Tropical Depression Basyang at WPAC

[P.K.]

The jet would certainly kill it, not that it would get anywhere near that without being torn apart.

What levels is this shear taken between? It doesn't say on the image.

[Coredesat]

I think it's upper-level shear, so 200-500 mb, probably.

[P.K.]

200hPa winds from the 1800 GMT GFS

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W ADVISORY NUMBER 8
800 AM GUAM LST MON MAR 6 2006

...TROPICAL STORM 01W DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF
39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SONSOROL IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39
MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 01W WAS NEAR LATITUDE 6.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS 250 MILES EAST OF KOROR
250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL
120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
200 MILES SOUTH OF YAP
410 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD AT A SLOWLY INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W SOUTH
OF KOROR LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN LATER
TODAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...6.6 DEGREES NORTH AND 138.0 DEGREES
EAST AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR LOCAL AREA...REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 AM GUAM LST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
2 PM GUAM LST.

$$

STANKO/MARN



I haven't seen this latest advisory by the Guam NWS posted so here it is.

[JonathanBelles]

I think it's upper-level shear, so 200-500 mb, probably.

i thought mb stood for millibars, if i am wrong explain it to me.

[senorpepr]

i was talking about the white band to the north of 01w

The blue areas won't.

The green areas will probably affect the storm some.

The yellow areas and higher will kill the storm.

The yellow areas indicate 30 knots of shear. The white areas are >100 knots of shear. If the yellow will kill the storm, you can bet the farm, wife, and kids that the white will kill it.

[senorpepr]

I think it's upper-level shear, so 200-500 mb, probably.

i thought mb stood for millibars, if i am wrong explain it to me.

Yes, mb stands for millibars.

200-500mb refers to standard layers of the atmosphere. The 500mb level (or the altitude where the pressure is 500mb) is near 18,000ft. 200mb level (or the altitude where the pressure is 200mb) is near 39,000ft.

[P.K.]

You can definitely see that shear here, got some heights on here for the pressure levels as well.



As you would expect it is very moist in the area of the TD.



Pressure is up to 1008hPa.

Tropical Depression
Issued at 00:00 UTC 6 Mar 2006
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 04.6N 136.1E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 04.8N 133.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT

[senorpepr]

PK, you earn a giant cookie for incorporating Skew-Ts into a S2K post--it's not done nearly enough.

[P.K.]

I was going to post the data file but I thought the actual Skew-T would be more fun.

[HURAKAN]

[JonathanBelles]

whats the new data?

[JonathanBelles]

i also notice the new coordinates of 4.6n and 136.1. Isn't 4.6 too close to the equator?

[HURAKAN]

i also notice the new coordinates of 4.6n and 136.1. Isn't 4.6 too close to the equator?

In 2001 Typhoon Vamei reached typhoon status around 1.5ºN, so 4.6 is not a problem!!!!

[HURAKAN]

06/0233 UTC 4.4N 136.6E T2.5/2.5 01W -- West Pacific Ocean


INTERESTING!!!

[JonathanBelles]

i also notice the new coordinates of 4.6n and 136.1. Isn't 4.6 too close to the equator?

In 2001 Typhoon Vamei reached typhoon status around 1.5ºN, so 4.6 is not a problem!!!!

yes, but this is a TD

[senorpepr]

4.6 is not a problem.

[Coredesat]

Appears to be trying to get its act together.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a itcz like system. The quickscat shows a tropical wave no LLC.

[P.K.]

FXPQ20 RJTD 060000
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD
PSTN 060000UTC 04.6N 136.1E
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 03.5N 135.0E -003HPA -003KT
T=12 03.7N 133.8E -001HPA -002KT
T=18 03.4N 132.9E -003HPA -003KT
T=24 03.6N 132.2E -002HPA +001KT
T=30 04.3N 131.0E -005HPA +002KT
T=36 04.8N 129.5E -003HPA +004KT
T=42 05.2N 127.8E -004HPA +005KT
T=48 05.6N 126.6E -006HPA +013KT
T=54 07.0N 124.8E -006HPA +001KT
T=60 08.1N 123.0E -004HPA +008KT
T=66 08.3N 121.2E -005HPA +017KT
T=72 08.8N 119.6E -005HPA +018KT
T=78 09.0N 118.2E -007HPA +016KT
T=84 09.1N 117.2E -005HPA +012KT
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=