Indian Ocean:Tropical Cyclone Carina

#101 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 3:07 pm

14SCARINA.115kts-927mb-158S-796E

THE MONSTER CONTINUES TO GROW! CAT. 4 RIGHT NOW!

#102 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 3:42 pm

575
WTIO30 FMEE 271825
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/10/20052006
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA)
2.A POSITION 2006/02/27 AT 1800 UTC :
15.9S / 79.5E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 MOINS /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350
50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 16.8S/78.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 17.7S/77.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 18.3S/76.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
48H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 18.7S/75.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
60H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.9S/74.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
72H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 19.1S/73.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.0
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IS COLDER AGAIN, SHOWING THE
INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS
DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO HEAD FOR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON
THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES ; IN A FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON.=
NNNN

#103 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 3:56 pm

Wow look how intense this Cyclone is only by looking at the windfield.

#104 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 4:16 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 79.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 79.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.8S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.6S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 18.5S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.5S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 79.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS BEING STEERED BY A
RIDGE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM A DEVELOPING
RIDGE POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE SOUTH-
WESTERLY TRACK PAST TAU 12. INTENSITY OF TC 14S WILL SLOWLY DI-
MINISH IN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280900Z AND 282100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMMA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.

NOTHING SHORT OF A POWERHOUSE!!!

Coredesat · #105 Postby **Coredesat** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 5:50 pm

WWIO21 KNES 272053
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN METEOSAT-5 IRNIGHT
.
FEBRUARY 27 2006 1900Z
.
15.9S 79.5E T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24HRS CARINA (14S)
.
PAST POSITIONS....15.1S 79.7E 27/0830Z VIS/IRDAY
14.5S 79.8E 26/1900Z IRNIGHT
.
REMARKS....OW EYE IS SURROUNDED BY B RESULTING IN A DT OF 6.0
AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS
6.5. FT BASED ON DT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 28/0400Z.

aerojad · #106 Postby **aerojad** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 5:50 pm

these things are beautiful to watch when they're not going to hit anyone

#107 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 6:33 pm

23:16 GMT

#108 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 7:32 pm

110kts, 915hPa :eek:

BULLETIN DU 28 FEVRIER A 04H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CARINA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 915 HPA.
POSITION LE 28 FEVRIER A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 16.4 SUD / 79.0 EST
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2490 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 12 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 18S/77.2E
CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 18.9S/74.7E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 19.2S/72.5E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.

#109 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 7:45 pm

120kts now forecast.

WTIO30 FMEE 280039

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/10/20052006
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA)

2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 0000 UTC :
16.4S / 79.0E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 MOINS /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350
50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 17.3S/78.2E, MAX WIND=120KT, VERY INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 18.0S/77.2E, MAX WIND=120KT, VERY INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 18.6S/76.0E, MAX WIND=120KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 18.9S/74.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 19.1S/73.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 19.2S/72.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.5
THE SYSTEM IS TOTALLY SYMETRIC, 250NM DIAMETER, WITH A SMALL EYE OF 15 NM
DIAMETER.
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IS COLDER AND COLDER, SHOWING THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING,
AND THEN TO HEAD FOR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES TO THE SOUTHWEST; IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

#110 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 7:50 pm

0046 GMT

wxmann_91 · #111 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 8:31 pm

Wow was I wrong. Though still anticipating weakening to commence soon.

#112 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 8:34 pm

GREAT LOOP!!!

#113 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 8:40 pm

EVERYONE, I HAVE THE PLEASURE TO PRESENT, 2006 FIRST REAL MONSTER!

#114 Postby **JtSmarts** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 8:51 pm

Im getting flashbacks to 2005

wxmann_91 · #115 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:21 pm

This is a very good sat image...

#116 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:24 pm

what a monster look!!! :uarrow:

#117 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:32 pm

i like the blue IR :bday:

cheezyWXguy · #118 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:35 pm

Geez!! Maybe this one's gonna reach CAT 5!!! I wouldnt be suprised...only 10mph away!

#119 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:36 pm

cheezywxman wrote:Geez!! Maybe this one's gonna reach CAT 5!!! I wouldnt be suprised...only 10mph away!

If NRL is correct, then just 6 mph!!!

cheezyWXguy · #120 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:47 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
cheezywxman wrote:Geez!! Maybe this one's gonna reach CAT 5!!! I wouldnt be suprised...only 10mph away!

If NRL is correct, then just 6 mph!!!

Actually thats what I meant but you know how the advisories go by 5's so the 1st number it would have as a CAT 5 is 160, not 156

Indian Ocean:Tropical Cyclone Carina

Who is online