(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[cheezyWXguy]

hey jeff, is there a possibilty of another NTX winter situation next weekend? if so, will it be stronger (please say yes )

[aggiecutter]

Jeff, do you think that weak upper disturbance over west texas-northern mexico could enhance the precip over the northern part of the state. I'm sitting at 29 with very light freezing rain. Anything that falls now could make driving very dangerous. I ask because the 18z GFS suggest that it might.

Satellite link..
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html

[jeff]

hey jeff, is there a possibilty of another NTX winter situation next weekend? if so, will it be stronger (please say yes )

I do not see any additional winter weather threats after this weekend through the next 16 days. We may see a cool down next week, but the upper level flow goes NW which wold make moisture even more limited than with this event.

[jeff]

Jeff, do you think that weak upper disturbance over west texas-northern mexico could enhance the precip over the northern part of the state. I'm sitting at 29 with very light freezing rain. Anything that falls now could make driving very dangerous. I ask because the 18z GFS suggest that it might.

Satellite link..
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html

I doubt there will be much increase in the light rain or drizzle across N TX tonight. Any increases will be closer to the Red River and over OK and there it will not be much. Given no ehcoes showing in the 88Ds over W TX and the surface obs out west still only showing light freezing drizzle I would not expect much QPF (maybe .01 to .05)

[southerngale]

The NWS in Beaumont is calling for a chance of freezing rain for them overnight! Be careful southerngale...roads may get slick for you tomorrow morning. Here is the forecast:

Tonight...Cloudy. Chance of rain in the evening...Then a chance of rain and light freezing rain after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Thanks..I hadn't seen that. I had to save it. lol
However, the precip has decreased a lot on radar...I doubt we'll see anything. JMO though.

The colder air is deeper N. TX esp. since the 850mb front has cleared the DFW area. It just won't be deep enough for any sleet here. If it happens, I'll eat crow but I don't exactly have it thawing out or the grill fired-up. I think the northern suburbs are safe. Maybe Hunstville...if you want to see it that much it's a 45 min. car trip. I don't know if it'd pay off though with today's gas prices

I'm still not so sure. If Beaumont is calling for freezing rain, then I have no reason to believe it wouldn't happen here too. Also, the NWS in Corpus Christi is saying that their northern areas may see some pockets of freezing rain...which would include Victoria (which is to our south). I guess I am not quite sold either way yet...to me I still need to see what happens this evening before making a call either way on the situation.

Although Beaumont is closer to the coast than Houston because of the shape of the coastline, it's still further north. It's closer to Conroe's latitude, although still south of Conroe.

Maybe that's why, or maybe it's just different NWS office's take on the situation.

I know one thing....it almost never happens exactly like anyone predicts, so if there's a chance of precip and temps will be close to freezing, you never know what will happen.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Nice analysis Jeff. This event really seemed to sneak up on us - and at one point I was thinking we might see something in the Houston metro area, but now that seems very unlikely.

After this, the forecast through the end of Feb doesn't really have any major arctic fronts coming down, so this was likely our last chance for the frozen stuff. March does have the rare event - but it's just that - rare. Oh well, maybe next winter.

It is very difficult to get the cold and the moisture at the same time this far south. We were "spoiled" in 2004 with the Great Snowstorm, before that one has to go back to 1997 for a signficant icing event. The fact is it just does not happen that often this far south. We have a much better chance of being impacted by a tropical cyclone than seeing snow or sleet during the winter.

The NWS had put out something a few years back that said that Houston will on average see ice every 3-4 years and snow every 6 years.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Current conditions at my House:

Temp = 39.9F
Sky = Overcast
Wind = very breezy out of the north

[PTrackerLA]

Nice analysis Jeff. This event really seemed to sneak up on us - and at one point I was thinking we might see something in the Houston metro area, but now that seems very unlikely.

After this, the forecast through the end of Feb doesn't really have any major arctic fronts coming down, so this was likely our last chance for the frozen stuff. March does have the rare event - but it's just that - rare. Oh well, maybe next winter.

It is very difficult to get the cold and the moisture at the same time this far south. We were "spoiled" in 2004 with the Great Snowstorm, before that one has to go back to 1997 for a signficant icing event. The fact is it just does not happen that often this far south. We have a much better chance of being impacted by a tropical cyclone than seeing snow or sleet during the winter.

The NWS had put out something a few years back that said that Houston will on average see ice every 3-4 years and snow every 6 years.

I have to disagree with that. Since 2000, we've had at least 3 snow/ice events in my area and multiple occurences in the 1990's. I'd say the chance of snow down here in the winter is about the same as the chance of being directly impacted by a Tropical storm or hurricane in the summer.

[Extremeweatherguy]

5:53pm airport reports:

HOOKS
Temp = 40F (8F above freezing)
Dewpoint = 35F (lowest all day)
Sky = Overcast

IAH
Temp = 41F (9F above freezing)
Dewpoint = 36F (lowest all day)
Sky = Overcast

CONROE
Temp = 39F (7F above freezing)
Dewpoint = 34F (lowest all day)
Sky = Overcast

[Extremeweatherguy]

Nice analysis Jeff. This event really seemed to sneak up on us - and at one point I was thinking we might see something in the Houston metro area, but now that seems very unlikely.

After this, the forecast through the end of Feb doesn't really have any major arctic fronts coming down, so this was likely our last chance for the frozen stuff. March does have the rare event - but it's just that - rare. Oh well, maybe next winter.

It is very difficult to get the cold and the moisture at the same time this far south. We were "spoiled" in 2004 with the Great Snowstorm, before that one has to go back to 1997 for a signficant icing event. The fact is it just does not happen that often this far south. We have a much better chance of being impacted by a tropical cyclone than seeing snow or sleet during the winter.

The NWS had put out something a few years back that said that Houston will on average see ice every 3-4 years and snow every 6 years.

I have to disagree with that. Since 2000, we've had at least 3 snow/ice events in my area and multiple occurences in the 1990's. I'd say the chance of snow down here in the winter is about the same as the chance of being directly impacted by a Tropical storm or hurricane in the summer.

yeah and that every 3-4 years for ice and every 6 years for snow was the average for DOWNTOWN Houston. If you compare the average occurance rates...the risk of wintry weather is the same or greater than the risk of being directly impacted by a tropical system.

[jasons2k]

Read the AFD juts posted by Houston-Galveston. Looks like Houston is in the clear. As posted earlier the core of the cold air is heading EAST. The CAA will have a hard time dropping us to freezing (it will ultimately lose the battle.....)

I just read it. Nowhere in the AFD does it say the cold air is going east. It also says that they are still not set on the situation..and that is why no advisories have been issued yet. I would not say we are "in the clear" either. I have seen crazier things happen before. One example was in Raleigh, NC in 2000...I went to bed expecting an inch of snow and woke up to over 24" with 5-6 foot snow drifts. Another time was with hurricane charley. At 10am that morning it was forecast to hit Tampa, but by noon the track shifted over 100 miles further SE. I will wait until I see where things are this evening before making my judgement on the situation...I think areas south of I-10 will be safe regardless though.

Second sentence: "BIG ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER KANSAS AND MOVING EAST"

Keep on hopin' buddy, but you're wasting your time. It's over, maybe next year....

[aggiecutter]

All cold air masses eventually move east because of the westerlies.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Read the AFD juts posted by Houston-Galveston. Looks like Houston is in the clear. As posted earlier the core of the cold air is heading EAST. The CAA will have a hard time dropping us to freezing (it will ultimately lose the battle.....)

I just read it. Nowhere in the AFD does it say the cold air is going east. It also says that they are still not set on the situation..and that is why no advisories have been issued yet. I would not say we are "in the clear" either. I have seen crazier things happen before. One example was in Raleigh, NC in 2000...I went to bed expecting an inch of snow and woke up to over 24" with 5-6 foot snow drifts. Another time was with hurricane charley. At 10am that morning it was forecast to hit Tampa, but by noon the track shifted over 100 miles further SE. I will wait until I see where things are this evening before making my judgement on the situation...I think areas south of I-10 will be safe regardless though.

Second sentence: "BIG ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER KANSAS AND MOVING EAST"

Keep on hopin' buddy, but you're wasting your time. It's over, maybe next year....

Third sentence: COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SHOULD PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

Just because the arctic high is moving east, that does not mean the cold air is heading east. In fact, we will struggle to get out of the 30s tomorrow for highs. We are also getting winds out of the due north and many places in north Texas are in the teens and 20s. I would not call that cold air heading east. As for the winter precip. chances...I now agree that they are slim at best, but it really all has to do with the temperatures. A slight 1-2F lower temp. than predicted can bring the freezing drizzle line much further south and into our area..not saying it will happen, but i'm not saying it won't either. These kind of situations are tricky, and as many have said before..the worst winter storms are the ones that hit you by surprise.

[jasons2k]

I said that myself a few pages back. Yes Aggiecutter is right all cold air masses eventually move east due to the westerlies. And as our beloved AFM pointed out a few days ago, this one is getting pushed east while still too far to the north to truly dump down here. Yes we have CAA and north winds still ongoing, but it won't be enough to push the freezing line this far south. I guess no matter what I say you'll have a retort for it. All I can say is just like last weekend, the proof will be in the numbers. It's NOT going to ice in Harris County. Maybe come tomorrow you'll see.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I said that myself a few pages back. Yes Aggiecutter is right all cold air masses eventually move east due to the westerlies. And as our beloved AFM pointed out a few days ago, this one is getting pushed east while still too far to the north to truly dump down here. Yes we have CAA and north winds still ongoing, but it won't be enough to push the freezing line this far south. I guess no matter what I say you'll have a retort for it. All I can say is just like last weekend, the proof will be in the numbers. It's NOT going to ice in Harris County. Maybe come tomorrow you'll see.

Actually I agreed that there was a slim to none chance for ice here, but if you looked at the forecast from the NWS they are calling for 33F tonight here...I really do not see why it would be so hard to get to freezing..obviously the NWS themselves think it will be a close one.

[jasons2k]

It's because the airmass has already pushed well south of us, and the ongoing trends have plenty of data now to support their forecasted numbers. The room for error is significantly less than if the front was still north of us and things like modification, extent of WAA over the cold dome, and compressional warming were still question marks. In other words, they have it pegged now (I hope). It's close but no cigar.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Current conditions at my house:

Temp: 37.9F
Sky: Mist
Wind: North breeze

[Extremeweatherguy]

Airport Updates (7pm)

Hooks = 39F with mist
IAH = 41F and overcast
Conroe = 38F and overcast

[jasons2k]

FWIW the temperature here keeps dropping a little faster than I anticipated.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Updates (8pm):

Hooks = 39F with light rain and fog
IAH = 40F and overcast
Conroe = 37F with mist
My House = 37.6F with light rain/mist

We still have about 11 hours of cooling left tonight...if we saw, lets say, a 1F drop every 2 hours..then lows would look like this:

Hooks = 32 to 33F (freezing drizzle may be a problem at sunrise)
IAH = 33-34F (should escape freezing drizzle)
Conroe = 30 to 31F (freezing drizzle likely)
My House = 30.6 to 31.6F (freezing drizzle may be a problem at sunrise)

If for some reason we have drops in temps. greater than 1F per 2 hrs..then ALL of these areas may be at risk. Stay tuned..