southern plains freezing rain/sleet thread

[cheezyWXguy]

can we have any pre met takes on this?

[gboudx]

Sorry cheezy, I don't have enough meteorological experience to even speculate on the questions you asked. I don't know all the variables and parameters involved that could point into one direction or another.

[cheezyWXguy]

I had a feeling, gboudx. Its the same 4 me... thats y i asked for a pro met take

[gboudx]

Unfortunately for us NTXers, there are no pro-mets in our area that post regularly. Every now and then Air Force Met may throw us a bone if asked, but it's not worth bothering him over this. Our local TV mets and the NWS have a handle on it.

[cheezyWXguy]

ok... good point gboudx

[aggiecutter]

Here's what happened in December of 2000(Christmas Day) in the mid-south region. It was the most devastating ice storm that I've ever seen in this part of the country. The weather setup for this weekend is eerily similiar...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/ChristmasIceStorm.htm

[cheezyWXguy]

uh oh...lol. How much ice did dallas get out fo that system?

[aggiecutter]

All Dallas got was a cold rain. I went and stayed in Dallas for a week because I didn't have any power at my house. Once I got past Mt. PLeasant, there wasn't any ice to speak of. Everyone west of there got a cold rain. Ironically, when I got to Dallas the next morning after the ice storm, there was a picture of the devastation in Texarkana on the front page of the DMN. The headline of the Dallas Morning News front page read"Texarkana: A Town in the Dark." This was a national weather story as it affected a large area of the mid-south.

[aggiecutter]

Here's an article from the Texarkana Gazette about the ice storm and a quote from Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee when he visited Texarkana.

"This is the worst natural disaster that we've ever seen in the state," Huckabee said to a group made up of local, state and national officials. "It's almost like an apocalyptic disaster. We have nothing to compare this to. It's like what would happen in a war."

The link...
http://www.texarkanagazette.com/article ... t27271.txt

Reading this article reminded me of how have bad things were. The utility infrastructure of Texarkana had to be rebuilt.

[aggiecutter]

I just watched the local weather and the local mets. out of shreveport are predicting a significant icing event this weekend for NE Texas, SE Oklahoma and Southern Arkansas. I hope it's not a repeat of Dec. 2000.

[CaptinCrunch]

DFW AREA FORECAST FOR 2/17 THRU 2/19

Friday Night: A chance of rain or freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low near 32. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday: A chance of rain or freezing rain before 10am, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high around 34. Northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: A chance of rain, mixing with freezing rain after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday: A chance of rain or freezing rain before 9am, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high around 38. East northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%


We'll see what happens??

[gboudx]

Yeah CC, this still seems like it could go either way(wintry precip or all rain). But with the models showing the 32 line dipping further south, it looks more ominous for us. I really hate the ice. Maybe it can drop far enough south for us to get sleet and snow instead?

[CaptinCrunch]

Yeah CC, this still seems like it could go either way(wintry precip or all rain). But with the models showing the 32 line dipping further south, it looks more ominous for us. I really hate the ice. Maybe it can drop far enough south for us to get sleet and snow instead?

I have been pretty quite about any winter wx events for our area because I have'nt seen anything to get excited about, even last weekends cooler temps wasn't anything to cheer about. (I did get to use my fireplace )

Now I'm not going out on limb on this one either, but it does have all the right ingredients to creat a BIG icing event for much of NTX. (THE AREA OF CONCERN IS GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE...GLEN ROSE...DALLAS-FORT WORTH...MCKINNEY...PARIS LINE) this does include the DFW area. I think you will see local met's drop temps a few more degrees for highs as well as lows and toss in the icing event for much of the DFW area and as far south as Waco by Friday morning.

All i can say is bring it on, I still got plenty of wood to burn!!

[aggiecutter]

The models and the local mets. are grossly underestimating the strength of this air mass. A look at the current temps across southern canada and the northern plains speaks for itself, and you can tell from the trajectory of the air that it is heading south.

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

[plainsman]

you guys this air is much colder then expected... currently it is 26 degrees at amarillo!! and in lubbock like 2 hours south... it is 68 degrees!!!!!! thats a 42 degree temperature difference in 2 maybe 3 hours!!! lol thats a blue norther for ya! DFW is considering putting up a winter storm watch later today since there saying air is coming colder then expected and wintry precipitaion/freezing rain chances have gone up according to the latest model runs.. the nws said theyll wait and see till this afternoon or tomorrow before they put the winter storm watch up.. they havn't decided yet... its looking more colder and more wintry in DFW now say then yesterday or the days before!

[gboudx]

Update from DFW NWS. Still looking worse Red River area, but more interesting into the metroplex.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1055 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006

.UPDATE...
ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THRU OKLAHOMA WITH VERY COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. STILL EXPECTING FROPA AROUND 02Z TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
QUITE STRONG...AND FELT THAT A WIND ADVISORY NEEDED TO BE ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THRU 00Z. NEW MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING COLDER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT TOMORROW AND THIS
WEEKEND. A WINTER WEATHER WATCH MAY NEEDED FOR AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS
ALONG THE RED RIVER. IT APPEARS THE METRO AREA WILL GET FREEZING
RAIN AND MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE SLEET...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY
BELOW WATCH CRITERIA.

[deltadog03]

well, 12z gfs mos says a SIG icing event is possible

[aggiecutter]

Just watched the 11:30 news from shreveport. They are even expecting a significant icing event as far south as shreveport. They are forcasting highs there to be in the low 30's on saturday and sunday. That is based on the latest information that they have. I think the writing is now on the wall that this is going to be a significant winter weather event deep into the south.

[Portastorm]

I guess we all know that things could change quickly and that this would be a rapidly developing situation ... at least in north Texas, right?

Good luck to y'all up there ... and here;s hoping you can enjoy a taste of winter without experiencing too much of the bad stuff (power outages, trees down, etc.).

[plainsman]

if temps wont get out or the low 30s in shreveport then that could mean upper 20s for DFW .. Dallas/Fort worth is always a couple degrees colder then shreveport with these stronger blue norther fronts.. its looking better and better... accuweather now has DFW with lows in the 20s with freezing precip fri night so .. well see this afternoon and tomorrow on on how things change with the forecasts...