(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

wxman22 · #461 Postby **wxman22** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 12:06 pm

jeff wrote:Winter Storm to impact the state this weekend.

Increasing threat for freezing rain and icing across SE TX this weekend.

Latest model guidance has come in even colder for the Saturday night through Monday morning time frame with the threat for freezing rain being expanded southward. Feel central and northern counties may be under the gun for icing starting Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Although amounts are forecast to be light, even a very small amount of ice can make for hazardous driving conditions.

A Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Watch may be required for locations north of I-10 late today or early Saturday.

Will take a very close look at the prospects for freezing rain and ice this afternoon and send another e-mail before 400pm.

wxman22 · #462 Postby **wxman22** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 12:20 pm

Look at the new 12z run loop of the NAM precip type (NOTE: STARTING TO GET MORE CONCERN ON THE WINTRY WX SITUATION IF THIS TREND CONTINUES........)

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=US

#463 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 12:23 pm

Well, EWG, you may have been right yesterday after all

I am a bit surprised at the new guidance.

#464 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 12:25 pm

jschlitz wrote:Well, EWG, you may have been right yesterday after all I am a bit surprised at the new guidance.

Yup, props to Extremeweatherguy might be in order after all! The guidance continues to get colder and the chances for frozen precip grow.

I'm sure he's thrilled.

Furious George · #465 Postby **Furious George** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 12:38 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:wow! look at day 2 on accuweather (Sat). If this is right then ice could surely reach Houston!

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/winter/maps ... 2&site=TXS

I've looked at this map a few times and the ice line continues to dive further south over time as models trend colder.

#466 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 12:43 pm

im looking at the radars out of the SW us..and the 700mb and WV and the moisture train is starting to set up

#467 Postby **gboudx** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 12:46 pm

deltadog03 wrote:im looking at the radars out of the SW us..and the 700mb and WV and the moisture train is starting to set up

Still looks on target for DFW for evening? I don't want to drive home on ice.

Furious George · #468 Postby **Furious George** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 12:58 pm

Furious George wrote:NWS now predicting 44 for a high on Saturday for areas in North Houston - near IAH.

Looks like we have an outside chance of reaching or breaking two records at IAH. Todays record high is 81 (currently 77). Saturday's low max record is 43 - that one's going to be a little more difficult, but not completely out of the question.

We tied the record high of 81 on Thursday. Now it looks like we'll hit a new record for lowest max temp on Sat (record is 43) and Sunday too (record is 46).

aggiecutter · #469 Postby **aggiecutter** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 1:23 pm

Looking at the latest precip output from the ETA shows that the NE portion of the state could be in for heavy icing. However, some of that might be sleet as the cold air layer is supposed to increase to 6,000' by tomorrow, which would support sleet rather than freezing rain. If not, then there will be major power outages in this part of the state.

ETA...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _024.shtml

weatherrabbit_tx · #470 Postby **weatherrabbit_tx** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 2:04 pm

forecast is going more interesting coming at four, I agree on the winter storm watch for north of I-10, so if your in spring/klein, tomball, the woodlands heads up!

#471 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 2:05 pm

ummm look at the forecast for the mobile area, this is a tad north of me but look at saturday night! chance of wintry precip anyone?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... 3&map.y=82

Extremeweatherguy · #472 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 4:08 pm

Latest from the NWS in Houston:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
251 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE WITH THE LEADING EDGE
CLEARLY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. TEMPERATURES
ARE HOLDING STEADY...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S UP NORTH TO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT READINGS TO SLOWLY FALL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO GO DOWN TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF THE
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THESE RAINS SHOULD PERSIST INTO
TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE TOMORROW WITH
READINGS HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 INLAND AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. IF IT DOES
GET COLD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LIVINGSTON TO
CONROE TO COLUMBUS. TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FURTHER SOUTH
OF THIS LINE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
FROZEN STUFF CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON AREA. STAY TUNED! HAVE WARMED
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...
BUT HAVE GENERALLY NOT GONE AS WARM AS THE GFSX MOS. EXPECT ON AND
OFF CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPSHGX) WILL BE UPDATED BEFORE 21Z
TO COVER THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER EVENT. 42

I expect their forecast by tomorrow to inlude us in the wintry weather area...looks like they are holding back a little this afternoon though..but they DO mention the possibility.

wxman22 · #473 Postby **wxman22** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 4:41 pm

Heres the NEW special weather statement update:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-181200-
MATAGORDA BAY-GALVESTON BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-HOUSTON-TRINITY-
MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-
MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-
FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...
BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...LIBERTY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...
BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...
WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...
BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...GALVESTON...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...
FRIENDSWOOD
334 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
WHICH MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL
JUST BE RAIN.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE ON SATURDAY WITH INLAND
READINGS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. STARTING
SATURDAY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONLY RAIN AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES DO APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK...A
MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE. THIS CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LIVINGSTON TO CONROE TO COLUMBUS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA.

WEEKEND TRAVEL NORTH AND WEST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...TOWARD THE RED
RIVER OR THE HILL COUNTRY AREAS...SHOULD BE AVOIDED IF POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE CHANCE OF FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES...INCLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS...WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

$$

Extremeweatherguy · #474 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 4:43 pm

they have moved that line southward. Yesterday it was a College station to Huntsville to Lufkin line, and today it is all the way down to conroe...if this is a trend, then the next update may have that line down to IAH. Either way..Conroe is mighty close, and areas north of I-10 need to watch the situation closely.

Kelarie · #475 Postby **Kelarie** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 4:45 pm

Freezing Rain Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
329 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON ON SATURDAY FOR THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...

.COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN TONIGHT BUT CHANGE OVER THE FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FREEZING RAIN MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AROUND NOON. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...MEASURING LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR ON ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES.

TXZ171>173-184>192-205-206-181000-
/O.NEW.KEWX.ZR.Y.0001.060218T0600Z-060218T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BEXAR-COMAL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS 329 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN TONIGHT IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT MEASURING LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH...WITH ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY OCCURRING ON ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Extremeweatherguy · #476 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 5:34 pm

^^Accuweather.com maps shows a glaze of freezing rain all the way down through Houston and Galveston tomorrow!!!^^

southerngale · #477 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 5:41 pm

KFDM here in Beaumont slightly lowered the low and high again for Sunday but raised tomorrow's high a little. Are models trending colder for tomorrow? If so, I assume they'll change that again.

Extremeweatherguy · #478 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 5:53 pm

southerngale wrote:KFDM here in Beaumont slightly lowered the low and high again for Sunday but raised tomorrow's high a little. Are models trending colder for tomorrow? If so, I assume they'll change that again.

Some local mets here in Houston are saying that we will drop through the day...so even if it is 47F there tomorrow morning, it may be 35F there tomorrow evening. The NWS here in Houston however has a high of 39-40F. Basically...whatever you wake up to tomorrow will be your high and as the rain moves in..you should have falling or steady temps. all day.

Furious George · #479 Postby **Furious George** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 5:55 pm

This one includeds the Woodlands (getting close to the Houston suburbs).

AUSTIN-COLORADO-MONTGOMERY-WALLER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BROOKSHIRE...COLUMBUS...
CONROE...EAGLE LAKE...HEMPSTEAD...SEALY...THE WOODLANDS...WEIMAR
328 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. COLDER. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY
IN THE EVENING...THEN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EARLY
IN THE MORNING...THEN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

Extremeweatherguy · #480 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 6:01 pm

Here is my latest idea for north Houston:

Tonight = Cloudy and getting colder. Low near 39F-41F by sunrise tomorrow. 30% chance of light showers. Light breeze.

Saturday = Overcast and cold. Highs near 39-41F in the morning, but temps. falling into the 30s by afternoon. 60% chance of light showers and possibly a few sleet pellets. Light breeze.

Saturday night = Cloudy and cold. Lows 31-33F. 50% chance of rain and freezing rain with a few sleet pellets mixed in. Ice accumulations of 0.01" to 0.1" in areas north of a Cypress to Aldine line, with 0" to 0.01" as far south as I-10.

Sunday = Cloudy and cold. Highs 38-41F. 40% chance of light rain and possible frozen precip. in the morning. Light ice accumulations will lead to bad driving conditions on elevated road ways in the morning. Light breezes.

(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

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