CORAL SEA: Ex. Tropical Cyclone Kate (13P)

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Sunday 19 February 2006

A TROPICAL LOW 1005 hPa is situated near NHULUNBUY. The LOW is expected to
remain slow moving, and may move into the Gulf of Carpentaria early in the week.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next few days is
estimated to be:
Monday: low,
Tuesday: low,
Wednesday: moderate, if the LOW moves into the Gulf of Carpentaria.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[P.K.]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Monday 20 February 2006

A tropical low, 1006 hPa, is situated in the Arafura Sea north of Nhulunbuy. The
low is weak and slow moving, but may drift into the Gulf of Carpentaria and
intensify during the next few days.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next few days is
estimated to be:
Tuesday: low,
Wednesday: low,
Thursday: moderate.



NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[P.K.]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Tuesday 21 February 2006

A tropical low, 1005 hPa, is situated in the Arafura Sea north of Nhulunbuy. The
low remains weak and slow moving, but may drift into the Gulf of Carpentaria and
intensify during the next few days.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next few days is
estimated to be:
Wednesday: low,
Thursday: low,
Friday: moderate.



NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[P.K.]

Pressure down 3hPa, development expected within 24 hours.

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0033 UTC 22 February 2006

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Developing tropical low with a central pressure of 1002 hectopascals located at
220000 UTC near 10.7 south 143.5 east, and moving east at 5 knots. Position
poor.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 30 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 20/30 knots, increasing to 35/40 knots in 18 to 24 hours time.

Seas rising very rough.

Forecast position at 221200 UTC 11.0 south and 144.9 east with central pressure
1000 hPa and maximum winds to 30 knots.

Forecast position at 230000UTC 11.0 south and 145.5 east with central pressure
998 hPa and maximum winds to 40 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING BETTER!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

wahooo!!! that is looking very good.

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0623 UTC 22 February 2006

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Developing tropical low with a central pressure of 1000 hectopascals located at
220600 UTC near 11.2 south 144.2 east, and moving east at 5 knots. Position
fair. Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 18 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 20/30 knots, increasing to 35/45 knots in 12 to 18 hours time.

Seas rising very rough.

Forecast position at 221800 UTC 11.4 south and 145.1 east with central pressure
995 hPa and maximum winds to 35 knots.

Forecast position at 230600UTC 11.4 south and 145.8 east with central pressure
987 hPa and maximum winds to 45 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1240 UTC 22 February 2006

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Developing tropical low with a central pressure of 1000 hectopascals located at
221200 UTC near 10.8 south 144.5 east and near stationary. Position fair. Low
may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 20/30 knots increasing to 35/45 knots in 12 to 24 hours time.

Seas rising very rough.

Forecast position at 230000 UTC 11.0 south and 145.0 east with central pressure
995 hPa and maximum winds to 35 knots.

Forecast position at 231200 UTC 11.2 south and 145.5 east with central pressure
987 hPa and maximum winds to 45 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING MUCH, MUCH BETTER NOW! THE LLC IS GETTING STRONGER!

[Yarrah]

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 0500 EST on Thursday the 23rd of February 2006

At 4am EST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category 1 with central pressure 995
hPa, was located near 10.8S 144.5E, in the northern Coral Sea about 240 km east
of Thursday Island. Kate is near stationary and is not expected to move
appreciably over the next 48 hours.

The next bulletins will be issued from the Queensland Region Warning Centre at
11am this morning.



Say hello to Kate

[James]

Could be a minimal cyclone by the time it reaches land.

[MiamiensisWx]

WTPS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KATE) WARNING NR 001

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

---

WARNING POSITION:

221800Z --- NEAR 10.8S 144.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 144.9E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

230600Z --- 11.1S 145.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

231800Z --- 11.9S 145.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

240600Z --- 12.7S 145.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

241800Z --- 13.4S 145.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

OVER WATER

085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

---

REMARKS:

222100Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 145.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED EAST
NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WHICH
HAD BEEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE LOCATED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CORAL SEA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST UNTIL A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
CORAL SEA AND CAUSES THE SYSTEM TO SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS
AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.
//



NNNN

First JTWC advisory issued!

[WindRunner]

Interesting difference in the forecasts - BOM has a slow drift NW, where the JTWC has a moderate-speed SE turning SW motion. Complete opposites of each other, and I've seen the track verify for both the JTWC and BOM in these differing situations, so I don't know which to really believe here.

[P.K.]

12pm GFS follows the BoM solution, 12am and 12pm Met Office model runs also agree. Within this time frame the ECMWF also agrees with the BoM soltuion.The 12pm GMT CMC and NOGAPS follow the JTWC guidance.

I'd therefore go with the BoM solution as I trust the ECMWF and Met Office models more than the CMC and NOGAPS.

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0017 UTC 23 February 2006

STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Kate with a central pressure of 992 hectopascals located at
230000 UTC near 11.0 south 145.0 east and moving east-southeast at 4 knots.
Position fair.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 35/40 knots initially within 60 nautical miles of the centre,
expanding to 80 nautical miles over the next 24 hours. Maximum winds increasing
to 55 knots near the centre over the next 24 hours.

Seas rising very rough to high.

Forecast position at 231200 UTC 11.3 south and 146.4 east with central pressure
987 hPa and maximum winds to 50 knots.

Forecast position at 240000 UTC 11.7 south and 146.7 east with central pressure
980 hPa and maximum winds to 55 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[HURAKAN]

NRL - 55 KNOTS. KATE IS GETTING STRONGER BY THE MINUTE!!!

[cheezyWXguy]

thats funny...I just checked wunderground and they say its only 50 mph

[HURAKAN]

thats funny...I just checked wunderground and they say its only 50 mph

Yes, remember that JTWC advisories only come once every 12 hours, but every 6 hours NRL updates the wind speeds.

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0623 UTC 23 February 2006

STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Kate with a central pressure of 985 hectopascals located at
230600 UTC near 11.3 south 146.4 east and moving east-southeast at 9 knots.
Position fair.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 40/45 knots within 80 nautical miles of the centre and
increasing to 50 knots with 20nm of centre. Maximum winds increasing to 55 to 60
knots near the centre over the next 24 hours.

Seas rising very rough to high.

Forecast position at 231800 UTC 11.9 south and 147.8 east with central pressure
980 hPa and maximum winds to 55 knots.

Forecast position at 240600 UTC 12.5 south and 148.8 east with central pressure
975 hPa and maximum winds to 60 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KATE) WARNING NR 002

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

---

WARNING POSITION:

230600Z --- NEAR 11.4S 146.5E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 146.5E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

231800Z --- 11.8S 147.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

240600Z --- 12.2S 148.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

241800Z --- 12.8S 149.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

250600Z --- 13.6S 149.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

---

REMARKS:

230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 146.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 13P IS
BEING STEERED BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. AFTER
THE DEPARTURE OF A MERIDIONAL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM,
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CORAL SEA AND BEGIN TO STEER THE
STORM ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WILL KEEP TC 13P AS A MODERATE STRENGTH STORM OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 15 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES