Anyone in the Miami Area: Dr. Landsea will be at FIU

[HURAKAN]

Hi Everyone,
I would like to invite everyone to a very special public
talk on Hurricane Cycles. This talk is part of the astronomy
public lecture series, and features Dr. Chris Landsea of the
National Hurricane center. Chris is an expert on hurricanes
and has even been inside them with the hurricane hunter aircraft.
We are delighted he has volunteered to tell us about hurricanes
and perhaps what experts think is in store for us in upcoming
hurricane seasons. As usual, the events are free and open to the public.

"Hurricane Cycles"
Dr. Chris Landsea,
National Hurricane Center,

Friday March 3rd, 2006
CP 145, 8:00 pm.

Observing Saturn afterward if weather permits.

Sincerely
Dr. James Webb
Dr. James R. Webb
Professor of Physics
Director, SARA Observatory
Florida International University
Miami, FL 33199
(305) 348-3964
webbj@fiu.edu

[CHRISTY]

wow interesting...keep us posted on here cause i probably have to work!it would be real nice if when u come from back from FIU you could write a little on here about what you heard there.thanks

[ericinmia]

Yeah he came by my school Barry U in miami shores a couple weeks back, but i wasn't able to make it to his program.

I'm not able to make it to that one either, so please if you can attend... let us know any interesting things he says.
-Eric

[HURAKAN]

I will try to attend for sure! I have some questions for him. It will also be interesting to see Saturn if the weather permits.

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm definately going to try to attend!

[HURAKAN]

Yesterday was the very anticipated visit to FIU of Dr. Chris Landsea. His presentation was called "Hurricanes and Global Warming: Observations vs. Expectations." The presentation was great. He addressed the fact that hurricanes damage has increased exponentially over the past century and as we know already, that's all tied with the increasing population in coastal regions and our increased wealth as a society compared to people leaving years before. He said that we have twice more "stuff" than our parents had and four times more "stuff" than what our grand-parents had. Therefore, damage has increased not because hurricanes have become more dangerous but it's all a function on how many people are at risk and how much do we have now compared to years past. Another graphs compared the population in coastal regions over time, and when you compared it to the damage graph, they almost were a perfect match! He also explained the multidecadal pattern that has been visible over time in the Atlantic and that he attributes must of our current activity to this pattern. Then he explained about Global Warming. He is convinced that we have changed the planet, and we are still doing so. That if we continue putting CO2 and Methane in the atmosphere, the planet will get hotter, that's is not question, but a fact. Now, how would this affect hurricanes and are we seeing this already happening? He showed some computer models forecast for the next 94 years (until 2100). For th computer models forecast, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere was double in time, and they showed that hurricanes will increase in about 5%. Which says that a 100 mph hurricane today, will likely be a 105 mph hurricane in 2100. Today he said that for example, in Katrina 170 mph winds, only 1 or 2 mph of that maximum intensity can be attributed to Global Warming.

It was very interesting talk, people asked some other questions, and I met CapeVerdeWave! A very nice young man with a lot of passion for hurricanes. We were also able to use a telescope to see the moon, and SATURN!!!! IT WAS THE MOST FASCINATING THING I HAVE EVER SEEN! In the sky with your naked eye it looks like a normal-faint star, but in the telescope you see the planet with all the rings, I was just amazed! The moon was also very cool because you could see all the craters and everything. Next week (March 10) there is another conference but mainly about Astronomy, and I'm going to be there!

[Aquawind]

That sounds like it was a great day! Interesting how he has statistics and numbers related to hurricanes and global warming.. Wish I had the audio of this meeting!

Yeah seeing Saturn in a telescope for the first time is awesome and the details of the moon are wicked. On a good viewing night with a good telescope you can see some incredible stuff..

Paul

[skysummit]

I remembered when I saw Saturn and its moons for the first time. That sold me. Since then, I've owned 13 telescopes and am an active amateur astronomer.

[HURAKAN]

I remembered when I saw Saturn and its moons for the first time. That sold me. Since then, I've owned 13 telescopes and am an active amateur astronomer.

It was an amazing experience. By the way, I'm thinking on buying a telescope that it's not very expensive ($150 - $250) and it's great to see the moon and planets. What would you recommend me?

[x-y-no]

Thanks for the report on the event, Hurakan. Sounds like it was an interesting evening.

I'd say that Dr. Landsea's ideas agree pretty well with my understanding of the issue.