN RIDGE ALOFT
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...BLOCKING ANY SYSTEMS FROM THE WEST PENETRATING INTO
FLORIDA.

[CHRISTY]

hopefully we wont have anything like this!but if the bermuda high parks itself the way iam thinking might happen..florida might be in trouble!

[skysummit]

What's making you think the Bermuda High will park itself like you're thinking?

[MiamiensisWx]

I truly think this may very likely happen this year or, at longest, within the next few years. However, I don't think it will weaken as much before landfall, if at all. I also think it will hit more to the south near Fort Lauderdale and be a large storm.

[MiamiensisWx]

By the way, I think that - based on the setup - that the ridge will be large, powerful, and centered dominantly in the central Atlantic, extending far west and east for 2006.

[boca]

Cape Verde I hope your wrong because I just got my van back from Wilma damage and fixed my screens this past week.

[CHRISTY]

yep thats exactly what i was going to say!my fear is with an active capeverde region this year i think this might increase our chances if seeing the big one.(that bermuda high is going to be critical)

[CHRISTY]

just look at my avatar!thats what i fear!!!!by the its hurricane floyd.

[skysummit]

Well, if the spring, summer, and fall are anything like this winter, I don't think we'll be getting many troughs to dig south and east to shunt these monsters away from the U.S.

[boca]

Luckily that one missed us.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think this scenario is the most likely - and one of the worst - one(s) for a major to hit southeast Florida. I think this may happen this year or within the next few years at the latest.

[CHRISTY]

can you explain why you feel that way!and what signs can you see indicate something like this might take place in the near future.just wanted to know your opinion!

[boca]

My take on the weather pattern is when it is warm and dry in the spring its usually a precuror to the summer. When their are storms say north of Puerto Rico or DR the bermuda high will steer them towards us. Later this week that type of pattern will set up for Florida.

[CHRISTY]

i understand that but how can you know what the setup will be 3-4 months from now...alot can change between now and then.

[MiamiensisWx]

can you explain why you feel that way!and what signs can you see indicate something like this might take place in the near future.just wanted to know your opinion!

I think it may very likely happen because of these reasons...

1. In over 40 years, southeast Florida (Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade counties) has seen only two major hurricanes, both only in or near Miami-Dade County: Betsy (1965) and Andrew (1992). Palm Beach and Broward counties, meanwhile, have not seen major hits since 1947 and 1949.

2. In the last active cycle, lasting from the 1920s to the late 1940s, Florida - especially southeast Florida - was hit by hurricanes over and over again, including by several majors from the east. We are now back in an active cycle, yet we have not yet seen a major southeast Florida hit from the east. With the cycle continuing, it will be nearly impossible to escape without a major hit. Also, since it has been a long time, it may likely be very intense and around a Category Four with at least 145MPH winds.

Those are my main reasons and I feel strongly about it. What are your thoughts?

[skysummit]

Well CVW, I don't like your reason #1. Both those storms also affected us.

[CHRISTY]

well your very right about the fact that us here in miamidade have not seen a major hurricane for over 40 years,even andrew didnt come threw here it went threw homstead so we ended up getting i think cat2 maybe 3 winds or maybe even less then that,but your right i think we are way over due in 2004 we were sooo lucky jeanne went above this area and so did frances.but if 2006 brings more capeverde hurricanes then i think your stormtrack may pan out.

[MiamiensisWx]

Well CVW, I don't like your reason #1. Both those storms also affected us.

I know... I wish I could have said there will be fishes only!

[MiamiensisWx]

well your very right about the fact that us here in miamidade have not seen a major hurricane for over 40 years,even andrew didnt come threw here it went threw homstead so we ended up getting i think cat2 maybe 3 winds or maybe even less then that,but your right i think we are way over due in 2004 we were sooo lucky jeanne went above this area and so did frances.but if 2006 brings more capeverde hurricanes then i think your stormtrack may pan out.

I don't think it will hit Miami, though. Fort Lauderdale is more likely. However, it will likely be larger and slower-moving than Andrew and very intense. Do you agree?