Washington DC Snow 3/12-16th...east coast?

[Jim Hughes]

I am going to check over some more things and update this forecast over the weekend but I wanted to talk about this potential storm as soon as possible.

Many people have probably heard in some other weather forums about a potential snowstorm on the horizon. Most people, or the experts, seem to think that this will occur sometime in early March. I have heard and seen references about the 5th or 7th. (1st-8th)

I believe the time frame for the event is considerably later. I think the best time frame is centered around the 15th but I am very worried about the "Weekend Rule" since this storm has a very good chance of being a significant event. So I am going to use a five day forecast period instead of my usual 3 day outlook. (So I am Including Sunday on the front end)

I got burned by the weekend rule last month and this kept me from getting a bullseye for for my 2/14-16th snowstorm forecast.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=80771


BTW ...The whole northeast-midatlantic usually gets effected by these storms. I always just say DC snow.


EDIT : I have just edited the title of this thread. It is no longer a preliminary forecast.


Jim

[terstorm1012]

you thinking superstorm?

[Jim Hughes]

you thinking superstorm?

Not sure...I think it could be as big as the last one...If it happens on the front end it seems more logical to be at least a "3" again maybe higher.

Could it be big in midweek? That's tough... Recent history says no to a biggie....This Weekend Rule" has been occurring for quite some time now.
Still maybe a 4-8....Need to see what the largest mid week storm has been the past few decades.


Jim

[terstorm1012]

Hmmm..2002 winter there were a couple storms that were particularly nasty because they popped up and dumped their worse at rush hour...in the Philadelphia area that is.

[WindRunner]

Oooh, hope you're right Jim. I'd like one more dose of winter before spring starts, as we haven't had much at all this season.

[Jim Hughes]

Oooh, hope you're right Jim. I'd like one more dose of winter before spring starts, as we haven't had much at all this season.

It had been a dud up until the past 2-3 weeks. December was okay but the balmy January pretty much put that out of everybody's mind. I realize that I am standing alone with this later outllook. Most people see something happening during the first week of March. Maybe both will occur. Double dose...


Jim

[terstorm1012]

A double dose would be cool . . . though at this time I'm ready for Spring, thunderstorms, and hurricanes

[sphinx]

I'm sorry but I can't take a post seriously that talks about a weekend rule without a hypothesis.

What is your hypothesis:

Weekday/weekend differences in particulate matter emissions affect nucleation (some kind of indirect effect)... --> big weekend storms?

[Jim Hughes]

I'm sorry but I can't take a post seriously that talks about a weekend rule without a hypothesis.

What is your hypothesis:

Weekday/weekend differences in particulate matter emissions affect nucleation (some kind of indirect effect)... --> big weekend storms?

Sorry sphinx but your analysis is wrong here. Yes I did mention about the weekend rule correlation with significant events but I never have said that this will definitely be one. Maybe I also need to consider how I say things next time also.

Now I was talking somewhat in general about the weekend rule since I was now adding two days to my usual three day outlook. I mentioned getting burned two weeks back by not adding two more days.

Nobody that I know of ever forecasts a 72 hour time frame for an event to occur some 2-3 weeks out. Most people talk about a considerably longer time period when forecasting weather/climate events/trends. I have never done this. (Look at all of the older forecasts on this board or in any other forum....Talkin Tropics...Global.. )

I have only given out three day time frames for snowstorms, precipitation & temperature anomalies, Tropical development etc.. since I started doing long term forecasting back in 1994. Now I have given out annual or monthly trends many times before but that methodology is somewhat different. So the forecasts are as different as apples and oranges.

But back to my forecast time frame. I was on the fence between the 14th or 15th as the center date for a five day outlook.

So instead of saying 13th-17th (Monday -Friday) I said 12th-16th (Sunday -Thursday ). So yes one could possibly say that I moved it one day off center, if I had decided to center it around the 15th, but there were other reasons for including the 12th also. Plus like I mentioned I was on the fence.

Now if I seriously considered the weekend rule as a legitimate long range forecasting tool I would have centered a five day period around a weekend and added only one other day. (Friday - Monday+ 1). I did not do this and it would be a joke, or even insulting, to think that I would seriously do this.

As far as hypothesis etc...You should talk to the atmospheric experts within the field. You touch base on part of the research done a while back about what kind of possible effect the weekday traffic is having upon east coast weather patterns.


Jim

[sphinx]

Let's back up:

What is the "Weekend Rule?"

[Jim Hughes]

Let's back up:

What is the "Weekend Rule?"

Sorry sphinx. My time is limited and this exchange is going down the same road again. Not to sure why your still stuck on the Weekend Rule.



Jim

[sphinx]

Perhaps because you mentioned it multiple times in your first post.

[Jim Hughes]

Perhaps because you mentioned it multiple times in your first post.

I would not call two times, multiple times. But I guess the post was short. Here you go. Your persistence has paid off.


http://www.wxrisk.com/Weekendrule.htm


Jim

[Stephanie]

I've heard of the weekend rule and pretty much the East coast usually does get there "big storms" on the weekend. It's not a guarantee though.

I hope that Jim's link answers your question once and for all sphinx.

[sphinx]

Thanks.

--> Statistically, approximately 2/3 of major east-coast winter storms should satisfy the "weekend rule". (4/7 of 2-day storms and 5/7 of 3-day storms: Assume 2 1/2 days is typical). However, it appears that 90% or so actually do (at least after fine tuning the definition of a major east coast storm). Interesting.

The GFS shows a fantasy east-coast storm in the March 12-16th time frame. However, assuming it occurs! it will not add another point to the study unless its track changes, as alas, it is currently an interior storm.

[terstorm1012]

Interesting about the weekend rule...I have a parody book from the early 90s titled "The Way Things Really Work" that references this very rule... (sorry to dwell on it, just reading the posts reminded me.)

[WindRunner]

The GFS shows a fantasy east-coast storm in the March 12-16th time frame. However, assuming it occurs! it will not add another point to the study unless its track changes, as alas, it is currently an interior storm.

Well, when was the last time you saw the GFS nail a forecast made in the 192hr+ time range? Of course the track is going to change, and anything could happen to that storm over the next 2 weeks. It could disappear, move out to sea, move inland, appear weaker or appear stronger. I'm actually thinking that the fact that the GFS shows the storm now is a bad sign for Jim's forecast, seeing as these storms usually disappear by the time they get down around the 10 day time frame. But I'll guess we have to wait and see . . .

[Stephanie]

The GFS shows a fantasy east-coast storm in the March 12-16th time frame. However, assuming it occurs! it will not add another point to the study unless its track changes, as alas, it is currently an interior storm.

Well, when was the last time you saw the GFS nail a forecast made in the 192hr+ time range? Of course the track is going to change, and anything could happen to that storm over the next 2 weeks. It could disappear, move out to sea, move inland, appear weaker or appear stronger. I'm actually thinking that the fact that the GFS shows the storm now is a bad sign for Jim's forecast, seeing as these storms usually disappear by the time they get down around the 10 day time frame. But I'll guess we have to wait and see . . .

Actually, I look at the GFS showing this storm as being good news. HOWEVER, the GFS goes hog-wild this far out, but it usually seems to pick up a storm that generally does materialize in one fashion or another. It's problem seems to me lies in the medium range forecasts.

[Jim Cantore]

Oooh, hope you're right Jim. I'd like one more dose of winter before spring starts, as we haven't had much at all this season.

come on 5 feet

[Jim Hughes]

The GFS shows a fantasy east-coast storm in the March 12-16th time frame. However, assuming it occurs! it will not add another point to the study unless its track changes, as alas, it is currently an interior storm.

Well, when was the last time you saw the GFS nail a forecast made in the 192hr+ time range? Of course the track is going to change, and anything could happen to that storm over the next 2 weeks. It could disappear, move out to sea, move inland, appear weaker or appear stronger. I'm actually thinking that the fact that the GFS shows the storm now is a bad sign for Jim's forecast, seeing as these storms usually disappear by the time they get down around the 10 day time frame. But I'll guess we have to wait and see . . .

It does not surprise me if the models are forecasting something this far out. I usually tell people that this is why I make these long range forecasts so far out in advance. So that you pay heed to what the models are saying if they are calling for a similar event.

This event is not written in stone by any means but I would strongly suggest that we give their extended outlooks a little bit more weight this time. Even this far out.


Jim