This is amazing a tropical storm appears to have formed in

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #1 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:22 am

south Atlantic at 4 south/20 west. At first on this loop it shows a spining system with outflow from the wave that crossed the equater. It is moving westward at this hour. In there doe's appear that the system is becoming exposed. The quickscat shown a closed LLC with a area of 35 knot winds. This is amazing holy mother of god wow wow wow!!!

Loop of the cyclone...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... LATEST.jpg

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds39.png

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #2 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:27 am

Hmmm... the quikscat you posted doesn't cover 4S/20W. Actually... it's mostly over Africa. Also, the satellite link you posted doesn't work.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #3 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:29 am

The satellite is fixed...The quickscat shows the winds fellowing around a low pressure area. In the wind go's into the center.

Website · #4 Postby **Brent** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:29 am

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:eek:

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #5 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:30 am

Okay... looking at satellite... nothing but cirrus at 4S/20W. This pepper is still without a clue.

However... if you are talking about the waves along the equator... they are not tropical cyclones whatsoever.

Breathe. Repeat.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #6 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:30 am

Ok thats around 0 west.. :eek:

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #7 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:31 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The satellite is fixed...The quickscat shows the winds fellowing around a low pressure area. In the wind go's into the center.

The quikscat image is in the eastern hemisphere. It doesn't show anything west of the Prime Meridian.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #8 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:33 am

Yeah... even looking at quikscat... I don't see anything to hoist my freak flag about. No real sizable winds... not a real defined circulation. I suggest a cold shower. Nothing to see here... move along. :wink:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #9 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:35 am

Ok around 4 south/0 west in there appears to be a cirualation on quickscats with the winds blowing out of east to west on the buttom with a hook into the center. 35 knots is shown near the center. The satellite appears to show a spin...But with the eastly shear exposing the system.

I see what I see...Not sure how long its going to last.

Website · #10 Postby **Brent** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:35 am

senorpepr wrote:Yeah... even looking at quikscat... I don't see anything to hoist my freak flag about. No real sizable winds... not a real defined circulation. I suggest a cold shower. Nothing to see here... move along.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #11 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:35 am

It is big if it has a cirulaiton at all here. :eek:

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #12 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:37 am

Looks like a classic trough or wave. That is supported by satellite and quikscat.

Website · #13 Postby **Brent** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:38 am

I don't see what's so shocking and unbelievable about a simple wave.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #14 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:38 am

Still wow if there is a wave down there. Thought there was not suppose to be any down there.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #15 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:39 am

Brent wrote:I don't see what's so shocking and unbelievable about a simple wave.

The quicksat hooks the winds into the center. Might not be a cyclone in most likely won't be because of the shear+cold water its about to move into but interesting.

Website · #16 Postby **Brent** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:40 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Still wow if there is a wave down there. Thought there was not suppose to be any down there.

Isn't it Summer down there???

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #17 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:41 am

Brent wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Still wow if there is a wave down there. Thought there was not suppose to be any down there.

Isn't it Summer down there???

The south Atlantic not supposed to have a Itcz at all. :eek:

That means its possible to form a cyclone there.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #18 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:43 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The south Atlantic not supposed to have a Itcz at all.

Actually, in my several years of operationally forecasting for that part of the world, I can tell you that the ITCZ does go to the South Atlantic during the Southern Hemispheric "summer" or December through March. This is nothing unusual.

By spring, the ITCZ will transition back north into other hemisphere and hundreds of people will post blob watches.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #19 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 2:55 am

senorpepr wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The south Atlantic not supposed to have a Itcz at all.

Actually, in my several years of operationally forecasting for that part of the world, I can tell you that the ITCZ does go to the South Atlantic during the Southern Hemispheric "summer" or December through March. This is nothing unusual.

By spring, the ITCZ will transition back north into other hemisphere and hundreds of people will post blob watches.

another quastion...The quickscat missed the LLC on storms like Irene,Charley, in under doe's it some times. With the winds appearly blowing into the center. Even so under 5 knots on the south side would that not mean we got something interesting to watch? Its hard not to jump the gun on these kind of systems.

I will slow down it most likely is nothing.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #20 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 4:53 am

Looking at the latest satelllite shows it developing convection over The "LLC". At the rate of the formation we could very well see a tropical cyclone out of this. Can't rule it out.

https://afweather.afwa.af.mil/images/sa ... 19IR_L.GIF

This is amazing a tropical storm appears to have formed in

This is amazing a tropical storm appears to have formed in

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