MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...FAR NRN AL...FAR NRN GA...AND FAR WRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 110629Z - 111030Z
   
   PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM WEST TO
   EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INCREASING RATE OF CHANGE TOWARDS 12Z.
   MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
   SMOKY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TOWARDS 12Z. SNOWFALL RATES
   IN THIS AREA MAY REACH 1 IN/HR.
   
   UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
   BY WAY OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
   SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
   PROVIDING BROAD UPWARD MOTION OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY
   SHOWED A BAROCLINIC LEAF AND THE SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED AN
   INVERTED TROUGH AXIS RUNNING NORTH-TO-SOUTH FROM CENTRAL AL INTO
   MIDDLE TN. TO THE LEFT OF THIS TROUGH...LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   MAINTAIN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING. TOWARDS
   12Z...AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST...LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
   ADVECTION SHOULD ACCELERATE ACROSS FAR NRN AL AND ERN TN.
   
   FARTHER TO THE EAST...RUC/ETA/GFS MODELS INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL JET
   AXIS PUNCHING NORTH THROUGH GA BY 12Z. EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
   WARM THETA-E ADVECTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION...SOME
   OF THIS WILL PUSH INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS/SMOKY MTN REGION TOWARDS
   12Z. THIS COMBINED WITH THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SHOULD
   PROMOTE ENOUGH LIFT TO COOL THE THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILES IN THESE
   AREAS TO CHANGE RAIN TO ALL SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES MAY APPROACH 1
   IN/HR IN THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND 12Z.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...HUN...
   
   36598385 36298544 35328678 34448735 34568543 34858323
   35998187 36498265

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0135
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0622 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TN...NWRN NC...ERN KY...CNTRL AND SRN WV...WRN
   THROUGH NRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 111222Z - 111615Z
   
   SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING FROM PARTS OF
   THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH WRN VA WITH RATES LOCALLY FROM .5 TO 1
   INCH PER HOUR.
   
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT SPREADING ENEWD
   THROUGH ERN TN AND EXTREME ERN KY IN WAKE OF A BAROCLINIC LEAF
   FORMATION ACROSS THE SERN U.S. THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA. AN AREA OF
   MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH EMBEDDED PATCHY MODERATE SNOW PERSISTS FROM
   NERN TN...WRN NC INTO WV AND SWRN VA. THE MID DRY SLOT MAY
   TEMPORARILY LIMIT DENDRITIC GROWTH AND OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES EARLY
   THIS MORNING AS IT SPREADS NEWD. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
   TO INTENSIFY INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED EXIT
   REGION OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
   WITH INTENSIFYING UPPER JET MAY ENHANCE LIFT AND SNOWFALL RATES
   WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN KY THROUGH SRN WV AND
   WRN AND NRN VA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH RATES UP
   TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 02/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...
   
   39127745 38137761 37147982 36058217 36038380 36668462
   37478439 38638251 39387933

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1214 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/WV/NRN AND WRN VA/WRN AND CNTRL MD/SRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 111814Z - 112315Z
   
   ...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATER TODAY AS
   BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW REDEVELOP EWD FROM THE APPALACHIANS...
   
   LATEST SATELLITE/WV LOOPS INDICATE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING SWD INTO
   SW MO...WITH A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING FROM SW VA INTO CNTRL GA. AT
   LOWER LEVELS...SFC LOW IS DEEPENING NEAR AUGUSTA GA WHERE MODEST
   PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING. MAIN QUESTION FOR THE AFTN WILL BE IF
   NEW HEAVY SNOW BAND DEVELOPS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OR IF BAND
   NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN KY/WV WILL JUST PIVOT EWD WITH TIME. IT
   APPEARS THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTN
   INTO EVENING...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
   FRONTOGENESIS BECOMES MORE INTENSE FROM THE WV PANHANDLE E TO SRN
   NJ.
   
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HEAVIEST SNOW RATES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
   ERN KY/WV WHERE STRONGEST LIFT IS OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
   SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
   APPALACHIAN MTNS WILL LIKELY FAVOR MODERATE SNOW RATES THIS AFTN.
   FARTHER EAST...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL VA AND THEN NWD
   THROUGH THE WRN SUBURBS OF DC. EAST OF THIS LINE...FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SNOW/RAIN
   MIX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...STRONG DYNAMICS AND
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
   THE REGION...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF DC LATER THIS AFTN INTO
   EVENING.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...
   
   36318218 37498354 39348051 39877854 39987758 40147611
   39797576 39087726 36907886 36607984

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0137
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0656 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA/DELMARVA THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 120056Z - 120700Z
   
   ...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING THIS EVENING AS
   MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWS SHIFT NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS ERN NC...WITH
   SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING INITIAL BAROCLINIC LEAF NOW EXTENDING
   WELL OFFSHORE. THE MOST INTENSE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL A FEW
   HOURS AWAY GIVEN THAT THE MAIN UPPER CENTER IS NEAR PAH. NEXT
   BAROCLINIC LEAF IS NOW FORMING FROM SE PA/NRN MD/NJ...AHEAD OF
   DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS LIKELY WHERE
   THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL HAS AN ELY COMPONENT AS NOTED ON 00Z WAL
   /WALLOPS ISLAND VA/ SOUNDING. PTYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW
   MIX ACROSS SRN DE/ERN SHORE OF MD...WHERE SFC WET BULB TEMPS ARE
   STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOCATIONS HAVE
   CHANGED OVER TO SNOW FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...AND ACCUMULATING SNOWS
   WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FROM NEAR DULLES TO PHILADELPHIA...ESPECIALLY
   ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON TO TRENTON. STRONG
   FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER /850-650MB/ WILL
   SUPPORT HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW...WITH HOURLY SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2
   INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
   
   39177491 38047727 38927863 39827802 42137352 42117211
   41467094 40717264

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0138
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA...SE PA/NJ INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 120651Z - 121145Z
   
   MODERATE AND HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE
   I-95 CORRIDOR FROM FAR NE VA/CNTRL MD THROUGH SE PA/NRN NJ AND SE NY
   OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW INTENSIFYING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL
   RATES OF 1 TO 2 IN PER HR WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCAL
   RATES UP TO 3 IN PER HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
   DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 3O TO 40
   MPH AND MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL.
   
   CLASSIC NOREASTER WILL TAKE SHAPE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
   DEEPENS OFF THE MD/VA COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. INTENSE LOW AND
   MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT FROM THE DELMARVA
   NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD. STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM 700
   TO 600 MB AROUND 100 MILES TO THE NW FROM IAD TO PTW TO HPN WILL
   RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. BANDED
   PRECIP HAS TAKEN SHAPE IN THIS DEFORMATION AREA AND WILL SLOWLY
   SHIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL
   RESULT IN A FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 3
   IN PER HR...AS EVIDENCED BY RECENT THUNDERSNOW IN THE PHL METAR AND
   NLDN LIGHTNING STRIKES.
   
   CLOSER TO THE COAST...RUC AND NAM 850 MB PROGS STRENGTHEN THE
   LOW-LEVEL COLD CONVEYOR BELT WITH 55 TO 65 KT NE WINDS BY 12Z. THIS
   STRENGTHENING IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE DOX AND DIX VAD PROFILERS.
   SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND A
   TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
   ARE LIKELY. COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
   SNOWFALL...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS
   12Z.
   
   ..GRAMS/GUYER.. 02/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
   
   39347757 40427679 41337525 42087400 42587277 42607135
   41687002 41347080 41277167 40917252 40537394 39727457
   39117548 38797598 38647635 38467741

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0139
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0528 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD...NJ...SERN PA...CT...RI...MA...SRN
   VT...SRN NH...ERN ME
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 121128Z - 121530Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR IS EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
   SPREADING NEWD INTO ERN ME. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE
   SW INCLUDING NRN VA...MD AND SRN NJ BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING A DEEP SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
   SRN NJ. THIS FEATURE HAD DEVELOPED ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
   WITHIN AREA OF ASCENT AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
   120+ KT MID LEVEL JET LIFTING NWD ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
   TROUGH. THE NWWD TRANSPORT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
   SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC
   FORCING ALONG DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC AREA
   NEWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. RADAR DATA SHOW WELL ORGANIZED BANDS
   OF HEAVY SNOW FROM NERN VA THROUGH MA. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 700
   MB-500 MB LAYER ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF
   SNOWFALL...AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW OCCASIONAL STRIKES ACROSS SERN
   PA...NJ...SERN NY AND CT. THE MID LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
   LOW WILL LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
   PERSISTING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SPREADING INTO ERN ME. THE
   STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE N OF THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 KT LIKELY.
   
   ..DIAL.. 02/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
   
   44896862 42897251 39937632 38457711 38187499 40577193
   42426917 439767587741

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0140
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1218 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ/SERN NY/CT/RI/MA/SERN NH/ERN ME
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 121818Z - 130015Z
   
   VERY HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL
   PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING
   SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES
   SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SNOWFALL WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS COASTAL MAINE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS POWERFUL NOREASTER TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF
   MAINE.
   
   AT 18Z...985MB SFC LOW APPEARS TO BE PASSING BETWEEN ACK AND BUOY
   44008 WITH WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
   SATELLITE LOOP SOUTH OF BID. GIVEN SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS
   AND INTENSE JET DYNAMICS...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
   WITH PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3MB PER HOUR IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
   
   BAND OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL /2-3 INCHES PER HOUR/ HAS DRIFTED EAST
   FROM NRN NJ/NYC/SWRN CT REGION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND WAS NOW
   SITUATED FROM LONG ISLAND NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MA AND SERN NH.
   ADDITIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WERE FORMING WITHIN ZONE OF
   PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX NW OF THE CYCLONE
   CENTER...FROM ERN MA TO THE COAST OF MAINE. VERY STRONG MESOSCALE
   ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO THE NW OF THE CYCLONE TRACK...WHILE FORCING
   TO SUSTAIN BANDED PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY WANES IN THE WAKE OF THE
   LOW. DEEP LAYER ASCENT FROM ERN MA/SRN NH TO SRN MAINE WILL OCCUR
   WITHIN AN IDEAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED HEAVY SNOW
   PRODUCTION. FURTHERMORE...WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLD
   LIGHTNING/THUNDER IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
   GUSTING TO NEAR 50KT WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
   SNOW...ALONG WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.
   
   ..TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 02/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...
   
   45766783 42447305 40647429 39967279 41577009 44866655
   45666745

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/WRN NE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 160038Z - 160545Z
   
   ONGOING SNOW OCCURRING OVER SERN WY WILL PERSIST AND EXPAND EWD INTO
   WRN NE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR
   ARE EXPECTED AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
   MPH.
   
   SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS OVER ERN UT INTO SRN WY
   INDICATIVE OF SHORTWAVE EJECTING EWD FROM LARGE UPPER TROUGH
   POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SFC LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER
   WRN CO AT 23 UTC WAS RESULTING IN STRONG NELY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE
   NE PANHANDLE INTO SERN WY. CONTINUATION OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND
   ADVANCING MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING SNOW
   COVERAGE THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH PER
   HOUR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06 UTC.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 02/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...
   
   42020641 42380549 42540473 42310360 41960295 41400268
   40740326 40940497 41070610 41180642

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0142
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0640 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB AND EXTREME SERN SD
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 160040Z - 160645Z
   
   PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL NEB NEWD INTO EXTREME SERN SD WILL LIKELY
   EXPERIENCE LOCAL HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGH 06Z.
   THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL EXIST IN A
   CORRIDOR 30-40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A 40SE KAIA-KONL-35E KYKN LINE.
   
   A PERSISTENT MESOSCALE BAND OF 25-35DBZ SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING
   ACROSS NRN NEB LATE THIS AFTN...ALONG/N OF AN E-W ORIENTED H85-H7
   FRONT. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY EARLIER THAN 18Z MODEL SUITES
   SUGGESTED.  RECENT TRENDS IN PROFILERS/VWPS DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
   H85 FLOW WAS BEGINNING TO BACK AND ACCELERATE ACROSS KS...PROBABLY
   IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER CO.  THIS PROCESS SHOULD
   CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE RESULTANT STRENGTHENING
   FRONTOGENESIS CONTRIBUTING TO MESOSCALE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS
   NRN NEB AND...EVENTUALLY...EXTREME SERN SD.  MEANWHILE...THE STRONG
   UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE FLOW...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAVIER
   SNOWFALL DEVELOPING SWWD ACROSS WRN NEB INTO THE PNHDL /SEE MCD
   #141/. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL SUITE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED TOO FAR N
   OVER SRN/CNTRL SD WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT TRENDS.
   
   STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND PRESENCE OF 1-2 G/KG OF MEAN LAYER
   MIXING RATIO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
   SNOWFALL...PARTICULARLY WHERE THERE IS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT ACROSS
   WRN/NCNTRL NEB.  SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR
   THROUGH 06Z.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
   
   42379664 41679921 41090070 40930193 41370246 41990255
   42390227 42700097 43149821 43359670

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0645 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 160045Z - 160645Z
   
   A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR IS
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 03 UTC AND 06 UTC.
   
   VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES
   ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR IN EMBEDDED BANDS/CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS ORIENTED EAST-TO-WEST IN THE VICINITY OF STRONG LOW/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THIS FORCING IS WELL DEPICTED
   BY THE 18 UTC NAM IN THE 800 TO 700 MB LAYER...WITH WEAK UPRIGHT
   CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE ABOUT 50 J/KG/ REACHING AS FAR NORTH
   AS NRN IL BY 03 UTC. FARTHER NORTH...NAM SHOWED SLANTWISE
   INSTABILITY POTENTIAL FROM NRN IL THROUGH SRN WI.
   
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH
   OF SRN WI THIS EVENING...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AND
   SLANTWISE INSTABILITY PRODUCING BANDS OF EMBEDDED HEAVY SNOW WITH
   RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. FORCING FOR HEAVY SNOW SHIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD
   AFTER 06 UTC.
   
   00 UTC SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY AT OR BELOW 32F WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. WET BULB COOLING LEAVES LITTLE
   DOUBT THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL OCCUR AS SNOW.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 02/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...
   
   43658978 43858872 43448772 42768823 42708984 43009029

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0144
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1040 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL MI
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 160440Z - 160945Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
   OVER THE NRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MIX OF FREEZING
   RAIN/SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OVER CENTRAL
   MI THROUGH 10Z...ALONG AND ROUGHLY 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE I-96
   CORRIDOR.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE WET-BULB FREEZING LINE
   EXTENDING FROM NEAR GRAND RAPIDS TO NEAR FLINT. NEAR SURFACE CAA
   SUPPORTED BY WEAK PRESSURE RISES WILL OFFSET STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA
   AND PRECIP DEVELOPMENT TO ALLOW THIS AXIS TO REMAIN NEARLY
   STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STRONG WAA WILL RESULT
   IN AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER MOVING SLOWLY NWD INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI
   THUS A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND LESS THAN
   50 MILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE. MEANWHILE...THE
   STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL TRANSLATE FROM
   ECENTRAL WI INTO NRN LOWER MI THROUGH 10Z. SEVERAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
   SNOWBANDS WILL RESULT IN THIS AREA WITH HRLY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1
   INCH FOR A 1-3 HR PERIOD.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 02/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
   45468411 44938645 44008685 43048675 42608625 42768507
   42928363 43358269 43778257 44908321 45268337

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0145
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...IA...EXTREME NRN MO...SERN MN...SRN THROUGH N CNTRL
   WI AND NRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET
   
   VALID 161116Z - 161615Z
   
   SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM CNTRL
   AND NRN IA THROUGH SERN MN AND MUCH OF SRN AND CNTRL WI. RATES MAY
   INCREASE TO LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. PRECIPITATION MAY
   REMAIN MOSTLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM SRN IA...NRN MO AND NRN
   IL.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING A FRONT DEMARCATING THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
   AIR EXTENDS FROM NRN IND SWWD THROUGH CNTRL MO AND INTO NWRN OK. A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MID LEVEL JET WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH
   THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG SLY
   LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT ENEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING
   TO NWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
   THE INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING... ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT RESULTING FROM THESE PROCESSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BANDS OF
   HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING FROM IA NEWD THROUGH WI THIS MORNING AND INTO
   THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES APPEAR STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
   CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM IA THROUGH S
   CNTRL WI. RECENT LIGHTNING DATA ARE ALREADY SHOWING A FEW STRIKES
   ACROSS SERN IA. FARTHER S FROM SRN IA...NRN MO AND NRN IL...SLEET
   AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MORE LIKELY AS WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTRIBUTES TO AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER ABOVE
   THE SURFACE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 02/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...
   
   44518764 42698829 40749111 39739431 41559591 43349563
   44849233 45388889

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN WI/CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI/SRN AND
ERN UPPER MI

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION



VALID 161606Z - 162200Z

WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WI...AND WILL
SPREAD NEWD ACROSS MI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1"/HR ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN WI AND INTO NRN LOWER
MI AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN AND ERN UPPER MI. FURTHER S ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MI...LOW-LEVEL WARMING SPREADING NWD WILL YIELD A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN WITH TIME.

A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION -- WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE SRN FRINGE -- CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY / UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN IL...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS
NRN IN/NWRN OH AND ACROSS LK ERIE.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH RAIN SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED
ATTM ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF MI COUNTIES AND WWD INTO THE
CHICAGO/MILWAUKEE AREAS. PRECIPITATION N OF THIS RAIN AREA --
ACROSS CENTRAL WI -- IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH 1"/HR RATES
LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN HEAVIER BANDS. WITH TIME...HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING ENEWD INTO SRN AND ERN UPPER MI/CENTRAL AND NRN
LOWER MI. HOWEVER...AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW...SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THE 900 TO 800 MB
LAYER...RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER IN PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH TIME
ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID
AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF
LOWER MI...WITH FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD AND MAINLY
SNOW OVER THE NRN THIRD AS WELL AS ACROSS ERN UPPER MI.

THOUGH HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NRN MI WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT WINTER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY HEAVY
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO ACCUMULATE -- PARTICULARLY WITH HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 171843Z - 172345Z



SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS IN LAKE-EFFECT BANDS ALONG THE CNTRL AND ERN UPPER
PENINSULA OF MI. RATES WILL LIKELY REACH 1 IN/HR WITH LOCAL RATES
POSSIBLY UP TO 2 IN/HR TOWARDS EVENING.

ONGOING MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE-INDUCED SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO
FOCUS LATER TODAY WITH MORE ORGANIZED BANDING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HELP STRENGTHEN MID-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR. BOTH
RUC/NAM INDICATE THE 700 TO 600 MB MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC
LIFT ZONE TO SHIFT ESE FROM THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO THE ERN UPPER
PENINSULA BY 00Z.

CURRENT MESOANALYSIS/VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALONG SRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A WEAK MESOLOW
JUST E OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. RUC/NAM INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY
SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME AND INCREASING CURVATURE IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NW
PROVIDING GREATER FETCH ALONG THE SRN LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. EVEN
THOUGH DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL DUE TO THE VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIRMASS...HIGH SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW ESPECIALLY FROM NRN MARQUETTE TO
CHIPPEWA COUNTIES.

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0913 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECNTRL OK...NRN/CNTRL AR...EXTREME SRN
   MO...FAR W KY...WRN TN AND EXTREME NWRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 180313Z - 180915Z
   
   WINTER PCPN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ACROSS ERN OK...SRN MO AND
   NRN/CNTRL AR THROUGH 06Z...THEN FARTHER EWD INTO THE LWR OH
   VLY/MID-SOUTH BETWEEN 06-09Z. 
   
   WEAK H5 WAVE WAS ANALYZED OVER OK AT 00Z AND WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE
   EWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY LATER TONIGHT. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE WAVE THROUGH THE
   NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC
   LIFT. GPS PWAT VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS
   SRN AR/OK SINCE LATE AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING
   ASCENT...THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS THAT PCPN RATES WILL INCREASE
   SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH LATE EVENING.
   
   00Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM NOSE AROUND H85 AS FAR N AS
   CNTRL OK AND NRN AR THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE UPPER
   WAVE PASSES BY LATER TONIGHT.  00Z OBSERVATIONS ARE SOMEWHAT WARMER
   THAN RECENT RUC GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED.  GIVEN SOME COOLING OF THE
   COLUMN VIA WET BULB PROCESSES...A PHASE CHANGE FROM SLEET TO SNOW
   SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS EXTREME NERN OK...SRN MO AND EXTREME NRN AR
   THROUGH 06Z. HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 1 INCH FOR A 1-3
   HOUR PERIOD.
   
   TO THE SOUTH...THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD
   WITH TIME AS THE LOWER PART OF THE COLUMN MOISTENS.  THIS COMBINED
   WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 3 DEGREES C WITHIN THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL
   SUPPORT LIQUID RAIN MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SLEET. LOCALLY HEAVY
   SLEET COULD OCCUR ACROSS ECNTRL OK EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NRN
   AR.
   
   FARTHER S...00Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE OF AROUND
   6 DEGREES C JUST BELOW H7.  AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
   APPROACH 32 DEGREES F LATER TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
   RAIN SOUTH OF A KFSM-KBVX-NEAR KMEM LINE.  HOURLY RATES WILL BE
   0.05-0.10 INCH.
   
   PCPN WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD EAST OF THE MS RVR...ESPECIALLY AFTER
   06Z.  MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED N OF THE OH RVR...WITH SLEET ACROSS
   WRN TN N OF KMEM.  MAINLY FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED BY 12Z
   ACROSS NWRN MS AND WRN TN S OF KMEM.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   36219597 36719463 36779360 36779144 36769029 36808876
   36508818 36038816 35548855 34758972 34509094 34889279
   35089428 35409582

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0526 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR...NRN MS...NRN AL...TN...MO
   BOOT-HEEL...EXTREME NWRN GA...EXTREME SRN KY.
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 181126Z - 181715Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE DIRECTION
   
   MIX OF WINTER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS AR...SERN MO...SRN
   KY AND TN...WHILE SHIFTING/EXPANDING SWD INTO AREAS OF MS/AL/NWRN GA
   WHERE SFC TEMPS STILL WERE ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 1030Z. FREEZING
   RAIN WITH .05-.10 INCH/HR RATES SHOULD DEVELOP FROM N-CENTRAL MS EWD
   ACROSS NRN AL...EXTREME NWRN GA AND PORTIONS SERN TN AS FREEZING
   LINE SHIFTS SWD THROUGH THIS AREA...IN RESPONSE TO COMBINATION OF
   BOUNDARY LAYER CAA AND WET BULB COOLING FROM PRECIP EVAPORATION NEAR
   SFC. 
   
   PRECIP PHASE WILL GRADATE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX THEN TO SNOW
   WITH NWD EXTENT...WHILE LOW LEVEL COOLING DEEPENS AND SHIFTS SWD.
   THIS WILL LEAD TO ONGOING PLUME OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM
   W-CENTRAL AR TO MID TN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH TIME.  SNOW
   ACCUMULATIONS 1.5 INCH/HOUR SHOULD OCCUR IN MANY
   AREAS...LOCALLY/BRIEFLY EXCEEDING 2 INCH/HOUR IN HEAVIER BURSTS.
   MORE SPOTTY/LIGHT/INTERMITTENT PRECIP MIX IS EXPECTED WSWWD FROM
   THIS AREA ACROSS ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL TX.
   
   THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED WITHIN
   ELONGATED...WSW-ENE ORIENTED CONVEYOR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT AND WAA -- ATOP COOLING/POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
   MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 5-7 KFT DEEP SUPERFREEZING
   LAYER IN LOW-MIDLEVELS ATOP FCST FREEZING RAIN ZONE.  THIS LAYER
   WILL BECOME SHALLOWER AND MORE ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT WHERE SLEET
   IS FCST...THEN VANISH OVER FCST SNOW SWATH.  ELEVATED MUCAPES UNDER
   100 J/KG -- ROOTED NEAR 700 MB -- WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SERN AR TO
   NRN AL AND SWRN/MID TN.  THIS INDICATES OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS
   WILL LOCALLY BOOST PRECIP RATES FOR SHORT PERIODS.  LIFT WILL BE
   MAINTAINED IN ENVIRONMENT OF 700-750 MB FRONTOGENESIS...AXIS OF
   WHICH WILL SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS NRN MS/AL WITH TIME BEFORE WEAKENING
   AROUND MID-DAY.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...
   
   35699213 36089172 36488942 36668768 36838505 36018422
   35798391 35038467 34548568 33788783 33339036 34189194
   34769235 35239230

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX/NCNTRL TX/OK
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 190644Z - 191245Z
   
   WINTER PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND FREEZING
   DRIZZLE...WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS NW TX THROUGH NCNTRL TX AND OK.
   
   LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
   CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM WEST OF LUBBOCK TX TO NEAR MCALESTER OK.
   CLOSE EXAMINATION OF WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST POSSIBLE IMPULSES
   WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS NCNTRL NM WITH A STRONGER WAVE
   FROM BAJA INTO NRN SONORA. AT ANY RATE...COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN IR
   IMAGERY ARE INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION.
   
   THE GFS IS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL MODEL WHICH HAS PRECIPITATION
   BREAKING OUT OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...IT HAS SHOWN A CONSISTENT
   SIGNAL FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SUGGESTING WINTER PCPN FOR THIS
   TIME PERIOD AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. ITS 00Z QPF SOLN TONIGHT SUGGESTS
   THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE INITIALLY ACROSS NW TX...BEFORE
   SPREADING INTO CNTRL/SRN OK BETWEEN 09-12Z /ALTHOUGH LIGHT
   PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP BEFORE THAT TIME/.
   
   PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MAINLY BE A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
   OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. DRY AIR NOTED ABOVE 650 MB ON THE OUN SOUNDING
   WILL INHIBIT DENDRITIC PROCESSES FROM OCCURRING UNTIL ADDITIONAL
   MOISTENING OCCURS. FARTHER WEST ACROSS NW TX...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
   SUPPORTS MAINLY SNOW OR SLEET INITIALLY...WHICH AGREES WITH PTYPE
   ALGORITHMS FROM THE GFS/NAM. HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
   OVERNIGHT...PCPN MAY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/FZ
   RAIN ACROSS NW TX /LUBBOCK AREA/. ACROSS NCNTRL TX...PCPN WILL
   MAINLY BE FZRA/FZDZ DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION NOTED ON 00Z FWD
   SOUNDING ABOVE 850 MB.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   32159867 32960288 33630302 35310245 36199880 36109593
   35519459 32659463

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX/SRN AR/NRN LA/NRN MS/NRN AL/NW GA
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 200630Z - 201230Z
   
   ...FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS A
   LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF COAST STATES. OVERRUNNING PCPN ATOP ARCTIC
   AIRMASS PRESENTS IDEAL SETUP FOR PROLONGED FZRA EVENT...
   
   SUBTROPICAL MOIST CONVEYOR EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDS WEST
   TO BAJA. SUBTLE IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW ARE PROVIDING
   ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE VERTICAL MOTION FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN. IN
   ADDITION...850 MB EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS TIGHT FRONTAL
   ZONE ACROSS NE TX/NRN LA/NRN GA. STRONG 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET /AS
   OBSERVED BY AREA VWP DATA/ WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE OVER THE
   FRONT. SFC FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR LFK ACROSS CNTRL LA AND
   CNTRL MS JUST NORTH OF JAN INTO NRN AL AND EXTREME NW GA.
   
   EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM JAN AND SHV DEPICT A DEEP WARM LAYER CENTERED
   AROUND 850MB WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THIS STRONG
   INVERSION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO PCPN
   TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN GIVEN SUBFREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES. THE
   SRN EXTENT OF THE FZRA WILL LIKELY BE FROM JUST SOUTH OF FORT POLK
   LA TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF JACKSON MS TO BIRMINGHAM AL. SFC WET
   BULB TEMPS ARE AT OR NEAR FREEZING IN AREAS NORTH OF THIS LINE...SO
   EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL TO 32F.
   
   HOURLY PCPN RATES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...RANGING FROM AROUND
   0.01 TO 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR. HOWEVER...ICING PROBLEMS WILL OCCUR
   ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
   ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT PCPN WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHICH WILL
   ALLOW SOME ICE ACCUMULATION.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
   
   30979359 32409485 34349377 34879152 35068893 34878415
   33858433 32548842 31219240

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0639 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN AR...NRN LA...W-CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL
   MS...N-CENTRAL AL.
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 201239Z - 201815Z
   
   FREEZING MIST/DRIZZLE AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE VIRTUALLY
   ANYWHERE BETWEEN NWRN TX/SWRN OK REGION AND EXTREME NRN GA/SERN
   TN...HOWEVER GREATEST PROBABILITY OF CRITERIA RATES AT LEAST .05
   INCH/3-HOUR WILL REMAIN OVER SRN AR...NRN LA...N-CENTRAL MS AND
   N-CENTRAL AL BEFORE 18Z.
   
   12Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FREEZING LINE ROUGHLY ALONG CHA...15 N
   TCL...20 SSW CBM...50 NNE HEZ...POE...LFK.  OBSERVED AND MODIFIED
   12Z RAOBS FROM SHV-JAN...AS WELL AS FCST RUC SOUNDINGS OVER
   SUBFREEZING SFC LOCATIONS...SHOW DEEP SUPERFREEZING LAYER ABOVE
   SHALLOW NEAR-SFC ZONE OF MARGINALLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES.  FURTHER
   WET BULB COOLING OF SFC AIR IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN SATURATED BOUNDARY
   LAYER CONDITIONS.  IN FACT...DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HEAT BY LIQUID
   PRECIP...FROM WARMER LAYER ALOFT...SHOULD RESULT IN NWD DRIFT OF
   FREEZING LINE. SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT -- EMBEDDED
   WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL JET CORE -- WILL AID IN MAINTAINING ELONGATED
   CONVEYOR OF ASCENT THROUGH REMAINDER FORENOON HOURS...STRONGEST FROM
   NEAR MS RIVER EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AL.  THEREAFTER...RUC AND SREF
   PROGS INDICATE FORCING WILL WEAKEN...AND FREEZING LINE WILL DRIFT
   NWD MORE.  THIS WILL CAUSE A CHANGE TO COLD RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM
   S-N...WHEREVER PRECIP STILL LINGERS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
   
   32439054 31949149 31299261 31069313 31169329 31419349
   32589369 33219309 33389236 34228878 34598548 33718689
   33368831 32788976

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT/NRN AND CNTRL ND
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 240639Z - 241130Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR STATE IN DISCUSSION
   
   ...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
   BANDED SNOWFALL ORGANIZES OVERNIGHT FROM NERN MT THROUGH NRN ND.
   SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR ARE LIKELY...
   
   STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE FORECAST
   OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE
   NRN BITTERROOT MTNS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK FROM AROUND
   JDN TO BETWEEN DIK/BIS BY 12Z. RUC/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
   WITH INCREASING THE 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTH OF THIS
   LOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY FALL ALONG AND JUST
   NORTH OF A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION AXIS CENTERED AROUND 800 MB. THIS
   AXIS WILL MOST LIKELY RUN FROM SDY TO N60 TO BETWEEN DVL/JMS.
   ALTHOUGH 800-700 MB MOISTURE WAS LACKING IN 00Z RAP/BIS/ABR
   SOUNDINGS...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
   HELP SATURATE THE DENDRITIC LAYER DOWNSTREAM AS EVIDENCED BY
   REGIONAL RADAR AND RECENT SNOWFALL OBS IN BIS. BOTH RUC AND NAM
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER LARGE DENDRITIC LAYER EXCEEDING
   100 MB...ACROSS NERN ND TOWARDS 12Z. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
   MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW RATES AS THE SURFACE LOW/SHORTWAVE TRANSLATE
   EAST.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...
   
   48980691 49000225 49000225 48990007 48999729 46869773
   46910153 47400696