Doomsday storms
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Derek Ortt
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Jim Cantore
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Jim Cantore
Andrews 17 feet was in Biscayne Bay. The surges on the ocean were all under 10 feet and simulations indicated that even for a large surge, the ocean cannot produce a surge much above 10 feet, even for a large cat 5. Of Sfla, only Dade has Biscayne Bay (and even that has the ridge line I mentioned earlier), the rest of the coast is just like Cayman, meaning Miami canes are wind events, which as Wilma showed, are more than sufficient to be destructive
Doesn't the deeper water allow higher waves? So Miami Beach may get only a 10 foot storm surge in a Katrina sized Cat 5, but wouldn't that 10 foot storm surge be accompanied by 40 foot waves???
Surely, the lower floors of the Miami Beach oceanfront condos and hotels would be totally gutted with this type of wave action, no?
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Derek Ortt
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Jim Cantore
Peak Strength 170mph
Landfalls
Assorted Islands: 145, 150mph
Long Beach Island New Jersey: 135mph
Damage total: $500 Billion
Deaths: 100,000
Peak Strength: 175mph
Landfalls
Cat Island (Bahamas): 155mph
Big Pine Key: 165mph
Key West: 165mph
Dauphin Island: 145mph
Damage total: $150 Billion
Deaths: 15,000-25,000
Peak Strength 140mph
Landfalls
Cat Island: 65mph
Sandy Hook: 120mph
Queens: 115mph
Bridgeport: 115mph
Damage total: $250 Billion
Deaths: 50,000-75,000
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
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- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Hurricane Floyd wrote:
Peak Strength 170mph
Landfalls
Assorted Islands: 145, 150mph
Long Beach Island New Jersey: 135mph
Damage total: $500 Billion
Deaths: 100,000
Peak Strength: 175mph
Landfalls
Cat Island (Bahamas): 155mph
Big Pine Key: 165mph
Key West: 165mph
Dauphin Island: 145mph
Damage total: $150 Billion
Deaths: 15,000-25,000
Peak Strength 140mph
Landfalls
Cat Island: 65mph
Sandy Hook: 120mph
Queens: 115mph
Bridgeport: 115mph
Damage total: $250 Billion
Deaths: 50,000-75,000
1 seem very unlikely, but scenerios 2 and 3 are quite possible
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spinfan4eva
- Category 1
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- Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 1:27 am
- Location: Jacksonville, Florida
- Contact:
I would find it very hard to believe that death tolls in our lifetime from a hurricane would ever top 1,000 again in the US unless there was a major forecast problem after what the nation saw with Katrina. People are learning to heed the warnings after they see the destruction storm after storm.
Now if there was a charley like incident where say a cat 3 was forecasted to hit say Rhode Island or Jersey, and it makes a last minute turn to the right crossing Long Island, catching people off guard and people wouldnt have time to leave.
Now if there was a charley like incident where say a cat 3 was forecasted to hit say Rhode Island or Jersey, and it makes a last minute turn to the right crossing Long Island, catching people off guard and people wouldnt have time to leave.
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Derek Ortt
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cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
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- Location: Dallas, TX
Hurricane Floyd wrote:
Peak Strength 170mph
Landfalls
Assorted Islands: 145, 150mph
Long Beach Island New Jersey: 135mph
Damage total: $500 Billion
Deaths: 100,000
[img]http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b264/Generation15Mako/DD3.jpg
[/img]
Peak Strength: 175mph
Landfalls
Cat Island (Bahamas): 155mph
Big Pine Key: 165mph
Key West: 165mph
Dauphin Island: 145mph
Damage total: $150 Billion
Deaths: 15,000-25,000
Peak Strength 140mph
Landfalls
Cat Island: 65mph
Sandy Hook: 120mph
Queens: 115mph
Bridgeport: 115mph
Damage total: $250 Billion
Deaths: 50,000-75,000
now the tracks on these seem pretty possible, but I think those numbers on the 1st and 3rd ones are way too high
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Hybridstorm_November2001
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- Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
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The Northern branch of the first track looks similar to the "Great September Gale of 1815", but a tad to far south near the end.
http://gsa.confex.com/gsa/2006NE/finalp ... 100309.htm
http://gsa.confex.com/gsa/2006NE/finalp ... 100309.htm
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Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
Here is my idea of a Dooms Day storm:
**These dates are all hypothetical and are there to make this scenario easier to follow. Any real occurrence of the following situation is completely by coincidence.**
August 2nd (7:15am) = A tropical wave is gaining strength just east of the Bahamas. The NHC has just issued a "Tropical Disturbance Statement" to say that this may be upgraded to a tropical depression later in the day.
August 2nd (11:23pm) = A ship reports 45mph sustained winds in the area of the disturbance. The NHC upgrades the system to a tropical storm. The forecast track takes it into the Miami area as a Cat. 2 hurricane in three days.
August 2nd (5pm) = The storm has gone through a burst of development and winds have been raised to 80mph. The system is now a hurricane. The 5pm track is a little further southward and it looks like the keys may be in for a Cat. 3 hurricane in less than 72 hours.
August 3rd (11am) = The storm is now a monster Cat. 3 storm with 130mph winds, and is still intensifying. The forecast is not calling for a Cat. 5 storm to move through the Florida straights in 50 hours. A Hurricane warning is issued for the keys and a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch is issued for southern Florida.
August 3rd (5pm) = At 5pm the storm officially becomes a cat. 5 with 160mph winds. The storm is currently skimming some of the central Bahama islands and wind gusts up to 125mph are being reported a good 80 miles from the eye wall!
August 3rd (11am) = The storm slows considerably just east of the Florida straights. Forecasters are baffled by the situation. In the 11am update the winds are upped to 175mph with a central pressure of 899mb.
August 3rd (11pm) = In the evening advisory winds are still at 175mph and the pressure is down to 897mb. The forecast still takes the storm through the FL straights.
August 4th (12:01am) = While most of southern Florida sleeps, the storm decides to rapidly speed up to nearly 25mph. The storm has also shifted direction and is heading WNW...Miami is now dead in the path of a storm that will make landfall in less than 24 hrs. An evacuation is ordered, but many do not hear of it for another 5-10 hours.
August 4th (11am) = The evacuation is called off as TS force winds cause highways to close. Everyone who did not already leave are trapped. Miami is in panic. Winds are now gusting to 66mph at the airport and thousands of power outages are being reported. The storm still has 175mph winds and hurricane force winds extend out 150 miles.
August 4th (2pm) = Hurricane force winds reach Miami.
August 4th (7pm) = The eye wall reaches Miami. The airport receives a gust to 181mph before the wind gage fails. Downtown skyscrapers sway violently in the high winds and glass windows shatter everywhere. Big chunks of the buildings siding begin to rain to the ground and all outside balconies are stripped off. The entire region of Florida south of West Palm Beach and Naples is without power.
August 5th (11am) = The storm now re-emerges into the Gulf with 115mph winds. The track now takes the system toward the Texas coast. In Miami there is total chaos. All downtown buildings are gutted and some have partially collapsed. Initial death toll estimates top 35,000 people and damage estimates top 100 billion dollars. All popular Miami beaches have been eroded off the earth. Miami is no more.
August 6th (11am) = The storm has regained Cat. 5 status in the Gulf and the track takes the storm toward Houston. Evacuations are ordered for the SE Texas coast and SW Louisiana. The storm is forecast to make landfall on August 9th.
August 7th (5pm) = The storm becomes the strongest in Atlantic basin history. Top winds reach 195mph and pressures fall to 870mb. The national media is in shock with what they are seeing. The track still has the storm moving for the Houston area.
August 8th (11am) = The storm weakens down to 180mph with a pressure of 888mb, but still looks as deadly as ever. Tropical force winds are expected to reach Houston this evening.
August 8th (7pm) = Houston Hobby reports gusts to 47mph and IAH records gusts to 42mph as the first bands move in. Isolated power outages are reported throughout SE Texas.
August 9th (12am) = People in Houston are hunkering down as gusts reach 77mph at Hobby and 69mph at IAH. At Galveston winds have now reached 74mph sustained with gusts to 99mph. 80% of the area is without power.
August 9th (5am) = The eye wall is coming ashore and people watch in shock as new reporters on Galveston island are swept away by surge and wind. The Galveston airport reports a gust to 169mph before the wind gage fails and Hobby is reporting gusts to 144mph. In north Houston, IAH is reporting gusts of 123mph. 100% of the area is without power. All skyscraper windows in Downtown Houston are blown out.
August 9th (6:13am) = Hobby airport reports a gust to 156mph before the wind gage fails.
August 9th (6:44am) = IAH reports a gust to 139mph before the wind gage fails.
August 9th (7:08am) = The eye moves over downtown Houston. A few people wander out to see that all trees and signs are downed and every skyscraper is gutted.
August 9th (12pm) = The tropical force winds wind down in Houston and over 100 billion in damages are left in the storms wake. The death toll is estimated to be 3,313 people (as many have evacuated). The nation is in shock. This storm has surpasses anything they have ever seen.
August 9th (1:21pm) = The dying hurricane moves into the Dallas area. Area airports record gusts as high as 83mph. Reports of downed trees and power lines come in from both Dallas and Fort Worth.
August 9th (7pm) = The storm dies to a tropical depression over Nebraska.
In all this storm would have caused over 200 billion in damages, killed over 38,000 people and created a widespread national disaster. Millions of people experience hurricane force winds from the storm, and storm surge and waves have washed away world famous beaches. Let's pray this scenario never plays itself out...it would truly be a catastrophe. [/i]
**These dates are all hypothetical and are there to make this scenario easier to follow. Any real occurrence of the following situation is completely by coincidence.**
August 2nd (7:15am) = A tropical wave is gaining strength just east of the Bahamas. The NHC has just issued a "Tropical Disturbance Statement" to say that this may be upgraded to a tropical depression later in the day.
August 2nd (11:23pm) = A ship reports 45mph sustained winds in the area of the disturbance. The NHC upgrades the system to a tropical storm. The forecast track takes it into the Miami area as a Cat. 2 hurricane in three days.
August 2nd (5pm) = The storm has gone through a burst of development and winds have been raised to 80mph. The system is now a hurricane. The 5pm track is a little further southward and it looks like the keys may be in for a Cat. 3 hurricane in less than 72 hours.
August 3rd (11am) = The storm is now a monster Cat. 3 storm with 130mph winds, and is still intensifying. The forecast is not calling for a Cat. 5 storm to move through the Florida straights in 50 hours. A Hurricane warning is issued for the keys and a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch is issued for southern Florida.
August 3rd (5pm) = At 5pm the storm officially becomes a cat. 5 with 160mph winds. The storm is currently skimming some of the central Bahama islands and wind gusts up to 125mph are being reported a good 80 miles from the eye wall!
August 3rd (11am) = The storm slows considerably just east of the Florida straights. Forecasters are baffled by the situation. In the 11am update the winds are upped to 175mph with a central pressure of 899mb.
August 3rd (11pm) = In the evening advisory winds are still at 175mph and the pressure is down to 897mb. The forecast still takes the storm through the FL straights.
August 4th (12:01am) = While most of southern Florida sleeps, the storm decides to rapidly speed up to nearly 25mph. The storm has also shifted direction and is heading WNW...Miami is now dead in the path of a storm that will make landfall in less than 24 hrs. An evacuation is ordered, but many do not hear of it for another 5-10 hours.
August 4th (11am) = The evacuation is called off as TS force winds cause highways to close. Everyone who did not already leave are trapped. Miami is in panic. Winds are now gusting to 66mph at the airport and thousands of power outages are being reported. The storm still has 175mph winds and hurricane force winds extend out 150 miles.
August 4th (2pm) = Hurricane force winds reach Miami.
August 4th (7pm) = The eye wall reaches Miami. The airport receives a gust to 181mph before the wind gage fails. Downtown skyscrapers sway violently in the high winds and glass windows shatter everywhere. Big chunks of the buildings siding begin to rain to the ground and all outside balconies are stripped off. The entire region of Florida south of West Palm Beach and Naples is without power.
August 5th (11am) = The storm now re-emerges into the Gulf with 115mph winds. The track now takes the system toward the Texas coast. In Miami there is total chaos. All downtown buildings are gutted and some have partially collapsed. Initial death toll estimates top 35,000 people and damage estimates top 100 billion dollars. All popular Miami beaches have been eroded off the earth. Miami is no more.
August 6th (11am) = The storm has regained Cat. 5 status in the Gulf and the track takes the storm toward Houston. Evacuations are ordered for the SE Texas coast and SW Louisiana. The storm is forecast to make landfall on August 9th.
August 7th (5pm) = The storm becomes the strongest in Atlantic basin history. Top winds reach 195mph and pressures fall to 870mb. The national media is in shock with what they are seeing. The track still has the storm moving for the Houston area.
August 8th (11am) = The storm weakens down to 180mph with a pressure of 888mb, but still looks as deadly as ever. Tropical force winds are expected to reach Houston this evening.
August 8th (7pm) = Houston Hobby reports gusts to 47mph and IAH records gusts to 42mph as the first bands move in. Isolated power outages are reported throughout SE Texas.
August 9th (12am) = People in Houston are hunkering down as gusts reach 77mph at Hobby and 69mph at IAH. At Galveston winds have now reached 74mph sustained with gusts to 99mph. 80% of the area is without power.
August 9th (5am) = The eye wall is coming ashore and people watch in shock as new reporters on Galveston island are swept away by surge and wind. The Galveston airport reports a gust to 169mph before the wind gage fails and Hobby is reporting gusts to 144mph. In north Houston, IAH is reporting gusts of 123mph. 100% of the area is without power. All skyscraper windows in Downtown Houston are blown out.
August 9th (6:13am) = Hobby airport reports a gust to 156mph before the wind gage fails.
August 9th (6:44am) = IAH reports a gust to 139mph before the wind gage fails.
August 9th (7:08am) = The eye moves over downtown Houston. A few people wander out to see that all trees and signs are downed and every skyscraper is gutted.
August 9th (12pm) = The tropical force winds wind down in Houston and over 100 billion in damages are left in the storms wake. The death toll is estimated to be 3,313 people (as many have evacuated). The nation is in shock. This storm has surpasses anything they have ever seen.
August 9th (1:21pm) = The dying hurricane moves into the Dallas area. Area airports record gusts as high as 83mph. Reports of downed trees and power lines come in from both Dallas and Fort Worth.
August 9th (7pm) = The storm dies to a tropical depression over Nebraska.
In all this storm would have caused over 200 billion in damages, killed over 38,000 people and created a widespread national disaster. Millions of people experience hurricane force winds from the storm, and storm surge and waves have washed away world famous beaches. Let's pray this scenario never plays itself out...it would truly be a catastrophe. [/i]
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Hybridstorm_November2001
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Jim Cantore
The ultimate storm I could think of is track 1 of my last post heres how I see it
setup
SST'S 7-9 degrees above normal
Bermuda high sitting at Newfoundland
Trough of low pressure in the Ohio valley
Conviently placed Hurricane
Track uncertainty
Forcast off by quite a bit
By the time the threat to NYC becomes imminent its 12 hours before landfall (that uncertain!)
Storm strikes moving NW at 40mph and still accelerating
Storm at least 750 miles in diameter
Double eyewall
Hurricane force winds extend out 200+ miles
TS winds extend out 400+ miles
Eye about 35-45 Miles wide
People in NYC have almost no time to evacuate
Millions still trapped in NYC
SLOSH estimates the storm I created would have a 32 foot surge in Manhattan
FEMA?
NYC impossible to get to
surge undermines foundations causing collapses of large buildings
put it all together and you get the ultimate doomsday hurricane
Storm 2
this setup is not to rare so no need to go over it
Bahamas get leveled
Florida Keys are submerged
Mobile gets drowned
Tornado outbreak after landfall
Storm 3
Storm is funneled by 2 high pressures
Major flooding in the Bahamas
Track Uncertainty
Basicly the same as storm one but less severe
setup
SST'S 7-9 degrees above normal
Bermuda high sitting at Newfoundland
Trough of low pressure in the Ohio valley
Conviently placed Hurricane
Track uncertainty
Forcast off by quite a bit
By the time the threat to NYC becomes imminent its 12 hours before landfall (that uncertain!)
Storm strikes moving NW at 40mph and still accelerating
Storm at least 750 miles in diameter
Double eyewall
Hurricane force winds extend out 200+ miles
TS winds extend out 400+ miles
Eye about 35-45 Miles wide
People in NYC have almost no time to evacuate
Millions still trapped in NYC
SLOSH estimates the storm I created would have a 32 foot surge in Manhattan
FEMA?
NYC impossible to get to
surge undermines foundations causing collapses of large buildings
put it all together and you get the ultimate doomsday hurricane
Storm 2
this setup is not to rare so no need to go over it
Bahamas get leveled
Florida Keys are submerged
Mobile gets drowned
Tornado outbreak after landfall
Storm 3
Storm is funneled by 2 high pressures
Major flooding in the Bahamas
Track Uncertainty
Basicly the same as storm one but less severe
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Jim Cantore
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