(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[Portastorm]

Nice to see you back in form, AFM!

What is your take on the ice/rain line across Texas? Where would you draw it for this weekend's event?

[Air Force Met]

Nice to see you back in form, AFM!

What is your take on the ice/rain line across Texas? Where would you draw it for this weekend's event?

Hard to say right now...my thinking is around the red river....perhaps as much as 60 miles to the south. During the overnight times the DFW area will probably see some freezing precip but daytime temps should move above freezing.

[gboudx]

Nice to see you back in form, AFM!

What is your take on the ice/rain line across Texas? Where would you draw it for this weekend's event?

Hard to say right now...my thinking is around the red river....perhaps as much as 60 miles to the south. During the overnight times the DFW area will probably see some freezing precip but daytime temps should move above freezing.

This is similar to what local TV met Kristine Kahonek was mentioning last night. If there's gonna be ice, I guess this would be the best case, where it melts during the day. But that might depend on how thick it gets while temps are <32.

[plainsman]

this could be a prolonged freezing rain sleet event for North Texas... have you guys realized every winter that has come to DFW the last few yrs. they underestimated before hand and then like a day before they update it... same thing with this one.. this will catch them by surprise.. on dec.7 when dfw got hit hard with ice and snow they had cold rain up until the day before then at the last minute it was a winter storm warning.. friday night, saturday night and sunday night all have good chance at freezing rain and sleet from corsicana/waxahachie to sanangelo north to Dfw to sherman.. all local mets have temps around freezing those 3 nights and the precipitation chances have increased each night also according to the models lately...

[jasons2k]

WELL WELL WELL, I am finally back from NYC

We were supposed to fly home Sun. afternoon, but the airport was closed due to the blizzard, so we finally made it home close to midnight last night. I'll post about the experience in the NYC thread...it was quite amazing.

ANYWAY, going back to last weekend's event (since this is the first time I've been back online), it looks like my thinking wasn't too far off...and THANK GOODNESS my backyard bottomed-out at 29 and my plants have been spared...aside from a little leaf burn they seem OK.

I predicted the following: IAH 29; Hobby 32; Galveston 36; "No teens for Conroe"
Actuals: IAH 30, Hobby 30, Galveston 37, Conroe 23

I was off a degree or two, but not bad numbers as originally posted from last Monday. ALSO, kudos to the NWS for handling this event pretty well, as expected.

I read through the other thread and it looks like for the most part, we did NOT have the extreme event as predicted by some (thank GOD). Yes, some of the usual cold pockets (and Angleton is one of them; nothing new there; Freeport-Dow was 35) did record some very chilly readings but these were isolated. For the most part, we were spared and there was NOT a widespread hard freeze for Houston

[gboudx]

this could be a prolonged freezing rain sleet event for North Texas... have you guys realized every winter that has come to DFW the last few yrs. they underestimated before hand and then like a day before they update it... same thing with this one.. this will catch them by surprise.. on dec.7 when dfw got hit hard with ice and snow they had cold rain up until the day before then at the last minute it was a winter storm warning.. friday night, saturday night and sunday night all have good chance at freezing rain and sleet from corsicana/waxahachie to sanangelo north to Dfw to sherman.. all local mets have temps around freezing those 3 nights and the precipitation chances have increased each night also according to the models lately...

Those are good points plainsman, but I'll say that Kristine Kahonek nailed the Dec 7th event about 2 days out. Not only could we get more wintry precip than currently forecast, but it could just be plain old rain. If there's one thing I've learned about wintry precip up here, is don't buy the forecast until you actually see what's falling from the sky.

[Johnny]

Thanks for the lesson AFM. I'm planning on going to Wimberley (hill country) this Thursday and staying through Sunday. Do you expect the ice (if any) to stay north of this area?

[drezee]

Hmmm 12z GFS has a little something on it...

Interesting? Where does this cold air come from?




Total Precip: Snow N of DC per the model...some Freezing raing too

[MiamiensisWx]

It also shows a 1050 millibars ridge in the Rocky Mountains!

[Air Force Met]

Thanks for the lesson AFM. I'm planning on going to Wimberley (hill country) this Thursday and staying through Sunday. Do you expect the ice (if any) to stay north of this area?

Yeah...think it stays north of there.

What's interesting is next week as the upper low in the west moves out and the upper flow shifts...allowing more of the cold to filter further south. Of course, by then most of the arctic air has been tapped and is still moved to the east...but it will keep it below normal for a while.

[jasons2k]

Hey gang:

2 observations in addition to my post above about last weekend:

1) It looks like most of the urban core did not even experience a freeze. Driving around Midtown and Uptown today during lunch, I noted NO leaf burn on any of the tell-tale plants - all the bananas, tropical shrubs, schefflers, etc. show no freeze damage at all.

2) There were some posts awhile back by some members that these events would mean an end to the 70's for "weeks" in Houston with a prolonged period of below-normal temperatures. That didn't verify either.

I'm serving lots of crow - freshly imported from Central Park NYC

OH - PS - I almost forgot....that 26 that JB predicted for MCO and Harlingen - that ain't gonna happen either. Orlando hit 33, Tampa 37, Harlingen 31. However, he nailed the NE snowstorm, so kudos to him for that.

I think some people need to give some credit to the NWS; they did a fine job with this. Just because the models showed -4 at 850 or whatever didn't mean a whole lot in the end, did it?

[drezee]

Hey gang:

2 observations in addition to my post above about last weekend:

1) It looks like most of the urban core did not even experience a freeze. Driving around Midtown and Uptown today during lunch, I noted NO leaf burn on any of the tell-tale plants - all the bananas, tropical shrubs, schefflers, etc. show no freeze damage at all.

2) There were some posts awhile back by some members that these events would mean an end to the 70's for "weeks" in Houston with a prolonged period of below-normal temperatures. That didn't verify either.

I'm serving lots of crow - freshly imported from Central Park NYC

OH - PS - I almost forgot....that 26 that JB predicted for MCO and Harlingen - that ain't gonna happen either. Orlando hit 33, Tampa 37, Harlingen 31. However, he nailed the NE snowstorm, so kudos to him for that.

I think some people need to give some credit to the NWS; they did a fine job with this. Just because the models showed -4 at 850 or whatever didn't mean a whole lot in the end, did it?

I stay SE of Orlando (Narcossee) and I hit 28 last night. MCO will never see the records of the past, because of the heat island.

[jasons2k]

Never say never, but yes you are probably right, it will be harder and harder to match the records of the past. Several locations in Central Florida did hit freezing, but nothing like the damaging hard freeze he predicted.

[Johnny]

Thanks AFM...they are having a big chili cookoff in Wimberley this Saturday and I don't want anything to interfere with that!

Well once again, we had arctic air to work and we did not get a direct hit from it. IMO, you can write this in stone. We will NOT see any major arctic outbreaks here in the deep south this winter. The arctic air is being tapped and as AFM pointed out most of it has been slipping off to the east. We could see some below normal temp readings over the next couple of weeks but nothing too out of the ordinary. Ok, I'm gonna go ahead and stick my potatoes in the ground now.

Side note: I appreciate everyones analysis over the past couple of weeks with the possibilty of arctic air kicking us in the tail but as usual, we miss the the good stuff. I learned alot, that's for sure. Keep up the good work!

[Air Force Met]

Hey gang:


I think some people need to give some credit to the NWS; they did a fine job with this. Just because the models showed -4 at 850 or whatever didn't mean a whole lot in the end, did it?

I know it ain't me...

First... I said it was going east weeks ago. Second...well...we know what I think about 850 MB temps!

[jasons2k]

No sir, wasn't you

I'm a little peeved that Hobby came in with that 30 though. Usually, if IAH was at 30, and Galveston was at 37, Hobby should have been in-between close to my predicted 32. Oh well, I suppose the winds did some strange things. Overall though, I think missing by 1*F at IAH and GLS and 2*F at Hobby from 6 days out isn't bad.

[Portastorm]

Hey gang:


I think some people need to give some credit to the NWS; they did a fine job with this. Just because the models showed -4 at 850 or whatever didn't mean a whole lot in the end, did it?

I know it ain't me...

First... I said it was going east weeks ago. Second...well...we know what I think about 850 MB temps!

Nope, wasn't you chief. You and jschlitz and gboudx were all in the more temperate camp when it came to predictions on this past weekend. It was Tyler and Extremeweatherguy who predicted the advent of the next Ice Age and Wooly Mammoths running rampant along I-10!

Kidding guys ... just kidding ...

[Air Force Met]

Nope, wasn't you chief. You and jschlitz and gboudx were all in the more temperate camp when it came to predictions on this past weekend. It was Tyler and Extremeweatherguy who predicted the advent of the next Ice Age and Wooly Mammoths running rampant along I-10!

Kidding guys ... just kidding ...

I missed all of that. I was busy but to be honest...I really didn't think it was going to get that cold...thought it was going into the east...and still do....especially now that a big portion of it's been tapped. I'll have to go back and read some...sounds like I missed some fun.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Never say never, but yes you are probably right, it will be harder and harder to match the records of the past. Several locations in Central Florida did hit freezing, but nothing like the damaging hard freeze he predicted.

you need to remember though that he predicted this way back in middle January and said he expected it by Feb. 15th. Overall, I think he did a mighty fine job considering that many places in Central FL hit the 20s and in North Central FL, Ocala hit 21F. For a prediction 1 month out...not bad at all.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey gang:


I think some people need to give some credit to the NWS; they did a fine job with this. Just because the models showed -4 at 850 or whatever didn't mean a whole lot in the end, did it?

I know it ain't me...

First... I said it was going east weeks ago. Second...well...we know what I think about 850 MB temps!

Nope, wasn't you chief. You and jschlitz and gboudx were all in the more temperate camp when it came to predictions on this past weekend. It was Tyler and Extremeweatherguy who predicted the advent of the next Ice Age and Wooly Mammoths running rampant along I-10!

Kidding guys ... just kidding ...

Just to let you know...this was my forecast from last Friday:

IAH = 26-28F
Hooks = 24-26F
Conroe = 21-23F
Hobby = 28-30F
Galveston = 33-35F
My House = 23-25F

I would not really call that forecasting an ice age..and in fact..my biggest bust was 2F (at IAH and Galveston). My forecast for Hooks only busted by 1F, and the forecast for my house and Conroe was right on (both places hit 23F), and my Hobby forecast was right on too. Overall, I think I did a pretty good job with the cold snap...and if the winds WOULD have been calm at IAH, Hooks and Galveston then they would have fallen into my range too...but since there were a few periods of light winds, they managed to stay 1-2F above my prediction (and this prediction was made over 24 hrs. out too). Now if I would have been predicting...lets say...17F at IAH, and 12F in Conroe, then yes...you could say that I was forecasting an ice age..but really I don't think I was.