This is amazing a tropical storm appears to have formed in

[Mezocyclone]

This a rather unusual situation with consideration to where this appears to be developing.. The Eastern side of the Atlantic is not generally conducive to Tropical Storms, either North or South of the equator and certainly not something that we might experience this far South.. But,, changes are taking place all across the Planet as far as our weather is being represented. in our interpretations,,.

Take a Look at where Hurricane Vince Started last year and how quickly the NHC/TPC jumped on that one...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/gr ... L2305W.GIF

Click on the Link in the previous post...

It sure looks like a Tropical Cyclone to this observer...

I am taking into consideration that 2 Southern Seasons ago there was a significant Hurricane that formed and came onshore in South America and was poo pooed off by many that thought the development was not possible, until the NHC brought Goes Floater over the system and it sure was a cat#3 at its peak... JMHO,,, most say it was a weak cat#1 but scats and shipping reports say different, just the Sat View tells a great visual story.. Funny in a morbid sence, that the damage reports were played down and almost nonexistant in the aftermath after landfall...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/brazi ... 228ls1.gif

You and all who view this thought can write off a Southern Atlantic Season as it developes in the years to come, but the reality is quite apparent in the statistics.. We are seeing systems that in other parts of the world would be Named and Identified as Tropical Cyclones..

The System of identification needs to be standardized across the Planet,, to include the South Atlantic Ocean.....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree mesocyclone...It is looking very good this morning this reminds me of the satellite pics of the April 1991 storm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

not looking so good now...All the convection is being formed in a northern band. Hopefully this is a weak system thing.

[P.K.]

FQNT50 LFPW 210931

A
SECURITE
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
TOULOUSE, TUESDAY 21 FEBRUARY 2006 AT 09 UTC.

- WIND SPEED IN BEAUFORT SCALE - SEA : TOTAL SIGNIFICANT -
- PLEASE BE AWARE, WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER
THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE
THE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT.


PART 2 : GENERAL SYNOPSIS, TUESDAY 21 AT 00 UTC


ITCZ ALONG 6N9W 2N21W 1N26W 1N50W.

PART 3 : AREA FORECASTS TO WEDNESDAY 22 AT 12 UTC

POINTE NOIRE :
MAINLY SOUTHEAST 2 TO 4, LOCALLY EASTERLY IN FAR WEST. SLIGHT,
LOCALLY MODERATE IN WEST. THUNDERSQUALLS WITH SEVERE GUSTS.

This is the best I can do for a visible image in that area, Meteosat-8 is having problems at the moment.

[Coredesat]

I found this, but it only shows the northern part of this system:

[SouthFloridawx]

it looks to be sheared....

but, on the other hand that low pressure system over southern africa looks pretty impressive...
Bet they are getting some pretty nasty weather there now.

https://afweather.afwa.af.mil/images/sa ... 19IR_L.GIF

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[JonathanBelles]

2 QUESTIONS: what is the shaer in the area of this storm?

what is the earliest a TS has formed in the south atlantic?

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS @ 00 hour
gfs 2006022112 Forecast 850200shear

[JonathanBelles]

ok but the area is just off the bottom right corner of the picture

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks what the sinking air of the central south Atlantic can do.

[senorpepr]

what is the earliest a TS has formed in the south atlantic?

Keep in mind that this is the Southern Hemisphere. This isn't "early". A tropical cyclone developing in the Southern Hemisphere in late February is like a tropical cyclone developing in the Northern Hemisphere in late August.

[Derek Ortt]

well... we know of a whole 3 tropical storms or hurricanes to form in the SH, and the earliest was in january of 2004

[brunota2003]

ok...where is this so called system on the quickscat pics posted here??? I see a lot of rain contaminated winds...but no closed circulation...it does look like some heavy convection, but you see that in alot of waves...I'm not raising my "OMG We Are All Going To Die" banners until either I see something noteworthy or the NHC says something about the "system" just my $0.02

[senorpepr]

ok...where is this so called system on the quickscat pics posted here??? I see a lot of rain contaminated winds...but no closed circulation...it does look like some heavy convection, but you see that in alot of waves...I'm not raising my "OMG We Are All Going To Die" banners until either I see something noteworthy or the NHC says something about the "system" just my $0.02

That post just earned you one gold star.

[SouthFloridawx]

nothing to note here

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok its gone now...I been fellowing that system over Africa at around 20 south...It is moving west-northwestward it appears. Lets see if it can pull a Aussia like clare system. The waters are warm next to the coast of africa.

[wxmann_91]

ok...where is this so called system on the quickscat pics posted here??? I see a lot of rain contaminated winds...but no closed circulation...it does look like some heavy convection, but you see that in alot of waves...I'm not raising my "OMG We Are All Going To Die" banners until either I see something noteworthy or the NHC says something about the "system" just my $0.02

That post just earned you one gold star.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is a reason why no systems form normally down there. In that is reason is there is a super central south Atlantic high that has one heck of alot of sinking air. In which this run into it. I still believe it had a some what closed LLC with 35 knot winds based on the quickscat. Irene,charley,emily all had there times when the quickscats did not pick up the LLC in both charley,emily where hurricanes.

I would watch with interest the system about ready to come off at 20 south...At least this is something to do. I enjoy watching these kind of systems.


I will believe as I will why because I enjoy tropical weather...In thats half the fun.