SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Diwa

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
MiamiensisWx

#21 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Mar 03, 2006 11:58 am

It dosn't look too impressive to me... why was it upgraded? Sorry if I'm sounding ignorant...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#22 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:06 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:It dosn't look too impressive to me... why was it upgraded? Sorry if I'm sounding ignorant...


The system seems to be elongated, and that's probably why it doesn't look very impresive. Nevertheless, according to METEO-FRANCE the system has a well-defined LLC, convection around the center, and winds around 45 mph (1-min).
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:
Contact P.K.

#23 Postby P.K. » Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:30 pm

HURAKAN wrote:I know it's not a hurricane or tropical cyclone yet, but regularly all named tropical systems from the Southern Hemisphere and the North Indian Ocean are treated as tropical cyclones.


Most named storms in the North Atlantic are tropical cyclones as well. :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#24 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:35 pm

P.K. wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:I know it's not a hurricane or tropical cyclone yet, but regularly all named tropical systems from the Southern Hemisphere and the North Indian Ocean are treated as tropical cyclones.


Most named storms in the North Atlantic are tropical cyclones as well. :lol:


Every tropical low pressure is a tropical cyclone. I mean just the name "tropical cyclone" not the exact qualification.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#25 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Mar 03, 2006 1:38 pm

Any low pressure system is a cyclone. This system doe's not look to bad...
0 likes   
Top
Coredesat

#26 Postby Coredesat » Fri Mar 03, 2006 8:47 pm

Looking better. NRL has upgraded it to Tropical Cyclone 16S.

Image

It's pretty close to 90S, too (to the northwest of 16S). Fujiwara, maybe?
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneBill
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3420
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA

#27 Postby HurricaneBill » Fri Mar 03, 2006 11:08 pm

Did 90S used to be the storm that wasn't named?
0 likes   
Top
Coredesat

#28 Postby Coredesat » Fri Mar 03, 2006 11:09 pm

I think it's a different system, actually.
0 likes   
Top
MiamiensisWx

#29 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Mar 03, 2006 11:18 pm

The system to the northwest has been looking very good lately... maybe we will see a second tropical cyclone!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#30 Postby senorpepr » Sat Mar 04, 2006 12:29 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Any low pressure system is a cyclone. This system doe's not look to bad...


You know, "doe's" is the possessive form of a female deer. I believe the word you are looking for is: does (without the apostrophe).
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:
Contact P.K.

#31 Postby P.K. » Sat Mar 04, 2006 4:45 am

35kts

BULLETIN DU 04 MARS A 13H30 LOCALES:

VIGILANCE CYCLONIQUE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************


NATURE DES SYSTEMES DEPRESSIONNAIRES TROPICAUX
PRESENTS SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE DIWA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 993 HPA.
POSITION LE 04 MARS A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 18.3 SUD / 55.5 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE-CINQ DEGRES CINQ EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 285 KM AU NORD
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 14 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 19.8S/53.8E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 21S/52E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 22.5S/49.6E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#32 Postby senorpepr » Sat Mar 04, 2006 4:53 am

Also, MFR has upgraded the alert level for La Reunion...

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#33 Postby senorpepr » Sat Mar 04, 2006 8:47 am

Storm2k Worldwide Tropical Update page now has MFR and JTWC links for 11R.

http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org/
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/swio.htm
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#34 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 04, 2006 9:16 am

Plaisance, Mauritius, is reporting that 70 mm (2.76 inches) has fallen in the past 24 hours.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:
Contact P.K.

#35 Postby P.K. » Sat Mar 04, 2006 1:53 pm

35kts

BULLETIN DU 04 MARS A 22H30 LOCALES:

VIGILANCE CYCLONIQUE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE DIWA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 993 HPA.
POSITION LE 04 MARS A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 18.8 SUD / 53.9 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 280 KM AU NORD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 12 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 20.9S/51.7E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 23.1S/50.5E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 25S/51E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
BULLETIN REACTUALISE A 04H30
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#36 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:24 pm

Reunion Maurel, Riviere Du Rempart Mauritius Forecast Center, is reporting 93.60 mm (3.68 inches) of rain in the past 24 hours.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:
Contact P.K.

#37 Postby P.K. » Sun Mar 05, 2006 4:31 am

BULLETIN DU 05 MARS A 13H30 LOCALES:

ALERTE ORANGE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE DIWA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 993 HPA.
POSITION LE 05 MARS A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 19.5 SUD / 53.7 EST
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES SEPT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 230 KM AU NORD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST A 9 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 21.4S/52.4E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 23.7S/51.9E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 25.9S/53.5E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#38 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 05, 2006 11:03 am

05/1430 UTC 22.4S 51.7E T3.5/3.5 DIWA -- South Indian Ocean
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:
Contact P.K.

#39 Postby P.K. » Sun Mar 05, 2006 11:48 am

Dvorak estimate from MF at 1500 GMT is 3.0, still at 40kts.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#40 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 05, 2006 2:23 pm

P.K. wrote:Dvorak estimate from MF at 1500 GMT is 3.0, still at 40kts.


Yes, but after the low pressure that was to the north of Diwa dissipated, this system has been able to become better organized!
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: jhpigott, MetroMike, Orlando_wx and 58 guests