APPROXIMATELY 510 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. EARLIER
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALED AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
EAST OF MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIES JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE LLCC,
PLACING THE SYSTEM IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. SINCE THE
LLCC HAS NOT FULLY ORGANIZED AND CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
02/0830 UTC 13.3S 57.2E T1.5/1.5 98S -- South Indian Ocean
ZONE PERTURBEE 11-20052006
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1002 HPA.
POSITION LE 02 MARS A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 13.0 SUD / 58.0 EST
(TREIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE-HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 910 KM AU NORD-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: INDETERMINE
CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE CETTE APRES MIDI A 16H30
BULLETIN DU 02 MARS A 10H30 LOCALES:
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET SI AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES,
IL EST FORTEMENT RECOMMANDE DE SE TENIR INFORME DE L'EVOLUTION DE
LA SITUATION
The southern Indian Ocean continues to get active and another cyclone could form in a few days.
