southern plains freezing rain/sleet thread

#61 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 5:18 pm

If we get an inch of ice, the whole area is in trouble. Better hope we don't see that.

cheezyWXguy · #62 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 5:19 pm

This is incredable...so much for the NWS not getting onboard until its happened like in december... ITS A FIRST!!! hahaha jk :wink:

wxman22 · #63 Postby **wxman22** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 5:21 pm

Looks like you folks in th DFW area MAY have to share some of that frozen precip with us notce I said MAY:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
339 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-171200-
MATAGORDA BAY-GALVESTON BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-HOUSTON-TRINITY-
MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-
MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-
FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...
BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...LIBERTY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...
BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...
WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...
BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...GALVESTON...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...
FRIENDSWOOD
339 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
ON TOWARD THE COAST SOME TIME BEFORE MID-MORNING TOMORROW. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN A RETURN
TO MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA.

FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH LOWER 40S INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST
EXPECTED BY SUNSET. CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CLOUDY SKIES...COLD
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PERSIST. AT THIS TIME...
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY RAIN
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
COMPUTER MODEL TREND POINTS TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES. IF THIS TREND PERSISTS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.

WEEKEND TRAVEL NORTH AND WEST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...TOWARD THE RED
RIVER OR THE HILL COUNTRY AREAS...SHOULD BE AVOIDED IF POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE CHANCE OF FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES... INCLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS...WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES
FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

$$

[/u]

#64 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 5:22 pm

cheezywxman wrote:This is incredable...so much for the NWS not getting onboard until its happened like in december... ITS A FIRST!!! hahaha jk

NWS FT WORTH TX HWO.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...

AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO NORTH TEXAS...MOISTURE WILL
OVERRUN THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS FRIDAY. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...
AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD LATE AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. FREEZING
RAIN...AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SLEET...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO END DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OVER ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

cheezyWXguy · #65 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 5:24 pm

I think this may rival 2003...we got two days off of school! It was a load of fun...but we had to make up school on a saturday!

#66 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 5:29 pm

Weather Forecast for 2/17 thru 2/19

Friday: A 20 percent chance of rain after noon. Cloudy, with a temperature rising to near 38 by 10am, then falling to around 32 during the remainder of the day. North northeast wind around 15 mph.

Friday Night: Freezing rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. North northeast wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday: A chance of freezing rain and sleet before noon, then a chance of freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high around 32. North northeast wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: A chance of freezing rain or sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Northeast wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday: A chance of freezing rain before noon, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 33. East northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night: A chance of freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low near 28. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30%

#67 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 5:32 pm

I really hope the air is not as shallow and we get more sleet than freezing rain. At least my kid can use his sled on sleet.

Extremeweatherguy · #68 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 5:36 pm

My prediction is a pretty significant ice storm for north Texas, but I think that areas in Central and SE Texas also see some ice out of this situation. Here are my predictions:

North Texas = Most areas receive 0.25-0.50" of ice...some areas may see 1"+ (especially the areas that see sleet).

Central Texas (Hill Country) = Most areas see 0.01-0.1" of ice, but a few areas see up to 0.25".

SE Texas = Glaze of ice possible north of I-10, with possible amounts up to 0.1" in isolated pockets of northern SE Texas.

**These ideas will change hour by hour.**

#69 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 5:44 pm

I think I-10 in SE Texas is WAY too far south for this event. Maybe the closest to Houston will be the big hill in Centerville, but that's about it IMO.

Extremeweatherguy · #70 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 5:59 pm

jschlitz wrote:I think I-10 in SE Texas is WAY too far south for this event. Maybe the closest to Houston will be the big hill in Centerville, but that's about it IMO.

I don't know. Have you looked at any of the NWS forecasts or read the discussions? My forecast low for Saturday night is 35F (only 3F above freezing) in north Houston. They also said that they may have to trend their forecasts colder. I would not be surprised to see a glaze of ice in northern Houston...not saying it WILL happen...just saying I wouldn't be surprised if it did. All it will take for ice is air that is 2-4F colder than the current forecast.

#71 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 6:02 pm

I've looked at the models and read the AFDs today. I think all we'll see is a cold rain. I'm afraid you might be getting your hopes up again for nothing. But hey, I could be wrong. After all, we did have some sleet pellets awhile back; anything could happen. I just don't see it, at least not yet. I will have to say though, this front does have some punch to it.

cheezyWXguy · #72 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 6:04 pm

jschlitz wrote:I've looked at the models and read the AFDs today. I think all we'll see is a cold rain. I'm afraid you might be getting your hopes up again for nothing. But hey, I could be wrong. After all, we did have some sleet pellets awhile back; anything could happen. I just don't see it, at least not yet. I will have to say though, this front does have some punch to it.

I think yall have a chance of sleet mixing in with the rain at nite but mainly a cold winter rain...sry EWG

Extremeweatherguy · #73 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 6:10 pm

jschlitz wrote:I've looked at the models and read the AFDs today. I think all we'll see is a cold rain. I'm afraid you might be getting your hopes up again for nothing. But hey, I could be wrong. After all, we did have some sleet pellets awhile back; anything could happen. I just don't see it, at least not yet. I will have to say though, this front does have some punch to it.

Yeah, I am trying not to get my hopes up too high yet, but I just have the feeling that a situation like this could bring some frozen precip. down this way. I am still in a wait and see mode though and I will not get to excited until I see what happens tomorrow. One positive thing is that San Antonio is forecasting Frz. rain with this system..so if it is possible there; then it is possible here too.

cheezyWXguy · #74 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 7:09 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
jschlitz wrote:I've looked at the models and read the AFDs today. I think all we'll see is a cold rain. I'm afraid you might be getting your hopes up again for nothing. But hey, I could be wrong. After all, we did have some sleet pellets awhile back; anything could happen. I just don't see it, at least not yet. I will have to say though, this front does have some punch to it.
Yeah, I am trying not to get my hopes up too high yet, but I just have the feeling that a situation like this could bring some frozen precip. down this way. I am still in a wait and see mode though and I will not get to excited until I see what happens tomorrow. One positive thing is that San Antonio is forecasting Frz. rain with this system..so if it is possible there; then it is possible here too.

not neccesarily ewg, remember, san antonio is farther inland so it has more elevation and isnt as warm becaasuse of the coastal warmer waters

cheezyWXguy · #75 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 7:10 pm

anyway...its coming in NTX rite now..the winds are terrible its like a mini-dust storm up here and the temps have prebably dropped about 10 degrees

#76 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 7:14 pm

I think it's passing through Rockwall right now. Wind has really picked up out of the NW and it feels much cooler already.

Edit: I can watch the temp drop by using my Weatherbug. Pretty neat.

cheezyWXguy · #77 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 7:17 pm

im gonna download weatherbug now...yall think its pretty good so y not give it a try, eh?

plainsman · #78 Postby **plainsman** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 7:21 pm

ya gbuodx.. i knew they put a winter storm watch up for the dfw metro area. the ingredients were all there ya know.... now ill go all out and say this could be one of the worst ice storms ever for DFW theres a ton of moisture to work with and the temps are going to be way cold enough fro accumulation.. temps for high sat and sun will be 31 32 and lows in the mid 20s constant freezing rain/sleet from friday evening till monday morning :lol:

man this could be a big winter storm

and i think sanantonio and austin will see some light winter precip not near as bad as DFW.. i dont think houston will see anything, maybe some sleet mixed in at night, just too much warm gulf air there, college station is about as far south ice and sleet will hit i think until you go west the hill country should see accumulating ice out of this.... man it looks like a godd winter storm :wink:

cheezyWXguy · #79 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 7:24 pm

a "godd" one eh? lol...anyway...it shows my temps have dropped from 81 to 62.8 degrees in about 40 min

Extremeweatherguy · #80 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 7:30 pm

I don't know about warm gulf air. :wink:

I don't consider a high of only 39-41F warm..but yes, I think chances are definitely slim here for Houston...but they are not 0%. I would not be surprised at all to get a glaze of ice on Saturday night here. I still am going to wait until tomorrow though before I get my hopes up as many factors can still change.

southern plains freezing rain/sleet thread

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