Post Your Pre-poll Prediction 2006 Numbers Here

[skysummit]

44 WAVES

23 DEPRESSIONS

19 NAMED STORMS

10 CANES

5 MAJORS

1 SUBTROPICAL

FYI, I kept track of all waves and other non-wave disturbances from the 3rd week of May through December. The total was 64 waves and disturbances. Of those 64, 30 reached at least TD status, a little over 45%. Over 100 waves/disturbances (as it looks like you're saying) would be quite an increase over 2005.

Interesting how many people are predicting numbers in the 20s. It's been estimated that the 2005 season was a 1 in 200 year event. The key for 2006 will be Caribbean Sea pressures and wind shear. Last year, what resembled a monsoonal trof set up in the central to western Caribbean, providing the focus for a great deal of development. It would take something similar to that in 2006 for more than about 15-16 storms to develop. Too early to say for sure, but cooling eastern Pacific temps would favor a stronger Bermuda high and increaed shear across the Caribbean.

No....NOT over 100 waves! Out of 44 waves, I say we'll get 23 depressions, then out of that, 19 will become storms, and so on...

[wxman57]

44 WAVES

23 DEPRESSIONS

19 NAMED STORMS

10 CANES

5 MAJORS

1 SUBTROPICAL

FYI, I kept track of all waves and other non-wave disturbances from the 3rd week of May through December. The total was 64 waves and disturbances. Of those 64, 30 reached at least TD status, a little over 45%. Over 100 waves/disturbances (as it looks like you're saying) would be quite an increase over 2005.

Interesting how many people are predicting numbers in the 20s. It's been estimated that the 2005 season was a 1 in 200 year event. The key for 2006 will be Caribbean Sea pressures and wind shear. Last year, what resembled a monsoonal trof set up in the central to western Caribbean, providing the focus for a great deal of development. It would take something similar to that in 2006 for more than about 15-16 storms to develop. Too early to say for sure, but cooling eastern Pacific temps would favor a stronger Bermuda high and increaed shear across the Caribbean.

No....NOT over 100 waves! Out of 44 waves, I say we'll get 23 depressions, then out of that, 19 will become storms, and so on...

Well, that would be over 50% development ratio. A "normal" season would have about 10-15% of 70-80 tropical waves developing.

[skysummit]

Yup, over a 50% development ratio.

[stormchazer]

17 named storms
10 hurricanes
4 major hurricanes

[Decomdoug]

18 named storms
11 hurricanes
7 major hurricanes

18/11/7