Tropical Depression Basyang at WPAC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking good might see a tropical depression soon.

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 021800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 021800.
WARNING VALID 031800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 980 HPA
AT 49N 157E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 49N 157E TO 49N 159E 49N 161E.
WARM FRONT FROM 49N 161E TO 49N 165E 48N 169E.
COLD FRONT FROM 49N 161E TO 43N 157E 39N 154E 34N 150E 28N 146E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 1300 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 900 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 55N 169E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 50N 156E 50N 175E
40N 168E 30N 157E 30N 149E 40N 154E 45N 156E 50N 156E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 05N 138E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 43N 178E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 29N 123E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 38N 120E EAST 10 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[cycloneye]

02/2033 UTC 4.6N 138.1E T1.5/1.5 93W -- West Pacific Ocean

[James]

Hmm, looking maybe a tad ragged this morning.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Last year was a slow western pacific hurricane season. See a slow western pacific in some times eastern pacific=a super Active Atlantic. My thinking is more energy gets to get into the waves in the Atlantic if there little taking that energy in the pacific.

[senorpepr]

Last year was a slow western pacific hurricane season. See a slow western pacific in some times eastern pacific=a super Active Atlantic. My thinking is more energy gets to get into the waves in the Atlantic if there little taking that energy in the pacific.

This isn't a slow WPAC season. Shoot... it's only the first week of March.

Also... consider this: 1997, the WPAC had a tropical storm in mid January. Thereafter... NOTHING formed until mid April when Super Typhoon Isa formed. 1997 was also the season where the Atlantic had an [sarcasm]super active season[/sarcasm] with seven tropical storms.



As for 93W... this is from PAGASA...

Eastern Luzon will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers while the eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to at times cloudy with rainshowers.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the northeast will prevail over Northern and Eastern Luzon with moderate to rough seas. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the northeast and north with slight to moderate seas.

Ang Kalakhang Maynila ay makakaranas ng bahagya hanggang sa kung minsan ay maulap na kalangitan na may pag-ulan. Mahina hanggang sa katamtamang hangin mula sa hilagang-silangan ang iiral at ang Look ng Maynila ay banayad hanggang sa katamtaman ang magiging pag-alon. Ang tinatayang agwat ng temperatura ay mula 22 hanggang 31 antas ng sentigrado (72°F hanggang 88°F).

Ang Silangang Luzon ay makakaranas ng madalas na maulap na kalangitan na may kalat-kalat na pag-ulan samantalang ang mga silangang-bahagi ng Kabisayaan at Mindanao ay magkakaroon ng madalas na maulap na kalangitan na may kalat-kalat na pag-ulan at pulu-pulung pagkulog-pagkidlat. Ang natitirang bahagi ng bansa ay magiging bahagya hanggang sa kung minsan ay maulap ang papawirin na may pag-ulan.

Katamtamang hanggang sa malakas na hangin mula sa hilagang-silangan ang iiral sa Hilagang at Silangang Luzon na may katamtaman hanggang sa maalong karagatan. Sa ibang dako, ang hangin ay mahina hanggang sa katamtaman mula sa hilagang-silangan at hilaga na may banayad hanggang sa katamtamang pag-alon ng karagatan.

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 030600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 030600.
WARNING VALID 040600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 982 HPA
AT 53N 163E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING NORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 53N 163E TO 53N 166E 53N 169E.
WARM FRONT FROM 53N 169E TO 53N 175E 52N 179E.
COLD FRONT FROM 53N 169E TO 45N 165E 40N 160E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 160E TO 36N 156E 30N 152E 27N 148E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1500 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 58N 177E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 54N 169E 53N 180W
45N 180E 30N 166E 30N 152E 54N 169E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 180E 24N 180E
20N 170E 30N 170E 33N 180E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 06N 138E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 34N 123E ESE 10 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[James]

So the JMA have upgraded it?

[senorpepr]

So the JMA have upgraded it?

Yes.

[P.K.]

I wasn't sure at this is in China's area and before they have referred to TDs before reducing them to tropical disturbances as the JMA hadn't upgraded them.

[cycloneye]

This system has a big circulation envelope and plenty of convection.Slowly it has started to organize and as JMA says it's already a TD but JTWC not yet has it as one.

[cycloneye]

03/1333 UTC 5.0N 138.3E T2.0/2.0 93W -- West Pacific Ocean


Dvorak T numbers haved increased from 1.5.I can see very soon a TCFA issued.

[P.K.]

I still don't think this has been upgraded as there is nothing on the JMA page. I still think there is a confusion between a tropical disturbance and a tropical depression between China and Japan given the 1006hPa pressure quoted.

761
WWJP25 RJTD 031200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 978 HPA
AT 54N 166E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 54N 166E TO 55N 170E 55N 178E.
WARM FRONT FROM 55N 178E TO 55N 180E 51N 172W.
COLD FRONT FROM 55N 178E TO 48N 170E 40N 162E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 162E TO 39N 159E 30N 153E 25N 148E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 59N 179W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 159E 55N 177E
55N 180W 44N 180E 32N 167E 39N 159E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 30N 170E 32N 180E
26N 180E 24N 172E 30N 170E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 05N 139E WNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 33N 125E ESE 10 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

Actually, the graphic and the WWJP25 RJTD is posted on JMA's webpage. Furthermore, the WWJP25 is written by JMA. Since they (JMA) are calling it a depression, it should be officially a depression.

[P.K.]

What I'm saying is the bit in the summary is from China's MetArea forecast, there was a previous time where China called a tropical disturbance a tropical depression and it appeared on there. Again in this case nothing ever appeared on the JMA or WMO page. Usually a wind speed is given when there is a TD.

MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1530UTC MAR. 03 2006=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 1200UTC MAR. 03=
FORECAST VALID 1200UTC MAR. 04=
WARNING=
NIL=
SUMMARY=
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006HPA AT 06N 138E MOVING WEST SLOWLY=
SW WINDS FROM 6 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER BOHAI SEA AND
BOHAI STRAIT AND NORTH OF YELLOW SEA AND MIDDLE OF YELLOW SEA=
WINDS FROM 6 TO 10M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER SOUTH OF YELLOW SEA
AND EAST CHINA SEA=
NE/ENE WINDS FROM 6 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER TAIWAN STRAIT
AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND SEA NEAR RYUKYU-GUNTO ISLANDS AND
BASHI CHANNEL AND SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES=
ENE WINDS FROM 6 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA
AND BEIBU GULF=
WINDS FROM 6 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER SEA OF JAPAN AND SEA
NEAR EAST OF JAPAN=
NW/W WINDS FROM 8 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER SEA NEAR SOUTH
OF JAPAN=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SOUTH OF SEA OF JAPAN
AND TAIWAN STRAIT AND PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND
NORTH OF G. OF THAILAND AND LAUT JAWA AND LAUT MALUKU AND
LAUT BANDA AND SEA SOUTH OF JAWA AND PART OF SULAWESI SEA AND
ARAFURA SEA AND MALACCA STRAIT AND SEL. MAKASSAR AND SEA WEST
OF SUMATERA=
FORECAST=
WINDS FROM 6 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER BOHAI SEA AND BOHAI
STRAIT=
SW WINDS FROM 6 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER YELLOW SEA=
WINDS FROM 6 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER EAST CHINA SEA AND
SEA NEAR RYUKYU-GUNTO ISLANDS AND KOREA STRAIT=
N/NE WINDS FROM 8 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER TAIWAN STRAIT
AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN=
WINDS FROM 6 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA
AND BASHI CHANNEL=
WINDS FROM 6 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER BEIBU GULF=
WINDS FROM 10 TO 18M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER SEA OF JAPAN AND
SEA EAST OF JAPAN AND SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
WINDS FROM 8 TO 18M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER SEA EAST OF
PHILIPPINES=

[senorpepr]

What I'm saying is the bit in the summary is from China's MetArea forecast, there was a previous time where China called a tropical disturbance a tropical depression and it appeared on there. Again in this case nothing ever appeared on the JMA or WMO page. Usually a wind speed is given when there is a TD.

That's odd, because JMA creates this image http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/g3/images/asia/06030321.png and they list 93W as a TD.

[cycloneye]

Well until the distint agencies get in accord about classifying it as a TD or not the title of thread will remain (93W invest at WPAC).

[HURAKAN]

That's the problem when you have a bunch of agencies and no one is in agreement on what to do with tropical cyclones. I think they should all meet and agree on what terms they will define tropical depressions, storms, and typhoons. Therefore, it will be much less confusing for the general public!

[HURAKAN]

IT LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, MAYBE A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM, TO ME! I HAVE SURELY SEEN MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL STORM IN MY SHORT LIFE!

[senorpepr]

That's the problem when you have a bunch of agencies and no one is in agreement on what to do with tropical cyclones. I think they should all meet and agree on what terms they will define tropical depressions, storms, and typhoons. Therefore, it will be much less confusing for the general public!

What they should do is let JMA act as the role of a RSMC and produce the only official advisories on WPAC storms. Other agencies, such as the CMA or KMA will translate the JMA advisories with no additional forecasting involved for the system.