Mozambique Channel: Invest 95S (Ex. TC 12S)

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.3S
51.7E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASING
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE AREA IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW IN BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIRECTIONS. MAX-
IMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE
TO VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENTS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

18/0830 UTC 16.3S 52.2E T1.0/1.0 99S -- South Indian Ocean

THE SYSTEM IS PRETTY SMALL BUT SEEMS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. FURTHERMORE, IN THE FUTURE LET SEE HOW IT WILL INTERACT WITH MADAGASCAR.

[P.K.]

FQZA31 FAPR 180830
SECURITE:
=========
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE
18th OF FEBRUARY 2006 AT 08:30 UTC.

FOR SOUTHEAST SECTOR OF METAREA VII, PREPARED BY REUNION,
SEE AREA 2 BELOW.

AREA 1:
=======
FORECAST VALID FROM 181000 TO 191000 UTC.
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METRES. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF
WAVES LESS THAN 3M.

SYNOPTIC SITUATION AT 180600 UTC
=================================
High 1022 hPa 35s18w High 1022 hPa 37s47e
Low 1010 hPa 43s17w Low 1010 hPa 37s02w Low 980 hPa 56s39e
Low 958 hPa 63s08e

1.Cold front: 27s05w 30s02w 35s02w 43s12w
2.Cold front: 43s20e 45s28e 50s37e 56s39e

AREA FORECAST:
==============

MADAGASCAR EAST: (10.5S/25S, MADAGASCAR COAST/55E)
WIND : SW 10 to 15 in the north, otherwise cyclonic 15 to 25
but SE 15 to 20 in the south.
VIS : Poor in showers.
SEA STATE: 3m, SW swell.

----------------------------------------------------------------

FQIO26 FIMP 181200
1:31:08:01:00

SECURITE

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (SOUTH) ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICES MAURITIUS ON SATURDAY 18 FEBRUARY 2006 AT 1205 UTC.

WIND SPEED IN KNOTS .

PART 2 : SYNOPSIS, SATURDAY 18 FEBRUARY 2006 - 1200 UTC.

LOW 1006 HPA NEAR 16S 52E.

TIME OF ORIGIN : 18/1205 UTC=


END=

[Yarrah]

RSMC Reunion upgraded it to TD 9 and it's forecasted to become a strong tropical storm within the next 24 hours

[James]

It is looking pretty well organised right now. Does anyone know what it will be named if it reaches that strength?

[senorpepr]

BULLETIN DU 19 FEVRIER A 16H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET SI AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES,
IL EST FORTEMENT RECOMMANDE DE SE TENIR INFORME DE L'EVOLUTION DE
LA SITUATION
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


DEPRESSION TROPICALE 09-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 999 HPA.
POSITION LE 19 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 18.5 SUD / 56.2 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE-SIX DEGRES DEUX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 270 KM AU NORD-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST A 22 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 20.7S/58.1E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 21.6S/56.5E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 22.5S/54.7E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
REACTUALISATION CE DIMANCHE A 22H30 LOCALES

[WindRunner]

And we now have a TCFA from the JTWC.

WTXS21 PGTW 191430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/191421ZFEB2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.0S 55.8E TO 20.0S 56.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 191130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.2S 55.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 18.2S 55.9E, APPROXIMATELY
500 NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE AREA IS
UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A TIGHT SHEAR
GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
201430Z.//

[HURAKAN]

19/1430 UTC 18.8S 56.5E T2.5/2.5 99S -- South Indian Ocean

[James]

Looks like the Mascarene Islands could be in for a rough ride. Hopefully it won't get too bad there.

[HURAKAN]

THE DEPRESSION HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM!

[Yarrah]

BULLETIN DU 19 FEVRIER A 19H30 LOCALES:

VIGILANCE CYCLONIQUE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************


NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 09-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 995 HPA.
POSITION LE 19 FEVRIER A 19 HEURES LOCALES: 18.8 SUD / 56.6 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE-SIX DEGRES SIX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 250 KM AU NORD-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST A 22 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 20.8S/58E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 21.8S/56.8E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 22.6S/54.5E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
REACTUALISATION CE DIMANCHE A 22H30


So it's a moderate tropical storm right now...but why doesn't Reunion name it Carina?

[HURAKAN]

NRL JUST UPGRADED THE SYSTEM TO 12S. NONAME, WITH WINDS OF 45 KNOTHS. THE NEXT NAME TO BE USED WILL BE CARINA.

[P.K.]

So it's a moderate tropical storm right now...but why doesn't Reunion name it Carina?

Probably just forgot to put it in the advisory. Anyone else having problems loading the MF page?

[HURAKAN]

THERE'S CARINA IN THIS RADAR IMAGE!

[James]

She has herself an eye feature. Perhaps this thing could strengthen rather quickly.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191421Z FEB 06//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 56.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 56.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.1S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.2S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.8S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.0S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 57.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND TRANSITORY
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TC AFTER TAU 24 CAUSING
TC 12S TO TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY TRACK. A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL WILL PERSIST IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER A STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR GRADIENT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL
CAUSE INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 191421ZFEB
06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 191430). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z AND 202100Z.



INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED!

[P.K.]

40kts

BULLETIN DU 19 FEVRIER A 22H30 LOCALES:

VIGILANCE CYCLONIQUE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 09-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 995 HPA.
POSITION LE 19 FEVRIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 19.0 SUD / 57.0 EST
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE-SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 250 KM AU NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST A 14 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 21S/57.7E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 22.4S/54.2E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 22S/49.7E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE A 04H30 LOCALES

[HURAKAN]

INTERESTING!

[WindRunner]

Already a little cool spot on the northern side of the red area in that IR shot. I'm not buying either Reunion's or JTWC's forecasts, this thing is definately going stronger than a Strong Tropical Storm IMO.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

yes this thing is developing a eye...also on radar. i say 60 knots.

[senorpepr]

40kts

40kt in 10-min average or 45kt in 1-min (US) average.