91W Invest at WPAC

[cycloneye]

They change it to 91w now but it's the same system that had the 99 number.It looks more interesting right now.

[HURAKAN]

It has blossomed but no apparent structure seems present, therefore, I will wait a few more hours to do any type of pronouncement in pro or in con the system intensification process.

[P.K.]

Hmmm, odd for the number to change.
Have to keep an eye on the MetArea forecasts I think then.

[James]

It's flaring up a little right now.

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 161800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 161800.
WARNING VALID 171800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 48N 143E SOUTH OF SAKHALIN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 48N 143E TO 47N 144E 45N 143E.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 143E TO 44N 145E 43N 148E.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 143E TO 42N 142E 39N 140E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 50N 149E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 994 HPA
AT 49N 180E SEA AROUND ALEUTIANS MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 50N 179W TO 49N 174W 46N 171W 44N 171W.
WARM FRONT FROM 44N 171W TO 43N 168W 40N 166W.
COLD FRONT FROM 44N 171W TO 41N 172W 37N 179W.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1008 HPA
AT 38N 151E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 56N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 04N 139E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1042 HPA AT 40N 108E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 45N 157E ENE 15 KT.
HIGH 1030 HPA AT 30N 180E ENE SLOWLY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N 124E TO 26N 131E 31N 137E 34N 141E 35N 147E
38N 151E 39N 158E 37N 166E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[cycloneye]

16/2233 UTC 3.2N 137.5E T1.0/1.0 91W -- West Pacific Ocean

[James]

The chances for development have been downgraded to 'POOR' now.

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 171800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 50N 148E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING SOUTH SLOWLY.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 51N 163E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 992 HPA
AT 45N 165E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 165E TO 46N 172E 46N 180E.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 165E TO 40N 162E 35N 157E 30N 151E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 151E TO 27N 145E 24N 140E 22N 135E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 57N 178W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 150
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 992 HPA
AT 58N 179E BERING SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY
29N 122E 21N 130E 17N 122E 15N 110E 21N 110E 24N 118E 29N 122E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 55N 167E ENE 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 04N 134E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1034 HPA AT 32N 121E EAST 15 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Coredesat]

17/2033 UTC 4.7N 131.8E T1.5/1.5 91W

...but I don't see why:

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 180600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 180600.
WARNING VALID 190600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 51N 173E SEA AROUND ALEUTIANS MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 51N 173E TO 52N 176E 53N 179E.
WARM FRONT FROM 53N 179E TO 53N 177W 53N 173W.
COLD FRONT FROM 53N 179E TO 42N 172E 35N 163E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 163E TO 32N 156E 27N 147E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 600
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 62N 173W WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 60
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 66N 180E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 984 HPA AT 61N 174E
MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 996 HPA
AT 50N 152E SEA AROUND KURILS MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY
27N 120E 26N 126E 24N 125E 23N 116E 27N 120E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 04N 132E WEST 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 33N 123E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 36N 147E EAST 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20N 109E TO 21N 114E 24N 121E 24N 126E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[cycloneye]

Convection has deepened in the past few hours.

[Epsilon_Fan]

something appears to be stirring...

[cycloneye]

Convection may be very good but if the low level circulation is not fully or apart from the convection then no development will occur.Let's see if it organizes better in the next few hours and days as it emerges in the China Sea.

[P.K.]

No change

WWJP25 RJTD 190600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 190600.
WARNING VALID 200600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 1012 HPA
AT 47N 162E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EAST 20 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 29N 122E 29N 127E 26N 126E 22N 120E 23N 117E 29N 122E.
GALE WARNING.
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 53N 165E 60N 165E 60N 180E 49N 180E 46N 171E 53N 165E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1022 HPA AT 35N 143E ENE SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 04N 128E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 34N 124E ENE 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 38N 160E EAST 20 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20N 118E TO 22N 122E 25N 125E 26N 129E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N 129E TO 31N 135E 30N 141E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N 164E TO 36N 173E 44N 178W 48N 170W.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[James]

Looks like land interaction has put a stopper on it for now, but lets see what happens when it re-emerges.