Is this the year

[SouthFloridawx]

CHRISTY
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my gutfeeling says yes.

cheezywxman
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me too

Hurricane Floyd
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I think there is a good chance and my gut leads toward NYC

cheezywxman
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I also have a gut feeling about there but also I think Houston might be in for somthing

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I vote no ... no more storms ... to impact the united states only fishies

do I sense a bit of -removed-? hmmm?

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hmmmm? that kind of posting gets annoying.

We are just commenting on the topic

[Audrey2Katrina]

I think to be considered "doomsday" for a particular area, a storm must meet AT LEAST TWO of the the following criteria:

-Kill 500+

-Make landfall at 145mph+ (In a populated area)

-Have hurricane force winds over 100 miles inland

-Create storm surges over 18 feet.

-Drop over 18" of rain on a single area.

-Cause 25 billion+ in damages

-Damage or destroy over 50% of structures in the area

Well, if we're going to list criteria, I'd say that's a pretty good list; but add that to fit the description of "doomsday" it would need to fit at least 5 of those criteria--an isolation of just two make for an awful storm; but not necessarily "doomsday" JMHO-- still a good list. And EXACTLY why I say we've had enough for a while... yeah, that's a wishcast but I'm sticking with it.

A2K

[Jim Cantore]

Nope, not this year.

The so-called doomsday storm will not strike the United States until the year 2018, probably on Friday, August 10th, with landfall officially taking place around 0500Z.

Where in the U.S?

[JTD]

What could be worse than Katrina honestly?

[Extremeweatherguy]

What could be worse than Katrina honestly?

A Cat. 4 or 5 making landfall in DOWNTOWN Miami, NYC, Galveston/Houston, or another one of America's major coastal (or near coastal) cities.

[ROCK]

What could be worse than Katrina honestly?

A Cat. 4 or 5 making landfall in DOWNTOWN Miami, NYC, Galveston/Houston, or another one of America's major coastal (or near coastal) cities.

true, or another 3/4/5 hitting NO and finishing it off.

[quandary]

What could be significantly worse than Katrina? We've already had the doomsday storm.

Doomsday storm would be an order of magnitude or so worse than anything before. Katrina was an order of magnitude worse than anything before it. It was twice as bad as Andrew, but has economic impact that is about 5-10 times greater than any season or single storm before (either Andrew or all of 2004). To top that by an order of magnitude would mean a 400 billion dollar storm and short of a 0.1% situation where a Cat 4 goes to NYC, nothing can do that.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What could be significantly worse than Katrina? We've already had the doomsday storm.

Doomsday storm would be an order of magnitude or so worse than anything before. Katrina was an order of magnitude worse than anything before it. It was twice as bad as Andrew, but has economic impact that is about 5-10 times greater than any season or single storm before (either Andrew or all of 2004). To top that by an order of magnitude would mean a 400 billion dollar storm and short of a 0.1% situation where a Cat 4 goes to NYC, nothing can do that.

A 400 billion storm? Katrina only caused $75 billion in damages (not $200 billion). So to double that you would need only a $150 billion in damage storm. This would easily be do-able in the event of a Katrina-like track but with a Cat. 4 or 5 landfall, or a Cat. 5 hitting Houston/Galveston or Miami or NYC or a combo of 2 of those cities. Were a Cat. 5 to hit Galveston; the surge would wash away the island, and the move up into southern Houston. At the coast Cat. 4/5 force winds would gut and destroy most structures, and inland in Houston; Cat. 2/3 force winds with higher gusts would cause serious damage to skyscrapers (much worse than what was seen in N.O. or Miami, and much worse than in Alicia in 83') and homes and with well over a million people living within the Houston city limits...it could certaintly cause a damage toll over $100 billion.

[Audrey2Katrina]

What could be significantly worse than Katrina? We've already had the doomsday storm.

Doomsday storm would be an order of magnitude or so worse than anything before. Katrina was an order of magnitude worse than anything before it. It was twice as bad as Andrew, but has economic impact that is about 5-10 times greater than any season or single storm before (either Andrew or all of 2004). To top that by an order of magnitude would mean a 400 billion dollar storm and short of a 0.1% situation where a Cat 4 goes to NYC, nothing can do that.

A 400 billion storm? Katrina only caused $75 billion in damages (not $200 billion). So to double that you would need only a $150 billion in damage storm. This would easily be do-able in the event of a Katrina-like track but with a Cat. 4 or 5 landfall, or a Cat. 5 hitting Houston/Galveston or Miami or NYC or a combo of 2 of those cities. Were a Cat. 5 to hit Galveston; the surge would wash away the island, and the move up into southern Houston. At the coast Cat. 4/5 force winds would gut and destroy most structures, and inland in Houston; Cat. 2/3 force winds with higher gusts would cause serious damage to skyscrapers (much worse than what was seen in N.O. or Miami, and much worse than in Alicia in 83') and homes and with well over a million people living within the Houston city limits...it could certaintly cause a damage toll over $100 billion.

Valid points but there is no final "cost" of Katrina yet. It might well be that it is $75 billion; perhaps a little less, perhaps a lot more--they haven't come in with the final numbers yet so nobody can say what it has cost with any definite authority yet.

All that said, I agree that a major storm pulling a catastrophic surge into NYC could be far worse than what New Orleans saw--and I pray God it never happens.

A2K

[f5]

the $75 to 100 billion total is INSURED damages only

[Extremeweatherguy]

the $75 to 100 billion total is INSURED damages only

and that goes for every storm. The damage totals they issue for storms are always from INSURED damages and nothing else.

[Swimdude]

Oh, define "doomsday." I voted No. Although TECHNICALLY, "not sure" should be everyone's answer.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What could be significantly worse than Katrina? We've already had the doomsday storm.

Doomsday storm would be an order of magnitude or so worse than anything before. Katrina was an order of magnitude worse than anything before it. It was twice as bad as Andrew, but has economic impact that is about 5-10 times greater than any season or single storm before (either Andrew or all of 2004). To top that by an order of magnitude would mean a 400 billion dollar storm and short of a 0.1% situation where a Cat 4 goes to NYC, nothing can do that.

A 400 billion storm? Katrina only caused $75 billion in damages (not $200 billion). So to double that you would need only a $150 billion in damage storm. This would easily be do-able in the event of a Katrina-like track but with a Cat. 4 or 5 landfall, or a Cat. 5 hitting Houston/Galveston or Miami or NYC or a combo of 2 of those cities. Were a Cat. 5 to hit Galveston; the surge would wash away the island, and the move up into southern Houston. At the coast Cat. 4/5 force winds would gut and destroy most structures, and inland in Houston; Cat. 2/3 force winds with higher gusts would cause serious damage to skyscrapers (much worse than what was seen in N.O. or Miami, and much worse than in Alicia in 83') and homes and with well over a million people living within the Houston city limits...it could certaintly cause a damage toll over $100 billion.

Valid points but there is no final "cost" of Katrina yet. It might well be that it is $75 billion; perhaps a little less, perhaps a lot more--they haven't come in with the final numbers yet so nobody can say what it has cost with any definite authority yet.

All that said, I agree that a major storm pulling a catastrophic surge into NYC could be far worse than what New Orleans saw--and I pray God it never happens.

A2K

yes, there is no final cost yet, and I have seen numbers from as low as $30 billion to as high as $105 billion while searching on Google. The $75 billion I posted came from Wikipedia and is a pretty good "in-between" number. Either way, any storm that reaches or surpasses the level of Katrina will be a doomsday scenario in my eyes (and the nations eyes)..and I, like you, pray it never happens. I am afraid though that it is not IF, but rather WHEN. No matter how much I may not want it to happen..eventually it will and we all need to be ready for it.

[T'Bonz]

I hope not. And I hope if a bad one comes, it stays the hell away from my area. :/

[cheezyWXguy]

Because of the gulf temps rising already, I have a gut feeling that Houston maybe slammed...I really hope it doesnt, but I hope Houston does get a TS and it moves thru NTX so we can get a lot closer to ending this drought

[Ixolib]

...At the coast Cat. 4/5 force winds would gut and destroy most structures, and inland in Houston; Cat. 2/3 force winds with higher gusts would cause serious damage to skyscrapers (much worse than what was seen in N.O. or Miami, and much worse than in Alicia in 83') and homes and with well over a million people living within the Houston city limits...it could certaintly cause a damage toll over $100 billion.

Even CAT 4/5 winds alone will not necessarily "destroy most structures". It's the surge that does the damage - NOT the winds. And even if those higher gusts caused damage to the skyscrapers, the damage would STILL not be on the level that the surge would cause to structures closer to sea level.

Hurricane impact ought to be redefined with surge potential being the main concern and winds - even CAT 5 - being the secondary concern.

[beachbum_al]

My gut feeling is going with I don't know!

[canetracker]

My gut feeling is going with I don't know!

Me too!

I don't know and I sure hope not.

[Audrey2Katrina]

the $75 to 100 billion total is INSURED damages only

and that goes for every storm. The damage totals they issue for storms are always from INSURED damages and nothing else.

I thought that to come up with "final" cost/damage figures they roughly doubled insurance claims (something to do with infrastructure and misc. expenses)...not too sure on that tho'. The reason I figured this might be so was because of what I'd originally read about Andrew. Just trying to use logic here. An article by some Insurance organization (I'd have to dig it up again and am too lazy/tired right now) showed that Andrew's claims were in the order of 12-15 B. yet most sites (including the NHC) show it as something akin to $24-26B in 1992 $$. Also, while Andrew was a tightly wound 5 that utterly devastated the Homestead area, I'd read a lot of those were very poorly constructed homes, etc. So I don't quite get the figures to jive (area of total devastation alone just doesn't seem to come close) unless I'm either seriously undercalculating the number of homes/businesses Andrew demolished, or seriously overcalculating (and I doubt that very much) those demolished by Katrina. In St. Bernard Parish alone some 15-20,000 homes are complete 100% losses, this doesn't begin to take into account the massive destruction along the Mississippi Gulf Coast, much less the 100,000 plus homes in New Orleans. It just seems to me that proportionately there isn't even a comparison, albeit I devoutly wish there were.

Perhaps someone with an insurance/met background could help clarify that confusion?

A2K

[dhweather]

Um, the doomsday storm hit last year. Her name was Katrina.


Now, other doomsday scenarios do exist:

Cat 3 into NYC
Cat 5 into downtown Miami
Cat 5 into Houston

That said, I don't think we'll see one of those three this year.