Worst-case (Yet Frighteningly Realistic) SE Fla. Storm

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MiamiensisWx

Worst-case (Yet Frighteningly Realistic) SE Fla. Storm

#1 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Feb 22, 2006 1:06 pm

A tropical wave exits the African coastline. It is August... the ripe time for the Cape Verde storms to blossom. Convection in the wave starts to fire and deepen once it gets established in the warm, salty waters off the African coastline that stretch all the way to the Bahamas and Gulf of Mexico, increasing along the wave's path further to the west. The blossoming system is upgraded to a tropical depression. The circulation and outflow is becoming better organized in an extremely favorable environment as the depression passes south of the Cape Verde Islands. The tradewinds are gently nudging the wave along, with only some slight shear over the depression's northern semicircle. Deep convection fires right in near the center; the depression is now a tropical storm just to the west-southwest to southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is christened Florence.

Florence moves to the west-northwest to northwest, quickly strengthening into an 85MPH Category One hurricane. Due west of the Cape Verde Islands and near 35W, Florence turns more to the west, strengthening into a 95MPH Category Two hurricane. Florence continues to move nearly due west now, continuing to strengthen. Near 45W, Florence becomes a Category Three (major) hurricane, starting to take aim at the Leeward Islands. Florence continues to become better organized, rapidly strengthening into a 145MPH Category Four hurricane to the east of the Leeward Islands. With favorable conditions throughout it's life, Florence has fluctuations mainly due to ERCs. Florence continues westward, ploughing into the Leeward Islands as a high-end Category Four hurricane with sustained winds of 145MPH to 150MPH. Many of the islands are severely devastated, receiving very severe destruction. Florence continues westward to west-northwestward, charging into Puerto Rico with winds of at least 145MPH. The eye passes near or over San Juan (I hope you don't feel bad, cycloneye). The island suffers damage just as severe to catastrophic as the Leeward Islands, receiving the worst storm since 1928. Several deaths are reported in the Leewards and Puerto Rico.

Florence passes over Puerto Rico, turning more to the northwest and bypassing Hispaniola. However, the outer bands cause severe flooding, and over 1,000 deaths occur in Haiti and - primarily - the Dominican Republic. Florence maintains it strength, with winds of at least 145MPH, and turns slightly more to the west, ploughing through and severely devastating the Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category Four hurricane and 145MPH winds. It is now passing over extremely warm waters and making a beeline for southeast Florida. It is clear - the southeast U.S. coast needs to WATCH OUT.

Florence continues it's march through the Bahamas, heading west-northwest at 12MPH to 14MPH, maintaining it's strength outstandingly well. Hurricane warnings are placed for the northwest and central Bahamas and southeast Florida. Florence passes near Nassau, causing heavy to very severe destruction on New Providence Island. Florence then roars across Andros Island, pounding the island. After blasting the Bimini Islands, Florence aims all it's strength at the southeast Florida coast. After over 40 years, Palm Beach and Broward counties are staring down the barrel of a major hurricane from the east. The time was here. A storm, already devastating in the Caribbean and Bahamas, was about to arrive wuth fury.

Larger and slightly slower - and with a larger eye - than Andrew, Florence struck Fort Lauderdale as a Category Four with sustained winds of at least 145MPH. Severe to catastrophic destruction is caused to buildings. Damages reach well over $50 billion, and around 40 people are killed in Florida. Florence curves up along the west coast of Florida, and moves with ebbing strength through the eastern U.S.

Nobody will forget Florence!

Sorry if this post upsets many... I just think something like this is very possible and may happen very, very soon... any thoughts?

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#2 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 1:30 pm

Man you have too much time on your hands...LOL Although this looks very possible but the TS in the middle of the country as a TS ?
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#3 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Feb 22, 2006 1:37 pm

Huh? What do you mean by that? It just weakens to a tropical storm after moving over land as it is moving up through the eastern U.S.

I'm sorry for making this...

:cry: :cry: :cry:
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 22, 2006 1:41 pm

CapeVerdeWave some may see what you have done here as -removed- a hurricane for your area although personaly I dont think that you meant to do that.But this post may cause sentiments that may not be good.
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#5 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Feb 22, 2006 1:43 pm

I'm not -removed-... I'm being honest! I'm sorry that I posted this if it may mess things up... feel free to lock if you want to, Luis...

:cry: :cry: :cry:
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#6 Postby T'Bonz » Wed Feb 22, 2006 1:46 pm

Heh. d00d, that eye is right over my house. Please move the damned thing elsewhere. Like Abu Dhabi, perhaps.
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#7 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Feb 22, 2006 1:54 pm

Is this better, T'Bonz?

By the way, I'm using the markup maps now, vbhoutex! Is this better?

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#8 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 1:56 pm

Well, the true worst case would be an eye over Miami, not just to the south, and then following to hit New Orleans dead-on. Another worst case would be a Keys hit. Example would be the 1947 cane just to the south (and the 1947 cane was a huge, monstrous thing, Katrina-sized). That would bring complete devastation to downtown Miami and significant wind and wave damage to areas farther north. This is not a true worst case, although I'd count is as one of the worst cases, since this type of a track has happened before in 1945 and 1949.
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 22, 2006 1:57 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Is this better, T'Bonz?

By the way, I'm using the markup maps now, vbhoutex! Is this better?

Image


That is excellent CapeVerdeWave. :) Keep using the storm2k maps.
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#10 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Feb 22, 2006 1:59 pm

CVW, there is no reason to lock this thread. Luis is just pointing out what some others may feel. There is nothing wrong with posting a scenario such as this. It is a possibility. We are all welcome to our feelings and opinions about these scenarios. Everyone just needs to remember to keep their comments respectful and if you are making a joke about something with the scenario that could be misconstrued as disrespectful, just be sure that you are making it obvious that you are joking.

You don't need to apologize for making the thread either. And yes you are using the correct maps now. Make them as fancy as you want.
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#11 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Feb 22, 2006 2:01 pm

OK... thanks, vbhoutex and cycloneye!
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#12 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 2:03 pm

So let me get this straight posting what you think is the worst case for giving state is -removed-? Didn't Mike and a few others last summer post what they thought were the worst case for New Orleans just like this and no one seemed to have a problem saying that he was -removed- so I don't really see why any one would or should think that this post is a wish cast! Just worrys me when some one posts what they think the worst case is b/c last year it really happend! lol
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#13 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 2:46 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Huh? What do you mean by that? It just weakens to a tropical storm after moving over land as it is moving up through the eastern U.S.

I'm sorry for making this...

:cry: :cry: :cry:


All Im saying is I doubt it would still be a TS while traveling thru the Smokies...Just helping :)
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#14 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Feb 22, 2006 2:52 pm

Oh... that's what you meant!
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#15 Postby Ixolib » Wed Feb 22, 2006 3:00 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
CapeVerdeWave wrote:Huh? What do you mean by that? It just weakens to a tropical storm after moving over land as it is moving up through the eastern U.S.

I'm sorry for making this...

:cry: :cry: :cry:


All Im saying is I doubt it would still be a TS while traveling thru the Smokies...Just helping :)


Dollywood better watch out - perhaps a bear watch there??? Another great portrayal of a possible scenario CVW - still waiting on that book/novel... :D
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#16 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Feb 22, 2006 3:02 pm

Thanks, Ixolib! Any other thoughts?
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#17 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 4:10 pm

ugh.....this again.....



As I have said before, many many many times. Florida is like.....an impossible target to miss. Show me two consecutive years where the Florida Peninsula didn't take a hit from a TC and i'll show you one confused human soul.


You've posted your Florence track here, in the doomsday topic and in your allready made prediction topic. I think I speak for more then myself when I say the point has been made my friend. There is no need to overdo it.


But hey man, for your sake I sure hope Florence is a monster FLA storm. Cause you've got alot of jokes coming your way if it isn't lol.
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#18 Postby ericinmia » Wed Feb 22, 2006 4:34 pm

I think it would be worse a little south of where you put it, and then like andrew drive it into the orleans area.

This would cause more damage than katrina in total. The damage to the skyscrapers and business through miami would easily add up to more expense than a broward/palm beach hit. And the Re-destruction of a ill prepared MS and LA. That i see as being the worst.

A very scary more unlikely second would be a cat 2-3 hit on the northeast.
-Eric
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#19 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 5:07 pm

1977 and 1978 NO TC's hit Florida!!! did it...none even crossed the state
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#20 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Feb 22, 2006 5:12 pm

i searched for about 5 minutes...
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