MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0600 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN...NRN WI AND THE WRN UPPER MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 241200Z - 241800Z
   
   BANDS OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP W-E ACROSS NRN MN INTO NRN WI AND WRN
   UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z.  HEAVIEST SNOW /HOURLY RATES 1-1.5 INCHES/
   WILL FALL 40-50 MILES N-S OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 30W KIMT-35SW
   KDLH-KFAR. 
   
   12Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER SWRN ND WITH A WARM FRONT SEWD
   INTO ERN SD.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE SD/ND
   BORDER THIS MORNING...THEN INTO SWRN MN BY 18Z.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE LOW...ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE
   ALREADY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.  SHORT TERM MODELS ALL AGREE THAT
   H85-H7 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BECOME QUITE INTENSE ACROSS NRN
   MN...NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z. 
   
   THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL LIKELY BE DEEPER ACROSS NRN PARTS OF
   MN/WI PER RECENT SREF AND 06Z ETA.  THIS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG
   FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW.  RECENT RADAR
   IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS THIS SCENARIO UPSTREAM ACROSS THE RED RVR VLY
   WITH A 30-35 DBZ SNOWBAND VCNTY KFAR.
   
   AFTER THE COLUMN BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY MOIST...THE HEAVIER BANDS OF
   SNOW WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP MORE QUICKLY THAN THE 06Z ETA SOLUTIONS.
   THIS SUGGESTS PERHAPS AN EARLIER TIMING DOWNSTREAM.  CURRENT
   EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE NCNTRL-NERN MN
   AREA BY 16Z...AND INTO NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI NEAR/JUST AFTER 18Z.
   GIVEN 15-20:1 RATIOS...SNOWFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 1-1.5 INCHES PER
   HOUR IN THE STRONGEST BANDS.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...
   
   47139659 47599561 47589381 47319235 46989106 46668946
   46348880 45748890 45468926 45368982 45399084 45629221
   45859360 46079485 46319600 46679645

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN...NRN WI...SRN/WRN U.P. OF MI/NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 241812Z - 250015Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NRN MN/NWRN WI AND
   PORTIONS OF WRN LOWER MI THROUGH 21Z. FURTHER EAST...A NARROW
   ...40-50 MILES WIDE...BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ESEWD INTO
   NERN WI...SWRN/SCENTRAL U.P OF MI AND NRN LOWER MI BETWEEN 20-00Z.
   THE AXIS OF THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY FROM IMT TO 35
   S OF PLN.  HRLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN WILL BE LIKELY.
   
   17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM A
   SURFACE LOW OVER NERN SD INTO SRN WI. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WAA NORTH
   OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN SATURATION OF LOW-MID LEVELS
   OVER SRN U.P OF MI/NRN LOWER MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
   STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER
   /COINCIDENT WITH DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH/ WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF HEAVY
   SNOW ESEWD AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED UPPER VORT MAX INTO NERN WI...THE SRN
   U.P OF MI/NRN LOWER MI BETWEEN 20-00Z. IN ADDITION TO THE
   AFOREMENTIONED STRONG VERTICAL MOTION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   OF 7-7.5 DEG C/KM WILL DEVELOP EWD AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
   ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL RATES. DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
   /BELOW 850 MB/ AS EVIDENT BY SURFACE OBS OVER NERN WI/SRN U.P OF MI
   AND NRN LOWER MI...HEAVY SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT IN THE MID-LEVELS JUST
   ABOVE THIS LAYER /PER RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVELY/ SHOULD AID IN A
   SATURATION AND SURFACE HVY SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 02/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...
   
   47009440 47429382 47309276 46839030 46128718 45548463
   45068442 44558484 44528564 44598651 44878755 45128846
   45508974 46179231 46489375 46729414

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0717 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 250117Z - 250515Z
   
   A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL
   CONTINUE TO AFFECT NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI THROUGH
   04 UTC. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS
   FORCING WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NEWD OVER LAKE HURON AND SRN ONTARIO.
   
   AT 0030 UTC...RADAR LOOPS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED 30 TO
   40 MILE WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXTENDING FROM ABOUT
   CHARLEVOIX COUNTY EWD TO ABOUT OGEMAW COUNTY IN NRN LOWER MI.
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN REGION OF DEEP
   SATURATION WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT
   HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL PERSIST OVER NRN LOWER MI THROUGH 04 UTC.
   LATEST RUC PREDICTION THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS FRONTOGENETICAL
   FORCING/STRONG ASCENT INTO SRN ONTARIO THEREAFTER. ONGOING SNOW
   RATES AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04 UTC AND
   THEN DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 04 AND 06 UTC.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 02/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...
   
   45578520 45418430 44958336 44418324 43868238 43158244
   43568325 44328463 44608572 45018597

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY...NRN AND CENTRAL  VT/NH...SWRN ME
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 251745Z - 252345Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM NRN NY INTO NRN/CENTRAL VT/NH AND
   SWRN ME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES
   AROUND 1 INCH WILL BE LIKELY. THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
   ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE IN A 30-40 MILE WIDE ZONE CENTERED FROM ART
   TO 20 S OF MPV TO LCI TO PWM. HEAVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OUT
   OF MOST THE AREA...EXCEPT SWRN ME...BY 00Z.
   
   LATEST IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX OVER ERN LAKE
   ONTARIO WITH A DRY SLOT EXTENDING SWWD INTO WRN NY/PA. MID LEVEL
   FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED ALONG AND EAST OF
   THE VORT LOBE TRACK AND NORTH OF THE DRY SLOT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   THIS PLACES MOST OF NRN NY...NRN/CENTRAL VT/NH AND SWRN ME IN A
   FAVORABLE ZONE FOR ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION. RECENT
   SFC/RADAR OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THIS STRONG VERTICAL MOTION ALREADY
   DEVELOPING OVER NWRN NY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO
   NRN/CENTRAL VT/NH AND SWRN ME THROUGH 00Z. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
   STRONG VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER /8-10 KFT/ OF
   DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AND LOW SNOW-WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS /20:1/
   DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS...WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW WITH HRLY
   RATES AROUND 1 INCH IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 02/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   44127012 44497103 44777433 44507563 44027604 43577574
   43467395 43337260 43197140 43487029

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0172
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 PM CST WED MAR 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI SEWD INTO NRN OH AND WRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 020520Z - 021115Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI...PRIOR TO A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND
   EVENTUALLY SNOW.  HOURLY RATES APPROACHING .05 TO .10 INCH CAN BE
   EXPECTED WITHIN CONVECTIVE BURSTS.  FARTHER TO THE SE OVER NRN OH
   INTO WRN PA...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY
   MORNING.
   
   00Z OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW POTENT
   VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
   02/12Z.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
   SWRN OR W-CNTRL IL WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING GENERALLY EWD
   ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  A COMPLEX PRECIPITATION SHIELD WAS ASSOCIATED
   WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AS OF 05Z...WITH A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF
   MODERATE FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM NRN MN INTO
   LOWER MI.  WHILE MUCH OF THIS IS SNOW...A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN IS
   BEING REPORTED FROM NEAR OSH EWD TO FNT AND JXN.
   
   VAD AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   AND WAA ABOVE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION ARE LARGELY DRIVING THIS BAND OF
   FREEZING PRECIPITATION...THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH IS OCCURRING OVER
   SERN WI WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE .05 TO .07 LIQUID
   EQUIVALENT.  HERE...IT APPEARS THAT STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND DEEPER-LAYER LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM
   ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTIVE CHARACTER OF ECHOES. WITH
   TIME...EXPECT THESE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BURSTS TO SHIFT EWD INTO
   PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI...LOCALLY SUPPORTING AN INCREASE
   IN PRECIPITATION RATES.  FREEZING RAIN...MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET
   WILL GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS MELTING EFFECTS AND INCREASED
   DYNAMIC FORCING COOL THE THERMODYNAMIC COLUMN.
   
   OVER PORTIONS OF NRN OH INTO WRN PA...INCREASING WAA ALONG NOSE OF
   40-45 KT SWLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AFTER
   02/06Z WITH THE PRIMARY TYPE BEING FREEZING RAIN.  RECENT LIGHTNING
   STRIKES OBSERVED OVER FAR SERN OH INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SOME
   ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.  THEREFORE... POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
   FOR BURSTS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...
   
   43878668 44058581 43228321 42098068 41647977 41017898
   40387892 40177964 40648164 41058291 41708484 42238583
   42758661 43088707 43398708

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0173
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0404 AM CST THU MAR 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NRN MD/DE...NJ
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 021004Z - 021600Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN WAS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CNTRL PA EARLY
   TODAY AND SHOULD SPREAD EAST TO WRN NJ THROUGH DAYBREAK. POCKETS OF
   MODERATE ICING COULD OCCUR WITH GLAZE AMOUNTS POSSIBLY REACHING 0.25
   INCHES THROUGH 18Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREEZING RAIN COULD
   PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER ICING.
   
   A STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE WAS UNDERCUTTING A MEAN RIDGE ACROSS THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES EARLY TODAY. AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS
   ASSOCIATED WITH JET EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY IMPULSE AND
   ENTRANCE REGION OF DOWNSTREAM JET CORE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND HAVE
   ENHANCED SLOPED ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE
   ALLEGHENYS. DEEP LAYER LIFT ACROSS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO
   GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TO NJ AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS
   THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE DEVELOPS SEWD AND INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
   MOVES EAST ALONG A WARM FRONT TO NRN VA.
   
   SREF AND LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
   WEST-TO-EAST ZONE...FROM CNTRL PA TO NJ...WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
   PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
   CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AIR AND MOISTURE NEWD ATOP A WELL ENTRENCHED
   SUBFREEZING SURFACE LAYER RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
   LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. POCKETS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...ORIGINATING WITHIN A PLUME OF WARMER AIR ACROSS MIDWEST AND
   PLAINS...COUPLED WITH FORCED ASCENT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT...COULD
   ALSO INDUCE ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTMS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COULD
   RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER GLAZE AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...BULK OF THE
   FREEZING RAIN SHOULD REMAIN STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH ACCUMULATIONS
   GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR THROUGH THE MORNING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...
   
   40037841 40257901 40367940 40607998 41158025 41448041
   41878010 41897935 41917868 41877812 41847735 41687628
   41497540 40927431 39907453 39597549 39667689 39797739

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0174
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0806 AM CST THU MAR 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...SRN/SERN NY...CT...RI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 021406Z - 022000Z
   
   SNOWFALL INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING FROM NERN PA
   ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN CT. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 1
   INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC AREA.
   
   SURFACE LOW....CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR SWRN PA...IS EXPECTED TO
   REDEVELOP EWD TO NJ COAST WHILE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   AS A PAIR OF PHASING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH SWRN
   PERIPHERY OF DEEP POLAR VORTEX OVER ERN QUEBEC. MODEST WARM AIR AND
   MOISTURE ADVECTION WERE ALREADY UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE LOW FROM THE
   OH VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA AND NJ. A LAYER OF WARMER AIR ALOFT HAS
   RESULTED IN PRIMARILY MIXED PRECIPITATION /FREEZING RAIN AND SOME
   ICE PELLETS/ ACROSS PA. HOWEVER...COLD AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
   MASS EXISTS ACROSS SERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL BE DRAWN
   INTO THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW LATER THIS MORNING. COUPLED WITH
   INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMIC AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL
   LIKELY BE OFFSET AND BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW SHOULD FORM IN THE NRN/NWRN
   QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE.
   
   LATEST SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FORECASTING A STRIP OF AT LEAST 1 INCH
   PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES FROM NY SRN TIER TO CT THROUGH 18Z AND THIS
   APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
   
   41477559 41877654 42177636 42347590 42067424 42027303
   41857229 41727161 41397133 41017211 41047361

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 PM CST THU MAR 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 022003Z - 030000Z
   
   A PERSISTENT BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH UP 1 INCH PER HOUR
   SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
   EVENING ACROSS SRN NY...SRN NEW ENGLAND AND FAR NRN PA. A LARGE AREA
   OF PERIODIC FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
   EWD ACROSS ERN PA...NRN NJ...SRN NY AND LONG ISLAND.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DUAL-CENTERED SFC LOW FROM FAR NRN
   VA EXTENDING EWD OFF THE COAST OF DELAWARE. NORTH OF THIS SFC
   LOW...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS NY AND PA WITH
   THE FREEZING LINE LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURG EXTENDING EWD
   INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA. AS THE NOSE OF AN IMPRESSIVE 100 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
   AFTERNOON...INCREASING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND JUST
   NORTH OF THE FREEZING LINE SHOW A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB
   WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB. THIS SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL
   BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY ENHANCING FREEZING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE
   FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW
   EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS COOL AFTER DARK.
   
   NORTH OF THIS ZONE...A BAND OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SHIFT
   EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY SLOT
   EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PUNCHES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
   RESULT...HEAVY SNOW OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WILL GRADUALLY
   DIMINISH. WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN NEW
   ENGLAND.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PHI...
   
   41597814 41847836 42227836 42637810 42877726 42837501
   42757325 42757176 42647090 42207028 41607010 41267028
   41047083
   
   41557810 41087713 40757556 40637427 40627265 40807137
   40967081

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 AM CST SUN MAR 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NWRN IL AND FAR SWRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 050632Z - 051230Z
   
   A MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS ERN
   IA...NWRN IL AND FAR SWRN WI OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. HRLY LIQUID
   ACCUMULATION RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.10 IN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ERN
   IA.
   
   STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA EVIDENT ON REGIONAL PROFILER/VWP DATA ALONG
   WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE
   PRECIPITATION OVER SRN/CENTRAL IA SWD INTO NRN MO. EWD MOVEMENT OF
   THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
   DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 3 KM/S. 06Z SURFACE WET-BULB
   TEMPERATURES OVER ERN IA AND NWRN IL/SWRN WI WERE IN THE 28-32
   DEGREE RANGE...GIVEN PRESENCE OF LOW DEWPTS IN THE TEENS/MID 20S.
   THUS AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION...A CHANGE FROM LIGHT
   RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER ONSET IS EXPECTED.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PTYPE ALGORITHMS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
   INDICATE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY PTYPE OVER ERN IA...DUE
   TO THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DEEP ELEVATED WARM LAYER CENTERED
   AROUND 850 MB. FURTHER EAST OVER NWRN IL/FAR SWRN WI...A MIX OF
   SLEET AND SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE WARM LAYER IS LESSER OR
   NON-EXISTENT. DUE TO THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT /300 J/KG OF
   MUCAPE ON THE 00Z OMAHA SOUNDING/ MODERATE PRECIPITATION RATES IN
   EXCESS OF 0.10 IN/HR ARE POSSIBLE OVER ERN IA.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
   
   41818964 42678972 43029032 43339113 43239153 43129194
   42599233 42209221 41719206 41119169 40959114 40889080
   40899033 41308971

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0190
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1234 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 081834Z - 082230Z
   
   SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 21Z WITH UP TO 2 IN/HR RATES
   IN UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG FRONT RANGE.
   
   WEAK SURFACE COLD ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS AS WINDS BACK AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT IN RESPONSE TO
   DEEPENING PRESSURES TO THE SOUTH. JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WARM
   ADVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED WHICH WILL KEEP PROFILES SATURATED WITH
   MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL MANAGE
   TO COOL DESPITE THIS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENS.
   GIVEN SEVERAL HOURS OF SATURATED AND COOLING PROFILES ALONG WITH
   UPSLOPE FLOW...2-4 HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE LIKELY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...
   
   40940582 41130561 41080521 41020490 40880473 40660466
   40500468 40150465 39920456 39680446 39480436 38880481
   38820507 38970537 39860584 40530583

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0226
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1104 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL NEB...CNTRL SD AND FAR SE ND
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 110504Z - 111000Z
   
   CORRECTED TO PLACE TIME IN FIRST PARAGRAPH.
   
   A NARROW CORRIDOR OF BANDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL TAKE SHAPE
   FROM PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL NEB THROUGH CNTRL SD INTO FAR SE ND.
   SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z.
   
   SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NEWD
   OVERNIGHT AND STRENGTHEN ON NOSE OF 130 KT JET ACROSS THE CNTRL
   PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NEAR MCK WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARDS FSD
   BY 12Z. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
   PROGGED TO COMMENCE TO THE NW OF THE LOW FROM CNTRL NEB INTO ERN SD.
   RUC/NAM-ETA SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SHARP DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN 800
   AND 700 MB WITH FULL SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER AROUND 600
   MB. SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RIBBON OF
   GREATER THAN 0.30 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENTS IN A 3 HR PERIOD. NAM-WRF
   HAS BEST REPRESENTATION OF QPF THIS EVENING AND SUPPORTS AN INCREASE
   IN QPF OVERNIGHT AS BATCH OF SNOWFALL OVER N-CNTRL NEB LIFTS INTO
   CNTRL SD.
   
   FURTHER EAST FROM AROUND 9V9 TO ABR...RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
   SNOW AS WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES COOL TO FREEZING WITH INCREASED
   DYNAMICAL LIFTING OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD LIE
   JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE WITH RATES OF 1 IN/HR LIKELY.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...
   
   43950140 45260019 46369876 46379716 44709882 43479976
   42250086 42450219

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0232
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0631 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN AZ INTO SRN UT
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 111231Z - 111830Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD TODAY.
   LOCALIZED SNOW RATES APPROACHING 2-3 INCHES/HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.  ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING
   GRADIENT FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
   DRIFTING.
   
   TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION
   SHIELD FROM SERN CA/NRN BAJA NEWD INTO SWRN AND CNTRL AZ...IN
   ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE SRN CA COAST. THUS
   FAR...WINTER PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND PLATEAU REGION
   HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING OWING TO RELATIVELY STRONG
   SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW /PER AREA VWPS/.  HOWEVER...WITH THE APPROACH OF
   THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...INCREASED DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED
   WITH THIS OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SNOW
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  MOREOVER...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A
   CONTINUATION OF EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WHICH WILL
   SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES.
   
   EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES /PRIMARILY ABOVE 3000 FT MSL/ TO
   BEGIN AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HOURLY SNOW
   RATES OF 1-2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED BURSTS EXCEEDING 3
   INCHES POSSIBLE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...
   
   32681040 34251332 34841446 35931460 37031375 37611305
   37981234 37811074 36710926 34260915 33090908 32410941

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/FAR NW MN
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 111354Z - 111800Z
   
   BANDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY N THIS
   MORNING ACROSS ERN ND/FAR NW MN. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR
   ARE LIKELY.
   
   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG AN AREA OF STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS ZONE NOW STRETCHES
   INTO ERN ND/FAR NW MN CO-LOCATED WITH CURRENT SNOW BAND SEEN ON KMVX
   RADAR. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN ERN SD HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT
   DARKENING TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN WV IMAGERY...INDICATING A
   SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE WAVE. SURFACE LOW IN W-CNTRL MN IS
   PROGGED TO LIFT ALMOST DUE N TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION BY 21Z
   THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP THE DEFORMATION ZONE AXIS
   ALIGNED ROUGHLY NORTH-TO-SOUTH ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL
   SUPPORT HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. RUC/NAM-ETA INDICATE WEAKENING OF THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
   LATER THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS THE
   HEAVIEST SNOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   48909554 47009621 46009729 46189861 47449826 48999797

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0235
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1021 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...HEAVY SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 111621Z - 112115Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CA...INCLUDING THE SAN GABRIEL/SAN
   BERNARDINO/SAN JACINTO/LAGUNA MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ABOVE 2000-2500 FT.
   SNOW RATES OF 2 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON...WITH 3 IN/HR POSSIBLE WITH
   THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
   
   IN PRESENCE OF STRONG/DEEP UPPER TROUGH PER WV IMAGERY...RATHER COLD
   VERTICAL PROFILES EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AS EVIDENCED BY 12Z RAOBS
   FROM VANDENBERG/EDWARDS AFB/SAN DIEGO THIS MORNING. MESONET
   OBSERVATIONS/REPORTS ARE ALREADY INDICATIVE OF SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS
   2000-2500 FT...WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE FLUCTUATION EXPECTED PER
   LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. STRONG JET DYNAMICS/OROGRAPHIC ASCENT
   WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
   CA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...EVIDENCED VIA 12Z OBSERVED
   RAOBS AND CG LIGHTNING FOCUSED ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...STEEP
   LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOW RATES WITH
   LOCALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...VEF...SGX...LOX...
   
   33921653 33681640 33251642 32671635 32701675 33331698
   33861729 34031756 34101782 34431777 34341678

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0244
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL AZ
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 120139Z - 120545Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE/GRADUALLY FOCUS PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD
   THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL AZ...WITH
   SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2500 FT.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS FEATURE DEEP/COLD UPPER
   TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
   JET WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN CA INTO THE
   SOUTHWEST DESERTS. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND PRONOUNCED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT VIA STRONG MID LEVEL SW
   JET -- 60 KTS AT 700 MB IN TUCSON RAOB -- WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD
   HEAVY SNOW INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF AZ...WITH A GRADUAL
   EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW
   RATES OF 2 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON...WITH 3 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
   RATES...FURTHER EVIDENCED BY PERSISTENT LIGHTNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
   AZ.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
   35131217 35261138 34820989 34440915 33270848 33110909
   33341014 33521079 34021203 34281237 34641246

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0254
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1050 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 121650Z - 122115Z
   
   SNOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE/DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SD...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST MN...THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   HEAVIEST BANDS.
   
   WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN CO AND LEADING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PER WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY...EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER JET
   AND ONGOING WAA REGIME CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UVVS ACROSS SD.
   SIMILAR TO TRENDS ALREADY OBSERVED IN VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA ACROSS
   SOUTH CENTRAL SD...STRONG MID LEVEL /600-800 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL
   FORCING IN ADDITION TO MODEST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE
   WSW-ENE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS BANDING
   TENDENCY AND STRONG UVVS COINCIDENT WITH A DEEPLY SATURATED
   DENDRITIC LAYER WILL PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 IN/HR SNOW RATES.
   TRENDS/SHORT TERM WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
   LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SD GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST
   NORTH OF I-90...AND INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...UNR...
   
   44640284 44930081 45449797 45439609 44519587 44259620
   43549785 43190036 43140140 43230230

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0281
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...NW WI...WRN U.P. OF MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 131357Z - 131900Z
   
   A LARGE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LIFT NEWD THIS MORNING
   FROM SERN MN AND NW WI TOWARDS THE WRN U.P. OF MI. SNOWFALL RATES OF
   1 TO 1.5 IN/HR ARE LIKELY WITH LOCAL AREAS UP TO 2 IN/HR IN
   CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
   
   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING TO THE NW OF A
   STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN SW WI. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEWD OVER LK
   MI BY 21Z. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BAND HAS BEEN COINCIDENT WITH
   A STRONG AREA OF 700 TO 650 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW-MID LEVEL
   ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING SHOWED A DEFORMATION AXIS
   AROUND THIS LEVEL WITH NEARLY FULL SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC
   LAYER. BOTH 12Z RUC/06Z NAM-WRF MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH LIFTING
   THE STRONG AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS TOWARD WRN U.P. OF MI AND LK
   SUPERIOR. 09Z SREF GUIDANCE IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE RUC/NAM-WRF
   MODELS IN PRODUCING THE HEAVIEST QPF THIS MORNING FROM THE SERN TWIN
   CITIES METRO NEWD INTO WRN U.P. OF MI. THIS HEAVIEST QPF LINES UP
   REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BAND SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS...AND WILL
   RESULT IN 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
   MUCAPES FROM 250 TO 500 J/KG HAS ALLOWED CONVECTIVE SNOW/SLEET TO
   FORM FARTHER EAST ACROSS CNTRL WI. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
   SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 IN/HR AS THESE CONVECTIVE BANDS LIFT
   NORTH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   44089462 44819422 45439309 46409117 46809017 47388868
   46538669 46128690 45688874 44269084 43749153 43559237
   43599401

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0294
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 AM CST THU MAR 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN SD / SRN MN / NRN IA / SWRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 160846Z - 161445Z
   
   THROUGH 12Z-15Z...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES
   APPROACHING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS DISCUSSION
   AREA.
   
   AS OF 08Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN NEB WITH
   AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD THROUGH SWRN IA AND THEN SEWD
   INTO SRN IL.  THUS FAR...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
   MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH 1) MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
   ZONE FROM CNTRL MN INTO CNTRL WI...AND 2) WITHIN VORTICITY MAXIMUM
   DEFORMATION AREA OR COLD CONVEYOR BELT OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND
   ERN SD.  HOWEVER...LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST
   THAT A SECONDARY BAND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED ACROSS
   DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LARGELY DRIVEN BY DIRECT
   THERMAL CIRCULATION ARISING FROM INTENSIFYING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
   850-800 MB LAYER.
   
   CORRESPONDING NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT INITIALLY DRY
   LOW-LEVELS /I.E. BELOW 800 MB/ WILL UNDERGO TOP-DOWN SATURATION
   OWING TO THE INCREASED MESOSCALE FORCING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP
   SATURATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...INCLUDING
   THAT PORTION THAT ENHANCES DENDRITE GROWTH. THUS...EXPECT PERIODS OF
   HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 09-10Z...CONTINUE THROUGH
   MID-MORNING...PRIOR TO DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY FROM W TO E ACROSS
   THE AREA.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
   
   44449632 44619424 44369222 43418993 42338979 42059059
   42739347 43169553 43349626 43729689

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0295
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0109 PM CST THU MAR 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN WI/NORTHEAST IA/NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
   INDIANA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 161909Z - 162345Z
   
   MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
   SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/NORTHEAST IA INTO NORTHERN IL AND
   THE GREATER CHICAGO AREA THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES OF 1
   IN/HR OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS OPEN/LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE -- CENTERED
   NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AT 19Z -- PROGRESSING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH COMPACT SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IL. IN
   PRESENCE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...LOW LEVEL WAA/THETA-E
   INFLUX AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG ISENTROPIC
   OMEGA OVER A RELATIVELY CONFINED AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/EASTERN IA
   INTO NORTHERN IL/NORTHERN INDIANA. SIMILAR TO ECHO BANDING TREND IN
   WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY ALREADY NOTED ALONG A DUBUQUE IA-ROCKFORD
   IL-O'HARE/ORD CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FRONTOGENETICAL
   FORCING/WEAK STATIC STABILITY WILL PROMOTE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS BANDING TENDENCY COMBINED WITH AMPLE
   OMEGA THROUGH A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER /PER RUC SOUNDINGS/ WILL
   BE FAVORABLE FOR 1 IN/HR OR GREATER SNOW RATES ON A LOCALIZED BASIS.
   INITIAL DRY/MILD LOW LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
   WILL BE QUICKLY SATURATED/COOLED VIA AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   42018984 42119069 42459152 42999155 43769099 43818995
   43488862 42988792 41388632 41158728

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0313
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND NORTH
   CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEB
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 191116Z - 191545Z
   
   MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTH
   CENTRAL SD AND NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NEB THROUGH MID MORNING.
   SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR THROUGH 15Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST
   CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB.
   
   ON PERIPHERY OF WESTERN STATES BROAD TROUGH...SEVERAL SUBTLE
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PER WV IMAGERY...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND
   COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
   ORIENTED PRECIPITATION SHIELD THIS MORNING FROM WEST CENTRAL SD TO
   SOUTHEAST NEB. WHILE CURRENT TRENDS/SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST A
   MODEST NORTHEASTWARD TRANSITION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW THROUGH EARLY
   MORNING...INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL
   DRY ADVECTION WILL TEND TO HINDER LOW LEVEL SATURATION...LEADING TO
   A SHARP DEMARKATION OF THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHEAST NEB.
   
   THE MOST FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR MODERATE/LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW THROUGH
   MID MORNING WILL LIKELY BE ALONG A PHILIP SD TO
   AINSWORTH-O'NEILL-COLUMBUS NEB AXIS. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...RUC
   SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SUSTAINED DURATION OF AMPLE UVVS JUXTAPOSED WITH
   A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER...IN ADDITION TO PRESENCE OF MODEST
   POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...
   
   44470341 45130244 44499988 42019723 41179706 40959785
   41419929 42490077 43690197 43740312