Tropical Depression Basyang at WPAC

[cycloneye]

[JonathanBelles]

when do advisories come out from the JMA/JTWC?

[senorpepr]

when do advisories come out from the JMA/JTWC?

JTWC advisories in the WPAC basin come out every six hours: 03Z, 09Z, 15Z, and 21Z.

JMA advisories come out every six hours: 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z.

(Although I may be off on the JMA numbers...)

[senorpepr]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
200 PM GUAM LST MON NOV 7 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W FORMS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 01W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 138.0 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 285 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR IN PALAU
300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL IN PALAU
205 MILES SOUTH OF NGULU IN YAP STATE
283 MILES SOUTH OF YAP...AND
405 MILES EAST OF SONSOROL IN PALAU

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W IS DRIFTING NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THIS FORECAST TRACK SHOULD TAKE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 01W SOUTH OF PALAU.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...5.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 138.0 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 30 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST SATURDAY NIGHT.

$$

ZIOBRO

[TheEuropean]

Now it's a tropical storm, that will threaten the philippines:

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ//TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 5.0N 138.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.0N 138.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 5.1N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 5.4N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 5.7N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 6.0N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 6.7N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 8.9N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 11.7N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 5.0N 138.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS SLOWLY TRACKED WESTWARD AT
01 KNOT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z,
042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//

[James]

Ah, maybe a typhoon before it gets to the Philippines.

[senorpepr]

Ah, maybe a typhoon before it gets to the Philippines.

Shhh... don't say that.

[P.K.]

I agree it is a TD now as a wind speed is given.

WWJP25 RJTD 040600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 04.8N 138.4E CAROLINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 976 HPA
AT 58N 178E BERING SEA MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 59N 171W TO 57N 165W 54N 161W.
COLD FRONT FROM 59N 171W TO 55N 175W 48N 175E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 48N 175E TO 38N 165E 28N 153E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 60N 169W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 162E 45N 171E
52N 180E 34N 180E 33N 170E 36N 162E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 26N 178E NW SLOWLY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 48N 138E ESE 15 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 39N 122E ESE 20 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 31N 131E ESE 15 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

NWS Surface Analysis
Wind shear map
JTWC Forecast Track

It looks like the front that is midway between Asia and North America is producing a small area of troughing (one could even say a weak stationary front) between Japan and the Philippines. That, coupled with the 1024hPa high over southern Japan (which should be slightly moving eastward) will help kick 01W toward the northwest. The question is... will it be enough of a polar motion to avoid the PI or will this take it over the eastern Visayas and into Luzon?

The latest JTWC track paints a rather nasty picture, IMO. It has it edging close to eastern Mindanao as a typhoon... which should produce a good soaking for Davao--one of the PI's largest populated areas. This track also puts the system as a typhoon over Leyte in the eastern Visayas. Southern Leyte was the province that had the deadly mudslide a couple of weeks ago--rainfall is something they don't need. Finally, the track takes it as a weakening tropical storm toward southern Luzon, near Quezon--the PI's most populated city.

:scores bonus points for knowing his Filipino geography for the sake of his hide:

From PASAGA...
At 2 p.m. today, tropical depression was estimated at 1,270 kms east of Southern Mindanao (5.0ºN 138.0ºE) with maximum sustained winds of 45 kph near the center. Tail-end of a cold front affecting Northern and Eastern Luzon and Eastern Visayas.

Forecast:
Northern and Eastern Luzon, the eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao will experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers becoming frequent rains over Aurora, Quezon, Bicol region and Eastern Visayas which may cause flash floodds and landslides. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the northeast and east will prevail over Northern and Eastern Luzon and the coastal waters over these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the northeast and east with slight to moderate seas.

[senorpepr]

I know I'm getting ahead of myself here... but the next name on the list for the WPAC is Chanchu, which is a Cantonese word meaning pearl, supplied by Macau.

Later today as the system organizes, I'll try to come up with a more detailed forecast...

[TheEuropean]

Someone should edit the title of this thread or should I open a new one for the T.S.?

[senorpepr]

Someone should edit the title of this thread or should I open a new one for the T.S.?

Don't open a new one. Also... it's still officially a TD.

[TheEuropean]

Someone should edit the title of this thread or should I open a new one for the T.S.?

Don't open a new one. Also... it's still officially a TD.

Ok.

Here is a nice image of the developing storm:

[P.K.]

Tropical Depression
Issued at 12:00 UTC 4 Mar 2006
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 05.3N 138.3E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 05.5N 136.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT

[cheezyWXguy]

last nite it was only 25 kts... its strengthing slowly, but surely

[senorpepr]

Storm2k Worldwide Tropical Update page now has JMA, JTWC, and NWS links for 01W.

http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org/
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/wpac.htm

[James]

Hmm, the storm is looking a little worse for wear at the moment.

[P.K.]

Tropical Depression
Issued at 18:00 UTC 4 Mar 2006
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 06.3N 138.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 06.2N 135.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT

No model guidance from earlier and this appears to be the reason.

FXPQ20 RJTD 041200
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NO REPORT DUE TO MACHINE TROUBLE=

[HURAKAN]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 01W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
200 AM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006

...TROPICAL STORM 01W DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...INTERESTS
IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM 01W.

AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.8
DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 260 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR
275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL
190 MILES SOUTH OF NGULU
270 MILES SOUTH OF YAP
385 MILES EAST OF SONSOROL

TROPICAL STORM 01W IS DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM 01W IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE
WEST WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 01W
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...5.6 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.8 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 40 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST.

$$
MIDDLEBROOKE

[JonathanBelles]

so it is now technily a TS?