Doomsday storms

[Jim Cantore]

[JonathanBelles]

theres got to be an easy way to make those other than paint

[MiamiensisWx]

Here's another one that is very, very possible. It forms in the eastern Atlantic as a Cape Verde-type storm, strengthening gradually but steadily into a tropical storm and, eventually, a Category Two hurricane as it's northwest movement turns more to the west. The storm continues to steadily approach the Leeward Islands, strengthening into a Category Four hurricane with 145MPH winds. The storm blasts through the Leeward Islands with winds still at least 145MPH. The storm then scrapes Puerto Rico at the same intensity, rips through the Turks and Caicos Islands while still at least 145MPH, and roars ashore near Fort Lauderdale as a 145MPH Category Four storm that is slower-moving - around 12MPH to 14MPH - and larger than Andrew. The storm curves up near the western Florida coast and gradually weakens up through the eastern U.S. A highly destructive storm in Florida, the Caribbean, and Bahamas.

[MGC]

Lucky for the NYC area is that a hurricane would have to traverse a good bit of cold water once it crosses the Gulf Stream. Can't see anything much stronger than a Cat-2 for NYC. Still, if the hurricane had a large circulation it could produce a considerable surge, and as we all know it is the water not the wind that kills. Evacuation of low lying area around NYC would be a nightmare...MGC

[SouthFloridawx]

If anyone has a copy of the blank mark up maps can you please send them to me at NFairman@adelphia.net

[Derek Ortt]

yeah, cat 2 or a marginal 3 would be the maximum possibe intensity for a cane in NYC (and a cat 3 would need to be moving faster than 50KT)

That said, at those latitudes, canes are typically much larger than Katrina as they start to interact with baroclinic features. This, along with the fact that NYC is the most surge prone part of the USA, means that a 105KT hurricane will cause a higher surge than Katrina caused in Mississippi.

Also, evacuations are not a nightmare, they are impossible. Its about the same as trying to evacuate Bengledesh. Too many people in too small an area, with no way across the bridges

[Jim Cantore]

I made more, with more realistic intensitys and some intresting paths

[Jim Cantore]

[Opal storm]

A strong Cape Verde storm intensifies to a strong cat 4 in the Caribbean and makes a direct hit on Jamaica as a 150mph cat 4 devastating the entire island.It weakens briefly to a 3 after passing over Jamaica but regains strength rapidly and makes a second landfall on the Yucatan as a 160mph cat 5.It then enters the Gulf and slowly creeps its way north while slowly weakening.It makes a final landfall in SE LA as a 110mph cat 2 and stalls over the area for days due to weak steering currents.The heavy rain and storm surge combined floods the city of New Orleans worse than Katrina did.Major flooding also occurs in MS,AL and FL panhandle.

[Jim Cantore]

ouch

[MiamiensisWx]

Here's another one!

This storm is a Cape Verde-type storm that slowly strengthens into a tropical storm just east of 40W. The storm then starts to strengthen rapidly; by the time it passes through the Lesser Antilles, it has strengthened into a 175MPH Category Five hurricane. It causes severe to very severe destruction. The storm then curves more to the west-northwest, weakening to a 150MPH Category Four hurricane; however, just as it turns to the northwest before reaching the southeastern Dominican Republic, it restrengthens to 165MPH before landfall. It weakens to a Category Two after crossing the Dominican Republic; however, it turns to the west-northwest and restrengthens to a 145MPH Category Four in the central Bahamas as it starts to approach the Florida coast gradually. The storm parallels the east-central Florida coast as a Category Three, with the eye scraping the coastline. The storm makes landfall near Cape Canaveral as a Category Two hurricane, continuing to move up the Florida coast into Georgia, where it is still a hurricane, though it has weakened to a Category One storm. The storm then gradually recurves over the Mid-Atlantic states and heads out to sea. A destructive Caribbean storm and nasty eastern U.S. storm, where it dumps heavy rains and causes tornadoes inland and high winds when it is along the Florida coast and in Georgia.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here's another one!

This storm is a Cape Verde-type storm that slowly strengthens into a tropical storm just east of 40W. The storm then starts to strengthen rapidly; by the time it passes through the Lesser Antilles, it has strengthened into a 175MPH Category Five hurricane. It causes severe to very severe destruction. The storm then curves more to the west-northwest, weakening to a 150MPH Category Four hurricane; however, just as it turns to the northwest before reaching the southeastern Dominican Republic, it restrengthens to 165MPH before landfall. It weakens to a Category Two after crossing the Dominican Republic; however, it turns to the west-northwest and restrengthens to a 145MPH Category Four in the central Bahamas as it starts to approach the Florida coast gradually. The storm parallels the east-central Florida coast as a Category Three, with the eye scraping the coastline. The storm makes landfall near Cape Canaveral as a Category Two hurricane, continuing to move up the Florida coast into Georgia, where it is still a hurricane, though it has weakened to a Category One storm. The storm then gradually recurves over the Mid-Atlantic states and heads out to sea. A destructive Caribbean storm and nasty eastern U.S. storm, where it dumps heavy rains and causes tornadoes inland and high winds when it is along the Florida coast and in Georgia.

the good thing is that most places would see the weaker western eyewall and would not be in a good spot for the worst of the surge or the waves. I would rather see this scenario over some of the others posted on this thread. This scenario would be very destructive for NASA though.

[wxmann_91]

Here's my hypothetical prediction:



Max winds: 175 mph
Minimum pressure in GOM: 900 mb
Minimum pressure in Atlantic: 912 mb

Landfall (Turks & Caicos): 165 mph, 912 mb
Landfall (Abaco I.): 150 mph, 922 mb
Landfall (Miami Beach, FL): 160 mph, 914 mb
Landfall (Miami, FL): 155 mph, 915 mb
Landfall (Grand Isle, LA): 125 mph, 923 mb
Landfall (just southwest of Madisonville, LA): 100 mph, 940 mb

Effects:
New Orleans submerged
MGC affected by 10-20 ft surge
Areas of Grand Isle and Plaquemines inundated by 25 ft surges
New Orleans submerged again
Near complete devastation in Miami and a 20 ft surge to Ft. Lauderdale, 10-15 ft surge up to WPB
Many Bahamians are dead since only 36 hours previously Debby was only a T.S.
Devastating freshwater flooding in southern MS and LA b/c after landfall Debby stalls
$100 billion in Miami, $125 billion in NOLA in damages, along with a $5 billion in the Bahamas. Costliest ever.

[ROCK]

Here's another one!

This storm is a Cape Verde-type storm that slowly strengthens into a tropical storm just east of 40W. The storm then starts to strengthen rapidly; by the time it passes through the Lesser Antilles, it has strengthened into a 175MPH Category Five hurricane. It causes severe to very severe destruction. The storm then curves more to the west-northwest, weakening to a 150MPH Category Four hurricane; however, just as it turns to the northwest before reaching the southeastern Dominican Republic, it restrengthens to 165MPH before landfall. It weakens to a Category Two after crossing the Dominican Republic; however, it turns to the west-northwest and restrengthens to a 145MPH Category Four in the central Bahamas as it starts to approach the Florida coast gradually. The storm parallels the east-central Florida coast as a Category Three, with the eye scraping the coastline. The storm makes landfall near Cape Canaveral as a Category Two hurricane, continuing to move up the Florida coast into Georgia, where it is still a hurricane, though it has weakened to a Category One storm. The storm then gradually recurves over the Mid-Atlantic states and heads out to sea. A destructive Caribbean storm and nasty eastern U.S. storm, where it dumps heavy rains and causes tornadoes inland and high winds when it is along the Florida coast and in Georgia.

the good thing is that most places would see the weaker western eyewall and would not be in a good spot for the worst of the surge or the waves. I would rather see this scenario over some of the others posted on this thread. This scenario would be very destructive for NASA though.

yep, wouldn't be launching from there any time soon after that.

EWG- nice to see you some where other than winter weather forum...

[Derek Ortt]

20 foot surge at Miami Beach?

Please try and be realistic with these unlikely scenarios. It just is not possible for any place on the EC of Florida to have a surge over 15, and even 10 is nearly impossible and would take a Katrina sized cat 5. The reaosn is the same shelf profile as Cayman. Only Biscayne Bay would see a surge of 15 to 20 feet, but even that would be mitigated by a 15 foot high ridge line near the Bay.

A cane in Miami,e specially a major, is a pure wind event

[Jim Cantore]

Landfalls
Cozumel: 195mph
Bay Saint Louis: 160mph


Landfalls
Cuba: 145mph
Marathon: 140mph
South Florida: 135mph
NYC: 115mph


Landfalls
Big Pine Key: 165mph
Biloxi: 135mph


Landfalls
Peurto Rico: 140mph
Cuba: 130mph
Key West 130mph
Tampa: 155mph
Outer Banks: 125mph
Montauk: 115mph
Rhode Island: 105mph
Maine: 90mph

[Scorpion]

[quote="Hurricane Floyd"]
Landfalls
Cozumel: 195mph
Bay Saint Louis: 160mph

Scary track, however 195 mph is a little overdoing it, as well as a Cat 5 GOM landfall and it keeping Cat 5 intensity over the Yucatan.

[Jim Cantore]

Landfalls
Cozumel: 195mph
Bay Saint Louis: 160mph

Scary track, however 195 mph is a little overdoing it, as well as a Cat 5 GOM landfall and it keeping Cat 5 intensity over the Yucatan.

after wilma I think 195 isnt out of the question

and notice it only passes over Cozumel basicly

[Jim Cantore]

likely? Heck no

Possible? yes

[Jim Cantore]

this on the other hand...........