What is you favroite Computer model (as in accuracy)

[Jim Cantore]

Opinion question

[JonathanBelles]

along with thi poll will you list all of the sites where i can find these models

[Jim Cantore]

I cant get all of them but I'll get as many as I have

[Jim Cantore]

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[JonathanBelles]

ok and what r ur most trusted models? as u can tell im new in the tropical department

[ROCK]

I voted for the A98E.....great model for the deep tropics....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

GFDL pretty good several days out

[Scorpion]

GFDL. It was almost spot on with Katrina, predicted a Cat 5 Rita, and predicted a sub 900 mb Wilma 5 days before it happened.

[hookemfins]

GFDL was also the only for the SW movement through Dade County, FLbut a tad off on the strength as a cat 3. GFDL is good for the track but tends to overdevelop storms.

[wxmann_91]

For what? Tropics alone?

For general, GFS is actually pretty good long-range, ECMWF outperforms all in the medium-range, and for the short-range, the NAM/GFS are both pretty good.

For tropical, UKMET, GFDL, and FSSE outperform the rest.

BTW Floyd, you do not have the ECMWF on the poll. And what do you mean by "FSU"? FSU Superensemble (FSSE) or FSUMM5?

[wxmann_91]

I voted for the A98E.....great model for the deep tropics....

Did you seriously? I do see one vote for it...

[HURAKAN]

SURPRISINGLY TO EVERYONE, IN 2005 GFDL DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB. GOOD ENOUGH TO GET THE ATTENTION MANY TIMES FROM THE NHC'S FORECASTERS.

[HURAKAN]

I voted for the A98E.....great model for the deep tropics....

Did you seriously? I do see one vote for it...

I think you clicked in the wrong link, for the least accurate computer models go to the next link!

[Jim Cantore]

For what? Tropics alone?

For general, GFS is actually pretty good long-range, ECMWF outperforms all in the medium-range, and for the short-range, the NAM/GFS are both pretty good.

For tropical, UKMET, GFDL, and FSSE outperform the rest.

BTW Floyd, you do not have the ECMWF on the poll. And what do you mean by "FSU"? FSU Superensemble (FSSE) or FSUMM5?

MM5

[MiamiensisWx]

I'd have to say the GFDL. It has performed quite well!

[wxmann_91]

SURPRISINGLY TO EVERYONE, IN 2005 GFDL DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB. GOOD ENOUGH TO GET THE ATTENTION MANY TIMES FROM THE NHC'S FORECASTERS.

One thing you can do is compare the GFDL to JB. (This will not be my opinion of JB, but since youall bash him so much, it will be what so many perceive him as.) Great at pattern recognition, but the one weakness - way too easily swayed into the extremes. It just so happened that in 2005 all the storms did turn extreme. Wait till a normal year and see what happens. The GFDL will crash and burn. However, it could have had some new equations inputed so maybe I am wrong. But I would wait a few seasons before judging it. Though IMO just from this year's preformance its good pattern recognition skills earn it a high grade.

[MiamiensisWx]

Excellent points, wxmann_91. It easily relates to the phrase about the little girl...

"When she was good, she was very, very good. When she was bad, she was horrid!"

Not bashing any model or anyone... just making wxmann_91's observation.

[wxman22]

1. GFDL

2. GFS

3. UKMET

[ROCK]

I voted for the A98E.....great model for the deep tropics....

Did you seriously? I do see one vote for it...

Can't let the all reliable A98E not get a vote...I love how it smashes low lat storms into South America and it almost always does this cute little zig zag....

seriously I would go with the GFDL...the MM5 is right up there with 98E IMO.....

[thunderchief]

the GFDL is a dedicated hurricane model so the answer is obvious.

btw when is the new WRF hurricane run going to enter operation?