Indian Ocean:Tropical Cyclone Carina

[P.K.]

50kts, but the pressure is down to 980hPa.

BULLETIN DU 25 FEVRIER A 04H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE CARINA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 980 HPA.
POSITION LE 25 FEVRIER A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 12.3 SUD / 80.3 EST
(DOUZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGTS DEGRES TROIS EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2775 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 7 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 13.4S/79.4E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 14.5S/78.2E
CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.6S/77E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE A 10H30

[HURAKAN]

JUST ONE WORD: "IMPRESSIVE"

[P.K.]

I was thinking the same thing looking at the IR image on the MF page.

[MiamiensisWx]

WTXS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 80.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 80.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 12.6S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.2S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 13.6S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 14.5S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 80.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO THE EAST OF
TC 14S WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A 12- TO 24-HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
INTO A REGION OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.//

NNNN

The JTWC is acting faster!

[senorpepr]

///50KT (10-min) = ~57KT (US 1-min)///

WTIO30 FMEE 250015

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/10/20052006
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA)

2.A POSITION 2006/02/25 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 80.3E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 12.9S/79.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 13.4S/79.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 14.0S/78.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 14.5S/78.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 15.0S/77.6E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2006/02/28 00 UTC: 15.6S/77.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5+
CARINA IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS IT UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE
CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WINDS INFLOW, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK
WINDSHEAR).
THE SYSTEM SHOWS AN EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN OVER THE SIX LAST SAT
PICTURES.
POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION REMAINS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTHWESTERLY.=

[HURAKAN]

[MiamiensisWx]

Wow... Carina is looking very good now in that excellent graphic you posted, Sandy! I really think Carina will reach major hurricane (storm) status!

[MiamiensisWx]

Carina is looking better than ever on both images!

[HURAKAN]

CapeVerdeWave, Agree. By the way, how often you change your avatar?!?!?!?!?!!!! Great ones, don't get me wrong!!!

[Derek Ortt]

not sure that the center is in the center of the convective envelope, which is why the sat estimates are lower than one may suggest

[MiamiensisWx]

I change them often, Sandy! Thanks! I agree!

[HURAKAN]

Derek, it could be that the system hasn't intensified because the eye-wall is not fully developed like these images suggest!

[HURAKAN]

CARINA IS REALLY TAKING CARE OF HERSELF!!!

[James]

Some kind of warm spot looks to be developing, could this be the start of an eye formation? [/img]

[P.K.]

55kts

BULLETIN DU 25 FEVRIER A 10H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE CARINA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 976 HPA.
POSITION LE 25 FEVRIER A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 12.2 SUD / 80.5 EST
(DOUZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGTS DEGRES CINQ EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2800 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 3 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 12.9S/79.2E
CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 14.2S/77.7E
CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.8S/75.8E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN A 16H30 LOCALES

[HURAKAN]

14SCARINA.75kts-967mb-130S-799E

[senorpepr]

///Official advisory: 976mb -- 55kt (10-min) or ~63kt (US 1-min)///

BULLETIN DU 25 FEVRIER A 16H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE CARINA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 976 HPA.
POSITION LE 25 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 12.8 SUD / 80.0 EST
(DOUZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGTS DEGRES ZERO EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2725 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 7 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 13.7S/78.8E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 14.9S/77.6E
CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 16.6S/76.2E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE A 22H30 LOCALES

WTIO30 FMEE 251213

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/10/20052006
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA)

2.A POSITION 2006/02/25 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8S / 80.0E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 13.1S/79.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 13.7S/78.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 14.3S/78.2E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 14.9S/77.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2006/02/28 00 UTC: 15.7S/76.9E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 16.6S/76.2E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CARINA IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS IT UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE
CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WINDS INFLOW, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK TO
MODERATE WINDSHEAR).
BUT CONVECTION HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZED, THE SYSTEM HAS
SHOWED TEMPORALY A BANDING EYE.
POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A BUILDING UPPER POLARDWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AT MIDDLE
RANGE.

[HURAKAN]

Nice eye developing!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

It's about time!

[JamesFromMaine2]

75kts and 967mb now!