Official GA/AL/TN/NC/SC Cold Winter Rain Thread.

[Brent]

Yep...I saw those SWS's. Hew boy...I hate ice. I really hate ice.

I'd rather have rain.

Is there *any* chance it could be be sleet or snow, rather than freezing rain? Even a tiny chance?

Could be some sleet mixed in... could be some snow in TN on the backside, but otherwise, no.

What I'm interested in is

A. How fast the temperatures drop on Saturday. We're expected to top 50 here, and where the moisture is at the time.
B. If this southerly wind flow for Sunday verifies. If it does, then it won't be such a prolonged event.

[JenyEliza]

So this is a cold winter rain for you and me? Guess if it can't be snow...it's better than ice.

[AL Chili Pepper]

So this is a cold winter rain for you and me? Guess if it can't be snow...it's better than ice.

I agree. I was a little too far south to get in on the fun last weekend. This weekend I don't feel like I'm missing out on anything. I'd much rather have rain than freezing rain.

[JenyEliza]

Here's the latest AFD from FFC:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1025 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP AFTERNOON TEMPS AND INCREASE GRADIENT OF SKY
COVER ACROSS CWA. NEW TEMPS/POPS IN PRELIMINARY SECTION BELOW.

FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS CWA. ALREADY THROUGH PEACHTREE CITY AND LAGRANGE BUT HAVING A HARDER TIME MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SHRA ACROSS FAR NW SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TODAY...TWEAKED POPS IN SRN 1/2 OF CWA DOWN. COULD SEE VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IN SRN ZONES BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT EXPECTED.

FOR LATER PERIODS...06Z GUIDANCE IS AGAIN COLDER THAN PREVIOUS
RUN. BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THINK R/IP MIX MAY BE MORE
LIKELY SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT WITH IP/SN POSSIBLE ALONG TN AND NC BORDER. FORTUNATELY...BY THE TIME THE COLD AIR AT THE SFC GETS
HERE SAT NIGHT...WAA LIFT SHIFTS SOUTH SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT
PERHAPS EVEN SOME -FZDZ. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR WINTERY MIX AND LIGHT ICING
IN NORTH GA. WILL REVIEW SOME MORE DATA TODAY AND COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL DECISION ON WHERE AND
WHAT TIME PERIODS.

SNELSON

&&

[JenyEliza]

Don't know if this is really accurate, since it's from Accuwx, but thought I'd throw it in the discussion.

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/winter/maps ... 2&site=GA_

[JenyEliza]

Nashville has gone under a Heavy Snow Warning.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtge ... %20warning

[JenyEliza]

Brent....NAL is under a Winter Storm Watch. Any thoughts about this weekend?

[Brent]

Brent....NAL is under a Winter Storm Watch. Any thoughts about this weekend?

I don't think it's going to be a *major* event... but there could be some slick spots on bridges and overpasses. Less than 1/4 inch isn't too serious and if that forecast holds, I could see an advisory instead of a warning being issued. I'm in the row of counties to the south of it.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
656 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

....WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR THE SECOND WEEKEND IN A ROW...

.A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WILL SIGNAL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY...AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARM MOIST AIR OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD
AIR...WILL RESULT IN THE THREAT OF WINTRY WEATHER OVER N0RTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE COMBINED FORCES OF THESE TWO
FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM SULLIGENT TO JASPER...LOCUST FORK...ANNISTON...AND HEFLIN.

THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OR FALL TO NEAR FREEZING. AT THIS TIME...SOME OF THE
COLDER LOCATIONS COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY ON RAISED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES...TREES...AND
POWER LINES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN MOVES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF...ENDING AS EITHER LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW
FLURRIES.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE MAGNITUDE AND SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE THREAT OF WINTRY WEATHER. PERSONS IN AND NEAR THE
WATCH AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.

ALZ011>015-017>021-026-172100-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0001.060218T1200Z-060219T0600Z/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-ST. CLAIR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...PELL CITY...MOODY
656 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
SATURDAY...WILL BRING THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
SULLIGENT...TO JASPER...LOCUST FORK...ANNISTON...AND HEFLIN.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO...AND HOVER
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING...AND AS IT DOES...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH
OVER TO EITHER LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES.

AT THIS TIME...ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...ICE ACCUMULATING ON ELEVATED
ROADS AND BRIDGES MAY MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS...AND SPOTTY POWER
OUTAGES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS CAN ALSO CAUSE DAMAGE TO
TREES AND POWER LINES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR
OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER SITUATION.

[JenyEliza]

Thanks for your input Brent.

I don't know why I keep hoping we'll have a miracle and get some real snow down here. Not happening (this year, anyway).

Silly me.

[Brent]

Thanks for your input Brent.

I don't know why I keep hoping we'll have a miracle and get some real snow down here. Not happening (this year, anyway).

Silly me.

It doesn't even look like there will be that much moisture when it's cold enough(and it's still iffy to if Atlanta and the I-20 corridor get cold enough).

It is 36 degrees in Cullman(between Huntsville and Birmingham) and 64 at LaGrange, GA right now.

[Brent]

FFC is not excited at all... only an advisory for their far NW counties.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
301 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

GAZ001>005-180415-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0005.060218T1100Z-060218T2300Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-
301 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM
EST SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM AND SPREAD ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
GEORGIA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN BEFORE MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIKELY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AS WELL AS EXPOSED SURFACES SUCH
AS TREES...POWER LINES AND BRIDGES.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING
BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD CAUSE
RE-FREEZING OF ANY WATER ON ROADWAYS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

[JenyEliza]

I saw that from FFC.

Heck...according to my Wxbug, it's 57 where I'm at.

At least for the Atlanta area, I think this week's anticipation has been much ado about nothing.

More cold winter rain from this weekend until Wednesday next week.

Oh well. Guess we really don't need to change the title of this thread, afterall.

[Brent]

HUN went with an advisory and BMX is sticking with a Winter Storm Watch.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
258 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

....WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS WEEKEND...

.A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE STATE AND COLD AIR WILL
FUNNEL SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST STATES SINKS SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE DOME OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
SULLIGENT TO JASPER...TO LOCUST FORK...TO ANNISTON...AND HEFLIN.

ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH
30S DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE WATCH AREA WILL
FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW... AND SOME LOCATIONS COULD
SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...ESPECIALLY
ON RAISED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES...TREES...AND POWER LINES.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ENDING AS EITHER LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES.


ALZ017>021-026-180500-
/O.EXT.KBMX.WS.A.0001.060218T1200Z-060219T0000Z/
BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-ST. CLAIR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...ANNISTON...CENTRE...
HEFLIN...PELL CITY...MOODY
258 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE COMBINATION OF A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
SATURDAY...WILL BRING THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING
WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM WARRIOR...TO SPRINGVILLE...TO
ANNISTON...TO HEFLIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE. ICE ACCUMULATING ON ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES
MAY MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS...AND SPOTTY POWER OUTAGES MAY BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO OR
HOVER NEAR THE FREEZING MARK DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AS IT
DOES...THE PRECIPITATION WILL SWITCH OVER TO EITHER LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS CAN ALSO CAUSE DAMAGE TO
TREES AND POWER LINES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER SITUATION.

[GeneratorPower]

We've got Ice Storm Warnings for the Tupelo, MS area. Forecast office is Memphis, TN.

[brunota2003]

yay...90% chance of rain tomorrow with temps struggling to make it to 44*F...ugh...does that count as "Cold Winter Rain"???

[JenyEliza]

yay...90% chance of rain tomorrow with temps struggling to make it to 44*F...ugh...does that count as "Cold Winter Rain"???

*That* is classic, southern-style Cold Winter Rain, my friend.

[brunota2003]

yay...90% chance of rain tomorrow with temps struggling to make it to 44*F...ugh...does that count as "Cold Winter Rain"???

*That* is classic, southern-style Cold Winter Rain, my friend.

That was what I was afraid of... hey...it only drops about 10*F from that 44*F and it could be the Christmas of 1989 all over again...

[Skywatch_NC]

yay...90% chance of rain tomorrow with temps struggling to make it to 44*F...ugh...does that count as "Cold Winter Rain"???

*That* is classic, southern-style Cold Winter Rain, my friend.

That was what I was afraid of... hey...it only drops about 10*F from that 44*F and it could be the Christmas of 1989 all over again...

Tim, you and your folks come out to Raleigh tomorrow as Wake Co. and northward could get between a trace to an inch of accumulation on grassy surfaces by late day!

[brunota2003]

i would...but got things to do...just send some my way... actually, i have three bags of snow in the freezer from 2004's december snow storm the one around the 20th, we got four inches that day!!!...

[NCWisher]

yay...90% chance of rain tomorrow with temps struggling to make it to 44*F...ugh...does that count as "Cold Winter Rain"???

*That* is classic, southern-style Cold Winter Rain, my friend.

That was what I was afraid of... hey...it only drops about 10*F from that 44*F and it could be the Christmas of 1989 all over again...

Tim, you and your folks come out to Raleigh tomorrow as Wake Co. and northward could get between a trace to an inch of accumulation on grassy surfaces by late day!

Wouldn't count on it the way this winter is going...

Anything can happen though!