(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Latest NWS weekend forecast for North Houston:

Friday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high around 60. North wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 46. North wind around 10 mph.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. North wind around 10 mph.

Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 53.

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.

The NWS is down to a high of 50F on Saturday...yesterday the forecast was 56F. Definite trend cooler.

Well, the NWS has downgraded the temps to 50 -55 in the Corpus area for Saturday which is down from the low 60's forecasts of yesterday. The AFD this AM said if the front sinks further south, we might stay in the 40's. I think we will be in the 40's on Saturday if the DFW metroplex is having an icing event (basing this on prior events). I can't see the colder air just stopping at I-10 .

[Portastorm]

I guess the Austin/San Antonio NWS guys are going for the colder guidance temps as of now, we are supposed to stay in the 40s most of the weekend with 40-50% POPs.

Cold and raw for sure!

As for me, if wintry weather is going to happen, I'd rather have sleet or snow. I'm happy the freezing rain will stay north of us!

[jasons2k]

After being in the 20's and 30's in NYC last week, when we got off the plane it was in the 40's and we actually took our jackets off - it felt warm

I think there is a good chance spring has officially arrived for the Houston area. It doesn't look like we're going to have any more freezes (I hope), but I'm not quite 100% ready to say "winter = cancel" just yet...

[Portastorm]

After being in the 20's and 30's in NYC last week, when we got off the plane it was in the 40's and we actually took our jackets off - it felt warm

I think there is a good chance spring has officially arrived for the Houston area. It doesn't look like we're going to have any more freezes (I hope), but I'm not quite 100% ready to say "winter = cancel" just yet...

Funny you should mention this ... I was thinking the same thing for our area. We may dip below freezing a few times but I don't see any "winter weather" events occuring until next year. Or maybe I should say December 2006.

I was also thinking it has been several years since my area of Texas has had a bad severe storm season in spring. But maybe I should save that for the USA Weather forum.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

After being in the 20's and 30's in NYC last week, when we got off the plane it was in the 40's and we actually took our jackets off - it felt warm

I think there is a good chance spring has officially arrived for the Houston area. It doesn't look like we're going to have any more freezes (I hope), but I'm not quite 100% ready to say "winter = cancel" just yet...

Just because we don't have any freezes in the pipe doesn't mean winter is canceled. In fact I would take a whole week of temps in the 40's and 50's with damp conditions right now because of this ridiculous drought. I'd call this winter semi successful if we could get an event like that right now. It's been a few winters since we've had some of those type of events down here, but I recall winters where we had quite a few of them.

We are at 7% of our normal rain fall this year and that reading is at the CC Airport. And are last rain fall of an inch or more goes back to early November. At my house we are .5% and that is because of the morning dew. That's a joke, people.

[Air Force Met]

After being in the 20's and 30's in NYC last week, when we got off the plane it was in the 40's and we actually took our jackets off - it felt warm

I think there is a good chance spring has officially arrived for the Houston area. It doesn't look like we're going to have any more freezes (I hope), but I'm not quite 100% ready to say "winter = cancel" just yet...

I hope we are done with freezes. I rounded up my lawn last fall and have now dethatched it...and am ready to get some hybrid seeds planted so I can have a lush green lawn again.

[richtrav]

Oh winter is definitely over in South Texas. At least according to the vegetation it is. I've even seen some mesquites budding out, and they are usually quite trigger shy about leafing out too early. It was incredibly warm and humid last night, moreso than any night in January.

[aggiecutter]

AFM, you're a professional met and I'm not, but looking at the current temps in canada and what is now entering the northern plains, I think this air mass is going to go whereever it wants---kinda of like the 800 gorilla. Those temps entering the lower 48 are very, very cold. There are some -40 temps in southern canada right now.

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

[gboudx]

Amarillo dropped from 42 to 26 between 7:53 and 8:53 this morning. Wow!

[Portastorm]

AFM, you're a professional met and I'm not, but looking at the current temps in canada and what is now entering the northern plains, I think this air mass is going to go whereever it wants---kinda of like the 800 gorilla. Those temps entering the lower 48 are very, very cold. There are some -40 temps in southern canada right now.

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

Actually, the temperature gradient shown on your maps looks close to what the GFS is progging. The GFS takes a sharp "finger" of cold into Texas from the Panhandles down to near Midland-Odessa. The rest of the state remains warmer ... probably due to the screaming jet that won't allow much colder air deeper into the state.

[Portastorm]

Hmmmm... this from Houston NWS from its mid-morning update. Are they thinking even colder?

BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
LOOKS VERY COLD AND WET WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE
30S UP NORTH AND IN THE 40S CENTRAL AND COAST. MORE ON THIS RETURN OF
WINTER IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. 42/35

[Johnny]

Well we cancelled our trip to Wimberley in the Hill Country. We were going to leave today but after looking at their forecast (high of 47 tomorrow, high of 41 on Saturday, high of 45 on Sunday with rain) it sounds like we would be stuck in the cabin for most of the trip. Temperatures definately trended downward overnight.

[Portastorm]

Well we cancelled our trip to Wimberley in the Hill Country. We were going to leave today but after looking at their forecast (high of 47 tomorrow, high of 41 on Saturday, high of 45 on Sunday with rain) it sounds like we would be stuck in the cabin for most of the trip. Temperatures definately trended downward overnight.

Hey Johnny, don't feel too bad. My wife, kids and I planned a weekend at Chain of Lakes (NE of Houston) for this weekend but cancelled for the same reason.

Not much fun fishing with kids in that kind of weather or trying to ride horses or hike.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, you're a professional met and I'm not, but looking at the current temps in canada and what is now entering the northern plains, I think this air mass is going to go whereever it wants---kinda of like the 800 gorilla. Those temps entering the lower 48 are very, very cold. There are some -40 temps in southern canada right now.

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

That's not the way it works. We will be very close to the forecasted highs (at least the ones they have finally come on board with). This airmass will not go wherever it wants. I laid out the reasons for why it won't several pages back on why it won't overwhelm the pattern. It will ooze down here and the models now have a good handle on it. You aren't going to see temp busts of 20 degrees because it sinks south of the flow. The bulk of the cold air will get shunted east.

And here's another reason it will modify: When you have 70 kt flow over the rockies at 500mb...you tend to set up diabatic warming and leeside troughing. Now...with a high moving down you won't get the trough but you will weaken it and you will modify the air even further. Top it off with the fact the airmass is shallow and the winds overrunning it are fairly strong and you will get some mixing down to the sfc...which will also modify it. Which means you get the coldest temps moving east.

So...bottom line...the cold goes where the high goes. The 800 lb gorilla will not be located over n tx and OK despite what the models show...it will be shunted east into central and eastern plains like the models are calling for it to...as will the bulk of the cold air. Some of it will filter in...but once it hits that flow...the bulk is going east.

[Air Force Met]

Hmmmm... this from Houston NWS from its mid-morning update. Are they thinking even colder?

BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
LOOKS VERY COLD AND WET WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE
30S UP NORTH AND IN THE 40S CENTRAL AND COAST. MORE ON THIS RETURN OF
WINTER IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. 42/35

Remember when they say "NORTH," they are talking about the northern part of their area of responsibility...which goes all the way up to Houston county....east of CLL....not north Houston. BUt again...it's good to see them in the low 50's...which is where I thought we would be if we had some overrunning set up (mostly thick clouds with some rain). If we don't get as much and it's just mostly cloudy...we'll be in the mid 50's for the metro area. Lows in the low 40s look about right for metro Houston. Lows in the upper 30's for areas inthe northern zones looks good.

BUt...I still don't think of a 40% chance of rain as "wet." To me...I would call it cool and damp...not cold and wet. Cold and wet during the winter is highs in the 40's and 60%+....

but that's just me.

[Johnny]

Well AFM, I've been waiting for you to be wrong somewhere with this cold air this winter but so far you have been 100% right (unless I missed something) and that can't be ignored. I'm sure a few people here are wanting you to be wrong with this latest surge of cold/cool air but with your record so far, I sure wouldn't bet against you.

It's just about time for the blackberry bushes to start blooming. When I see the first bloom then I'm writing winter off for good. It'll happen any day.

[Air Force Met]

Well AFM, I've been waiting for you to be wrong somewhere with this cold air this winter but so far you have been 100% right (unless I missed something) and that can't be ignored. I'm sure a few people here are wanting you to be wrong with this latest surge of cold/cool air but with your record so far, I sure wouldn't bet against you.

It's just about time for the blackberry bushes to start blooming. When I see the first bloom then I'm writing winter off for good. It'll happen any day.

Thanks. The one thing I did believe would happen was that the pacific jet would level off more than it did and the ridge in AK would be stronger.

Mmmmmmm. Blackberries. Nothing like a good blackberry cobbler with some BlueBell ice cream sittin' next to it (all nice and melted).

Now I'm hungry.

[deltadog03]

12z guidance for both the GFS and NAM are trending colder again. Now, if the gfs is right. there will be .50-.75" per the 12z mos and operational run. I would think there might be a winter storm watch here for northern TX issued in the aft package.

[aggiecutter]

AFM, I'm not saying the center of the high will come down into Texas. What I'm saying is that the amount of cold air, true arctic air, will be quite a bit more significant than is what currently being forcasted. As a matter of fact, most of the weather offices across Texas and Northern Louisiana are already starting to back peddle on their temp forcast. The mets. in shreveport, who were calling for highs in the upper 40's for this weekend, backed off to the lower and mid 30's on their 11:30 newscast,Channel 3 out of Shreveport, and are now calling for a significant icing event downthere.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, I'm not saying the center of the high will come down into Texas. What I'm saying is that the amount of cold air, true arctic air, will be quite a bit more significant than is what currently being forcasted. As a matter of fact, most of the weather offices across Texas and Northern Louisiana are already starting to back peddle on their temp forcast. The mets. in shreveport, who were calling for highs in the upper 40's for this weekend, backed off to the lower and mid 30's on their 11:30 newscast,Channel 3 out of Shreveport, and are now calling for a significant icing event downthere.

I have never disagreed with that. Someone asked me about DFW a yesterday (or the day before) and I said that the ice line was TX/OK border...but that overnight hours DFW could see some ice and that I though daytime would be above freezing. Someone else (on a PM) asked me about NE LA/SE AR and I also said yes to ice.

You've never heard me say it's saying north of OKC...just the snow line is. DFW to SHV for ice/ Yep....especially at night. Not during the day.