2/18 Richmond-Norfolk Snowstorm: Initial Estimates

[donsutherland1]

Perhaps "snowstorm" is too strong a word to use. Still, especially for Norfolk, which has received just 0.7" snow this winter, "snowstorm" could seem fitting when the flakes fill the air.

- There will likely be a sharp cutoff of qpf (0.25" or above) and Richmond will likely be north of that line. But even there, 0.10" appears to be a good bet. Norfolk will be quite close to the 0.50" line shown on the ensemble means.
-Warm ground temperatures could hinder snow accumulations.
- On a more serious note, the soundings are somewhat marginal (with little room for error) as one heads into southeast Virginia.

Seasonal snowfall through February 16, 2006:
Norfolk: 0.7"
Richmond: 6.6"

For now I'm thinking amounts will be fairly modest and will more than likely fall to the lower end of the range that I'm offering.

Initial Estimates:
Norfolk: 2" or less
Richmond: 2" or less

[Tstormwatcher]

I am heading up to Virginia Beach tomorrow to visit my mom, would like to see some snow while I'm there.

[donsutherland1]

Tstormwatcher,

Hopefully, there will be a little more snow there before morning. Unfortunately, so far accumulations have been very light e.g., 0.1" at ORF.

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

From 2/17/2006 11:30 am:
Norfolk: 2" or less; Actual: 0.1"; Within range
Richmond: 2" or less; Actual: 0.3"; Within range

[Tstormwatcher]

back in NC now, saw only flurries yesterday in VAB, some sleet in Elizabeth City.