ERC'S at landfall?

[Jim Cantore]

I've noticed several of these storms, some are obvious ERC's, others I'm not sure about, these are some I wonder about

Fran
Opal
Floyd
Michelle
Lili
Emily (in cozumel)

[JonathanBelles]

erc?

[Hurricanehink]

Eyewall Replacement Cycle

[JonathanBelles]

o duh ok

[MiamiensisWx]

I think Emily was undergoing an ERC at both Mexican landfalls.

[wxmann_91]

Gilbert 1988 at Cancun landfall is the best example I could think of, as well as Wilma at Cozumel and Cancun landfalls.

[cheezyWXguy]

Im pretty sure Emily was...Did you guys see the pic of her under Cuba at her top strength? that easily out did Dennis that year and I was Impressed with Dennis. Then did you see Emily at landfall? there was no eye...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/archi ... ontage.gif

[HurricaneBill]

Wilma definitely finished one prior to landfall on the Yucatan. The eye cleared up and her overall structure improved.

[wxmann_91]

Wilma definitely finished one prior to landfall on the Yucatan. The eye cleared up and her overall structure improved.

As she finished one she started one again as she was making landfall on the Yucatan. Radar data supports this.

[f5]

Emily looks like Charley's sister from the wide satallite vantiage point.she smaller than Andrew

[Derek Ortt]

even though Wilma had finished an EWRC just before landfall at Cozemul, the winds increased very rapidly and they were nearly back to cat 5 status. Wilma hit the Yucatan at 130KT

[wxman57]

It looks like Rita was beginning an ERC at landfall as well. Frances and Jeanne of 2004 were, too, at landfall. Eyewall replacement cycles are quite common in major hurricanes. They happen all the time, just about every day. However, they generally go unnoticed (or unrecognized by the NHC) out over the ocean. They're very difficult to predict, so the NHC will just typically keep the intensity constant rather than indicate a Cat 3 is weakening to a Cat 1 or 2 every day then going back up to a 3. In 1980, Allen went from a Cat 5 to a Cat 3 every day for 3 days as it crossed the Caribbean.

I don't think Lili was undergoing an ERC at landfall, more like an EDC (eyewall dissipation cycle - made that up) due to shear and dry air entrainment.

[f5]

didn't Dry air have a role in Rita's case also beacuse the western semicircle was eroding somewhat

[wxman57]

didn't Dry air have a role in Rita's case also beacuse the western semicircle was eroding somewhat

Definitely.

[Jim Cantore]

It looks like Rita was beginning an ERC at landfall as well. Frances and Jeanne of 2004 were, too, at landfall. Eyewall replacement cycles are quite common in major hurricanes. They happen all the time, just about every day. However, they generally go unnoticed (or unrecognized by the NHC) out over the ocean. They're very difficult to predict, so the NHC will just typically keep the intensity constant rather than indicate a Cat 3 is weakening to a Cat 1 or 2 every day then going back up to a 3. In 1980, Allen went from a Cat 5 to a Cat 3 every day for 3 days as it crossed the Caribbean.

I don't think Lili was undergoing an ERC at landfall, more like an EDC (eyewall dissipation cycle - made that up) due to shear and dry air entrainment.

are there certain conditions to stimulate it also?

it seems upcoming landfalls have been around the time of ERC'S

[wxmann_91]

Wilma definitely finished one prior to landfall on the Yucatan. The eye cleared up and her overall structure improved.

As she finished one she started one again as she was making landfall on the Yucatan. Radar data supports this.

BTW here's an image for those interested




And the weird thing is she was doing it over land, after emerging into the GOM:

[cheezyWXguy]

Geez! I cant beleive what Derek Ortt said was true how it jetted up to 130 kts with such a big eye forming!! Wouldnt that cause it to maintain strength or only strengthen it very slowly?

But just hink about how much trouble florida wouldve been in if Wilma had missed the Yucatan...that would bring it in with at least CAT 4 winds...that wouldnt have been he only close call in the last 2 years tho...I remember them saying that if Ivan had curved east more then Florida wouldve had to deal with ivan as a CAT 5.
thats WAYYY scary!!

[Derek Ortt]

the dropsondes indicated a possible cat 5 Yucatan landfall as a drop recorded 137KT, though BT shows 130. The 137 may not have been representative and may have been a spot wind

That just shows how quick the winds re-intensify once an EWRC is complete

Had Wilma not have hit the Yucatan, I am not sure how much worse it would have been. I do not believe that the upper level environment could have supported greater than a low end cat 4 (which I personally believe Wilma was when it hit the crocs, but believe it was weaker than NHC indicated when it hit the people). Therefore, Florida received about as bad as they could have received

[Scorpion]

I actually think Wilma hitting the Yucatan helped it cause more damage to South Florida. Had Wilma not have made landfall it likely would have kept its smaller eyewall, and hence could have been less resilient to the shear and lower SST's. Also the smaller eyewall would have impacted less people.

[cheezyWXguy]

But either way its pretty amazing that Wilma may have made it back to CAT 5 just before it hit the coast...That storm was probably the fastest strengthener of all time (one night its a High end CAT 1 and the next morning its the strongest ever! When I saw that I almost fell out of my chair! I started rubbing my eyes to make sure they were correct and slapped myself in the face multiple times to make sure I wasnt dreaming)