How will the GOM be in terms of Tropical Activity in 2006?

[cheezyWXguy]

Personally... I would like to see two or three tropical storms or depressions make landfall along the southern Texas coast. Given the right recurvature and the ample moisture, that would be WONDERFUL for those living in central Texas, Oklahoma, western Arkansas, southeastern Kansas, and southwestern Missouri.

I would love for that to happen...I remember Grace back in 2003...we got a good 3-4 inches during that one...I cant beleive that actually made it to tropical storm...I saw no rotation in it...either way it was a great rain producer for my area and im happy about that!

[MGC]

After the 2005 season, the GOM in terms of activity can only decrease. Two Cat-5 and a Cat-4 won't be repeated in 06.....MGC

[skysummit]

Don't forget about Cindy!

[Extremeweatherguy]

that drought map makes me worry even more for Texas. As we know...nature likes to balance itself out. this may mean an active storm season for Texans, but the silver lining is that the drought may get cut back as well.

[Weatherfreak000]

After the 2005 season, the GOM in terms of activity can only decrease. Two Cat-5 and a Cat-4 won't be repeated in 06.....MGC

I don't see where your getting this from....all signs are showing for an above average year with above average sst's in the gulf.


If anything it's looking like a repeat Katrina is all but imminent if a storm gets the chance. I'm not bashing your opinion or anything but do you really see mercy in hurricanes? Even after the devastation last year the Florida Peninsula got some action from Wilma, Rita and Katrina and i'd consider that less then merciful.

[Steve]

To hard to guess until May. But I'd bet a $5.00 contribution to the site that the Gulf sees at least 4 named storms this season.

Steve

[beachbum_al]

Run run as fast as you can!

[Cookiely]

Three majors in the GOM

[cheezyWXguy]

I say in the GOM:
4 storms
2-3 major
1 CAT 5

[TSmith274]

I have a bad feeling personally. It just never got cold down here this year. Today it's like 82 degrees. I just think we're headed for another year of bathwater in the Gulf. Will this translate into high activity? Probably so, but who knows? I think we'll have a couple majors in the Gulf, and I hate to say it.

[MiamiensisWx]

If there is an active Gulf year this year, wouldn't that also mean more Florida hits and, potentially, a stronger ridge?

[ROCK]

To hard to guess until May. But I'd bet a $5.00 contribution to the site that the Gulf sees at least 4 named storms this season.

Steve

good way to contribute to the site Steve . I am gonna hold you to that. I would say 2-4 tops this year for the GOM......we shall see...

[vbhoutex]

If the GOM sees less than 4 TC's this year I will make a larger contribution than that over what I normally do. I expect this to be a very active season again. I pray it doesn't reach 2005 levels, but somewhere around 20 named would not be a big surprise.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is my statewide breakdown of what I think happens in the Gulf this year:

Texas = 1 tropical storm landfall....1 hurricane landfall (could be a major).

Louisiana = Outer bands of a tropical storm or hurricane, but no direct hit.

Mississippi = Outer bands of a tropical storm or hurricane, but no direct hit.

Alabama = 1 strong TS or weak hurricane landfall.

FL (from Key west to Pensacola) = 1 tropical storm landfall...1 hurricane landfall (could be a major).

**So overall that means I am expecting 5 total named storms to make landfall along the Gulf this year, and of those I predict 2-3 hurricane landfalls, and 2-3 TS landfalls.**

[Steve]

>>good way to contribute to the site Steve . I am gonna hold you to that. I would say 2-4 tops this year for the GOM......we shall see...

Thanks. I'll post a thread closer to the season and invite up to 20 people to challenge me on the bet.

>>Louisiana = Outer bands of a tropical storm or hurricane, but no direct hit.

2 hits in 2002 (including rain from 7 named storms)
1 hit in 2003 (Bill)
1 hit in 2004 (Matthew)
3 htis in 2005 (Cindy, Katrina, Rita)

I don't know what we're getting this year, but I hope it's nothing more than a Cat 1. That would mean I'd have to evacuate my FEMA Camper and stay in my house which no longer has any interior rooms

Steve

[skysummit]

Too bad you can't just pull your FEMA trailer along with you.

[Dionne]

The SST's in the central GOM have my attention. That plume of 80F sea water which currently extends well north of the Yucatan looks menacing. I fear an active season in the northern gulf. I hope I'm wrong.

[ROCK]

The SST's in the central GOM have my attention. That plume of 80F sea water which currently extends well north of the Yucatan looks menacing. I fear an active season in the northern gulf. I hope I'm wrong.

just the loop current and yes it is rather healthy compared to 05. Need more than that though to spin on up. For NO's sake I am hope your wrong.

[KWT]

I don't think we'll have quite so much actvity in the Gulf as we did in 05, but I seriously wouldn't be suprised if there was at least 2 majors in there and maybe a cat 4/5, as well as possibly several other named storms.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A couple strong TS's or low end cat 1's...but perhaps one major towards September