Indian Ocean:Tropical Cyclone Carina

[cheezyWXguy]

BULLETIN DU 28 FEVRIER A 16H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CARINA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 910 HPA.
POSITION LE 28 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 16.7 SUD / 78.2 EST
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2400 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 9 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 18S/76.1E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 19.2S/74E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 20S/72.7E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 22H30 LOCALES

shes getting strong! Look at the pressure...

[senorpepr]

///Official advisory-- 115kt (10-min) - 131kt (US 1-min); 910mb///
771
WTIO30 FMEE 281222

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/10/20052006
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA)

2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 1200 UTC :
16.7S / 78.2E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 910 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 115 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350
50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 17.3S/77.3E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 18.0S/76.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 18.6S/74.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 19.2S/74.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 19.6S/73.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 20.0S/72.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
"CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, WITH AN HOTTER, AND A COLDER
CDO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE LAST HOURS.
THE SYSTEM GOES ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS INTO A REMAINING
FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AT THE BEGINING OF THE RANGE, THEN INTO AN
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
THEN SOLW DOWN AS A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE BIULD IN THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.

[James]

Looks like she will start weakening soon, her eye is not as crisply defined as it was and the convection is becoming a little ragged.

[P.K.]

Pressure up to 915hPa, 110kts.

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CARINA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 915 HPA.
POSITION LE 28 FEVRIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 16.8 SUD / 78.0 EST
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2375 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 5 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 17.6S/76.3E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 18.8S/73.7E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 18.8S/73.1E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
BULLETIN REACTUALISE A 04H30 LOC.

[cycloneye]

WTIO30 FMEE 281824 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/10/20052006
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA)

2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 78.0E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.2S/77.2E, MAX WIND=105KT , INTENSE TROP.
CYCL.
.
24H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 17.6S/76.3E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP.
CYCL.
.
36H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.2S/75.0E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP.
CYCL.
.
48H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 18.8S/73.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.0S/73.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 18.8S/73.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
"CARINA" SEEMS TO HAVE REACHED A PEAK OF INTENSITY TODAY. THE LATEST
METEOSAT 5 IMAGERY SHOWS A COLDER AND SMALLER EYE, AND THE LATEST
MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS-F16 1526Z) INDICATES A SLIGHT EROSION IN
THE
EYEWALL.
NEVERTHELESS, FOR THE MOMENT, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE
FAVOURABLE
FOR "CARINA", A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 TO
36
HOURS IN RELATION TO COOLER SST AND TO AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
CONSTRAINT.
"CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT
48
HOURS, AND THEN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE BUILDING MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE
WEST OF
THE SYSTEM

Reached it's peak and is starting to weaken.

[HURAKAN]

STILL SHE HAS THAT MONSTER LOOK!!!

[Coredesat]

Shear is REALLY high just to the south and west of the cyclone:

[HURAKAN]

"PRETTY WOMAN..," I MEAN, "PRETTY CYCLONE!!!"

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 78.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 78.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.4S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.1S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.9S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.7S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 77.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE STORM. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED
BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MORE POLEWARD TRACK PAST
TAU 24. AN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE STORM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARN-
INGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.



STARTING TO WEAKEN!

[JamesFromMaine2]

I don't think it really has started to weaking! Its been going through a ERC today and I think some how the eye has totally redeveloped further north or atleast it looks that way to me!

[wxmann_91]

The eye jumping north must be an error. Otherwise, a restriction of outflow on the southern semicircle is a signal that Carina is weakening.

[WindRunner]

If you watch the coordinates grid, the grid also jumps, though not as much as the eye (I think ). Even if it did shift a little north, I doubt it was anything significant.

But that is a pretty neat loop!

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING ANNULAR!!!

[P.K.]

The eye that was easily visible earlier has gone so it may be completing a EWRC.

La Réunion: Mercredi, 01 mars 2006, 04h16 (UTC+4)

[P.K.]

110kts, 920hPa

WTIO20 FMEE 010025
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/03/2006 AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 920 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9S / 77.9E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN
30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS
OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS
OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 12 UTC:
17.1S / 77.6E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE.
24H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 00 UTC:
17.5S / 76.7E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, "CARINA" REMAINED QUASI-STATIONNARY. BUT THE
SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SET AGAIN AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS
GRADUALLY.

[wxmann_91]

Here's an image from earlier:

[Coredesat]

It looked good earlier, but it seems to be encountering that shear I mentioned. The eye is becoming less well-defined, and the system itself looks sheared.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Was very powerful earlier with winds up to 150 mph.
Very Severe Looking...now weakening but it looked very severe earlier

[P.K.]

110kts, forecast to drop to 70 kts in 12 hours.

WTIO20 FMEE 010615
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/03/2006
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 920 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 77.8E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING
UP TO
150 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN
30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM
RADIUS
OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM
RADIUS
OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100
NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 18 UTC:
18.2S / 77.5E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL.
24H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 06 UTC:
18.9S / 77.1E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP..
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
"CARINA" IS UNDERGOING LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ANS
IS
WEAKENING.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING RAPIDLY DURING ITS TRACK
SOUTHWARDS
TOWARDS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE
INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW LEVELS STEERING AND COULD ALSO VEERING SOUTHWESTWARDS OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING
SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES.=
NNNN

[Coredesat]

Sure doesn't look like a 110 kt cyclone anymore: