Snowstorm on Thursday for the plains?

[PurdueWx80]

SPC already issuing mesoscale discussions for heavy snow in WY/NE and then in southern WI for tonight's "pre" event. Be sure to check out the NE one - it shows how models are already showing a northward bias, as precip is heavier further south than expected. Not a trend yet, but definitely something to watch since 18z models have shifted forcing signals ever so slightly further south for tomorrow. It'ill be interesting to see 00z model runs, as usual.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md

[jhamps10]

Now I know that this is kinda off of snow topic, but this storm system is strong enough to create severe weather tommorow in the Ohio-Mid Mississippi river valleys. I for one am glad that I am not getting the 5-10 inches of snow that you guys up north of me are.

We just have to worry about twisters ALL year long now instead of getting a really good snowstorm in the winter.

[PurdueWx80]

We've picked up 3 inches of snow on the SW side of Madison in the last 2 hours (2 of which fell in the first hour of the event) - quite impressive totals so far. I expect another 1-2" here tonight.

[WaitingForSiren]

Nothing. Total bust here in Minnesota...we probably wont even see ONE SNOWFLAKE...but oh well, Im sure there will be another snowstorm this winter...hopefully. Heck, maybe wed be better off just skipping snow and going right to an early severe weather season. And about severe weather, I think severe storms are possible today. The best area is extreme northeast arkansas, southeast missouri and southern illinois..there could be a few tornadoes there today along with hail and maybe isolated wind damage.

[Nate-Gillson]

It's snowing and lightning here. Counties just to my south and east are under an ice storm warning, yuck.

[Air Force Met]

Nothing. Total bust here in Minnesota...we probably wont even see ONE SNOWFLAKE...but oh well, Im sure there will be another snowstorm this winter...hopefully. Heck, maybe wed be better off just skipping snow and going right to an early severe weather season. And about severe weather, I think severe storms are possible today. The best area is extreme northeast arkansas, southeast missouri and southern illinois..there could be a few tornadoes there today along with hail and maybe isolated wind damage.

Hate to say I told you so...but...don't put your money on the NGM.

There's a reason we in the biz call it the No Good Model.

Seriously, take a look at my heavy snow forecasting rules post and the next time you see something that may being you some heavy snow...check it with the rules. Bottom line for your location was the 850mb temp. When the atmosphere is that cold it can't hold that much moisture...especially not 10" worth of snow....plus in a deepening system the heavy stuff wants to be around where the dynamics are...which was well south of you.

[PurdueWx80]

I HAVE NEVER IN MY LIFE SEEN THIS!!!!

MY APT IS A MERE 2 BLOCKS FROM THE STATE CAPITOL AND I CAN NOT SEE IT. HEAVY SNOW, AT WHAT I ASSUME TO BE 3"+ PER HOUR RATES IS FALLING WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THUNDER!!!!!!

SIMPLY AMAZING

[Stephanie]

It's a HUGE storm affecting alot of people.

Be careful Purdue!

[Air Force Met]

I HAVE NEVER IN MY LIFE SEEN THIS!!!!

MY APT IS A MERE 2 BLOCKS FROM THE STATE CAPITOL AND I CAN NOT SEE IT. HEAVY SNOW, AT WHAT I ASSUME TO BE 3"+ PER HOUR RATES IS FALLING WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THUNDER!!!!!!

SIMPLY AMAZING

Believe it or not...I had that in Dec of '04 in SETX

We got 9" and about 3" of that came in about 1 hour. At one time...vis was down to 1/16 of a mile...I could barely see across the street. The flakes were HUGE.

[PurdueWx80]

Well that was certainly fun...and one hell of a way to wake up!!! (I work 2nd shift).

We're in the dry slot now so everything has ended for the time being. We'll get into the deformation snows this afternoon with a few more inches expected. Near blizzard conditions back in Iowa right now, and some also on the Lake MI shoreline (Green Bay). Have seen reports of numerous accidents in SE WI near Milwaukee where hail and freezing rain were falling in the thunderstorms. Temps in the 60s in NE Illinois while they're in the low 20s here - that's one heck of a cold front!

[lospantalones]

We are NOT in the 60's in NE Illinois. We have been sitting at 35 for the whole event this morning.
Heavy rain and frequent lightning... the storms were training across my area (30 miles north of Chicago) it's all headed into the northern section of the lower penn. of Michigan. Can't imagine what it will be like up there!
We received a couple of inches of sleet/snow last night from the first wave. We've been at or just above freezing ever since.

[Air Force Met]

We are NOT in the 60's in NE Illinois. We have been sitting at 35 for the whole event this morning.
Heavy rain and frequent lightning... the storms were training across my area (30 miles north of Chicago) it's all headed into the northern section of the lower penn. of Michigan. Can't imagine what it will be like up there!
We received a couple of inches of sleet/snow last night from the first wave. We've been at or just above freezing ever since.

Well...I'm not sure if you consider Kankakee, IL as NE IL...but looking at a map (and I'm not from there), I would. Their either NE IL or E IL...but pretty darn close to NE IL to me...anyway...they are at 61 degrees this hour. Lansing Municiple (which is NE IL) is 57 and Gary, IN over the border is 60.

So...point is that it is a very strong gradient. Some parts of NE IL are in the low 30's (up near the WI border) and other parts are in the upper 50's to near 60.

30 degrees in a short distance. That's a big gradient.

[WaitingForSiren]

With the exception of nebraska, i would say this storm was a bust in almost every place. Much more dry air got worked in...and the snow amounts were much less than forecast./ My friend who lives in Mankato is probably flaming pissed right now...lol.

[PurdueWx80]

I guess I considered Kankakee to be in NE IL - those are the obs I was speaking of. Gary, IN was also in the low 60s - can't get much closer to NE IL than that (without actually being there). I realize most of Chicago (other than the S/SE burbs) were only in the 30s. Sorry!

[PurdueWx80]

Not sure you can call it a bust when the storm isn't even close to being over. Blizzard warnings have just gone up in Green Bay.

Also, there are trained spotter reports of over 12" of snow in Madison from this event. We will get another few inches this evening. Just wait 'til the storm is over and reports come in before declaring the NWS forecasts a failure.

[WaitingForSiren]

wow 12 inches? I dunno, with the exception of a narrow area southeast of Madison and maybe a little northwest of green bay, Id say this thing wasnt as big as forecast over a large area. I mean, we didnt even see one flake and they still forecasted 1-4 over my area, and Mankato only got like 2 inches with a forecast of 5.

[chizniz16]

With the exception of nebraska, i would say this storm was a bust in almost every place. Much more dry air got worked in...and the snow amounts were much less than forecast./ My friend who lives in Mankato is probably flaming pissed right now...lol.

This is true, I am extremly dissapointed with how this turned out. We had enough snow pass over us, but the moisture levels just were not there. As the flakes fell through the sky they lost 90 percent of their moisture and we just have a million tiny specs. We ended up with a monster 2 inches, when we should have had 5-8. We still got off school because of the blowing snow, but I would rather had 6 and not got cancelled.

[cheezyWXguy]

With the exception of nebraska, i would say this storm was a bust in almost every place. Much more dry air got worked in...and the snow amounts were much less than forecast./ My friend who lives in Mankato is probably flaming pissed right now...lol.

This is true, I am extremly dissapointed with how this turned out. We had enough snow pass over us, but the moisture levels just were not there. As the flakes fell through the sky they lost 90 percent of their moisture and we just have a million tiny specs. We ended up with a monster 2 inches, when we should have had 5-8. We still got off school because of the blowing snow, but I would rather had 6 and not got cancelled.

I no what u mean...I remeber my december icestorm...how we got almost nothing but still got a day off of school

[plainsman]

cheezy the northern suberbs got just a little on dec.7 and 8th while the acual cities of Dallas and fort worth got hit really hard with ice sleet and snow... i was in the city Dallas and the sleet and ice was really bad and it was decieving because there was snow on top, thats why there were so many car wrecks... all of the area should get hit hard with this storm the winter storm watch already up should change to a winter storm warning tomorrow i bet... what do you think? this storm will be better because theres more chances of freezing rain and sleet and snow like 3 days straight and the temps will be a little colder

[PurdueWx80]

Official total in Madison was 10.1" though many locations in and near the city (especially just E and NE) picked up anywhere from 11-14". I must admit I'm a bit surprised it turned out the way it did. Here is a prelim accumulation map out of MKX:



I'm still in complete awe over what I saw when I woke up this morning. I've heard thundersnow before but this is the first time I've actually seen the lightning (it was really close).

There is something so peaceful about everything being covered in (a lot of) white now. It really is a gorgeous site....especially the 2-4' drifts. My family is coming up for the weekend so I'm sure they're gonna love this (though they'll hate the -20 to -30 wind chills). They drove up halfway tonight and saw all sorts of overturned semis on I-65 and I-74 near Indy - all due to the squall line that went through there. We're going hiking/snowshoeing on Sunday so I'll be sure to post some pics once I get 'em up.