Great News!: February N Atlantic SST Anomalies Down A Lot

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Code: Select all

YEAR   M   NATLC    ANOM
2005   1   26.84    0.99
2005   2   26.52    1.06 
2005   3   26.63    1.18 
2005   4   26.75    0.96 
2005   5   27.41    1.18 
2005   6   27.82    1.19 
2005   7   28.06    1.03 
2005   8   28.46    0.92 
2005   9   28.75    0.86 
2005  10   28.57    0.72
2005  11   27.95    0.54
2005  12   27.32    0.71
2006   1   26.38    0.54
2006   2   25.81    0.35

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indic ... tl.indices


This is amazing at how significantly the SST Anomlies have decreased! It now appears that the "bump" in December 2005 was just an anomaly of the decreasing trend we have seen since the peak in June...and for February, we are no longer significantly above average....we are still above average though. We need to monitor the trend to see if it continues to decrease, which it appears to me will be highly likely. This is just a hypothesis...but I am thinking it will hit a low around May-June, with maybe a low point near normal. It shouldn't, if it does, go below normal very far at all.

This is indeed good news, but we need to continue to monitor it.

[gatorcane]

Yep looks like right now were just above average but not as warm as last year....of course it's only March. Does anybody have some comparison charts from this year to last year (or even to 2004)?

[gatorcane]

[gatorcane]

Loop current and GS looks warm

[gatorcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

[Scorpion]

I don't see how this is cause for celebration, in fact, I see it as a cause for quite the opposite.

[SouthFloridawx]

wooohoooooooo

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Here is 2004:

Code: Select all

2004   1   26.47    0.63
2004   2   25.90    0.44
2004   3   25.77    0.32
2004   4   26.32    0.53
2004   5   26.50    0.27
2004   6   26.88    0.25
2004   7   27.44    0.41
2004   8   28.20    0.66
2004   9   28.65    0.76
2004  10   28.54    0.69
2004  11   28.25    0.84
2004  12   27.56    0.95

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hopefully 2006 hurricane season will be much quieter and hopefully SSTAs will
continue to fall to average or below average.

2005 took the energy out of those waters...now it's time for a cool down and less activity.

Now stuff can and will change between now and hurricane season, but for right now we have good news as the ssts are looking much less ominous, with the exception of part of the loop current.

[WindRunner]

I don't see how this is cause for celebration, in fact, I see it as a cause for quite the opposite.

How so?

[MiamiensisWx]

That's great news! However, I don't think this can last much longer. 2004's anomalies, in fact, were similar to this in March of 2004, which is very near the current timeframe.

[Scorpion]

I don't see how this is cause for celebration, in fact, I see it as a cause for quite the opposite.

How so?

We are here to track hurricanes. Therefore, it would be bad news if less hurricanes formed due to cooler SSTA's. By the way, the SSTA's right now are still equivalent of March 2004. And 2004 was no joke.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

But in 2004, there were not 27 named storms and 3 or 4 Category 5 Hurricanes, not to mention the majority of the destruction was due to a misplaced Bermuda High. Right now the trend is downwards and that is the key.

BTW, the vast majority of people will agree that it is good news. To hope for more hurricanes and a greater chance of more destruction (hoping for more hurricanes and just saying...oh, well I'll just hope they hit no where) is useless, because the chance of that happening is virtually nil.

[Scorpion]

The trend will not be downwards for long. It has to go up sometime.

[ROCK]

good news unless one sneaks into the GOM and feeds off that healthy loop current.....

[Scorpion]

Also, noone is expecting a season nearly like 2005. However, if it is like 2004 and we get a few CV systems to hit the US that would be very bad, just as bad as 2005 if a major strikes South Florida.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

People knew it was going to be an extremely active season. I for one, thought that it was. No one in their right minds would forecast a season to have 27 named storms, and that is a fact Scorpion.

[EDR1222]

This would definately be some good news. Hopefully it can have some kind of effect on squashing the activity this year somewhat. Still, if the steering currents of 04 come into play, we could have some big problems. But I will definately take any good news that I can get. Thanks for posting Doctor Hurricane! All we need now is for a strong east coast trough to develope and persist over the summer to deflect these things harmlessly out to sea!

[MGC]

SST are just one part of the equation. Water temps during the summer are always warm enough to support a Cat-5. It is the upper level enviroment that determines if a system will develope into a monster cane or just a weak one.....MGC

[Pearl River]

All it takes is one. Andrew was in an El Nino year.