Snowstorm on Thursday for the plains?

[WaitingForSiren]

It looks like a storm is quite possible wednesday into thursday for us in Minnesota..I was wondering if anyone else thought this as well.

[chizniz16]

I'm right here watching it unfold with you, its about time we had a decent system move in. I'm in Southern Mn, Mankato. It looks like the further south east you go with this system the higher the totals. The models pushed it southeast yesterday, but last nights models and todays are bringing it back northwest slightly. It looks like a general 3-6 inch storm with localy higher totals around 6-8.

[plainsman]

ya i travel from moorhead minnesota to north texas (Dallas) often thruout the yr. im up and down the plains... looks like brutal cold for the north plains.... along with snow and wind blown snow.. coldest temps of the yr. coming up possibly, and for North Texas oklahoma ark, southern kansas could be a 3 day freezing rain event................ looks like from north texas to northern nd and mn looks to be cold and wintry starting friday.....

[conestogo_flood]

It's supposed to pass over southern Ontario Thurs-Sat. The Weather Network says rain Thurs-Fri and snow Sat., so I don't know what to think. I need an expert opinion someone!

[WaitingForSiren]

The latest models really crank this thing up thursday into Friday for minnesota...looks like it could be a big one for somebody. It looks like a southern minnesota and iowa type event right now, but who knows maybe it'll go a little further north...looks impressive. I can see this being a 6-10 incher, maybe 12 inches locally.

And about the ice in the south, I agree. it looks like after this thing passes through a baroclinic zone will stall in the southern plains allowing for gulf air to overide and cause widesprain ice and snow in the south, I think this will be the most active week of winter weather for much of the nation this winter so far.

[Ivanhater]

The latest models really crank this thing up thursday into Friday for minnesota...looks like it could be a big one for somebody. It looks like a southern minnesota and iowa type event right now, but who knows maybe it'll go a little further north...looks impressive. I can see this being a 6-10 incher, maybe 12 inches locally.

And about the ice in the south, I agree. it looks like after this thing passes through a baroclinic zone will stall in the southern plains allowing for gulf air to overide and cause widesprain ice and snow in the south, I think this will be the most active week of winter weather for much of the nation this winter so far.

sorry, im not a winter expert at all, possible snow for Pensacola?

[plainsman]

no this next arctic wave of cold air will not effect the southeast as much as the last one this is more of a blue norther front cold air that dives into Texas and Oklahoma and stalls and doesnt move east (the most arctic of air ) like the one in early Dec.. which caused a good ice and snowstorm in Dallas, Oklahoma City and the southern plains,... although its too early to tell exactly whats going to happen, models vary, it generally looks extremly cold and brutal for the northern plains with moderate to heavy snow and gusty winds with ground blizzards looks to be the coldest of the yr. and an overrunning freezing rain sleet storm setup for the southern plains, (North Texas Oklahoma, Southern Kansas and western arkansas) as for pensacola according to all the models ive looked at it wont effect florida at all maybe slightly cooler lows in the lows upper 30s to 40 and highs in the upper 50s low 60s, isnt that slighty cooler then your average this time of yr? generally this looks to be like a classic blue norther for Tx and Ok with the frigid air diving straight south through the plain states, and the core of the arctic air will not go southeast although some arctic air will drift to birmingham and atlanta will get colder and possible wintry precip for north miss, and alabama and tennessee but the air will not make it to florida.... the core of the arctic air will stay in the southern plain states....

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest models really crank this thing up thursday into Friday for minnesota...looks like it could be a big one for somebody. It looks like a southern minnesota and iowa type event right now, but who knows maybe it'll go a little further north...looks impressive. I can see this being a 6-10 incher, maybe 12 inches locally.

And about the ice in the south, I agree. it looks like after this thing passes through a baroclinic zone will stall in the southern plains allowing for gulf air to overide and cause widesprain ice and snow in the south, I think this will be the most active week of winter weather for much of the nation this winter so far.

I agree with you there. This may be one of the craziest weeks of weather in many years. In fact, it already is crazy...1st or 2nd largest snowstorm in NYC history, a hard freeze in parts of Houston, and freeze warnings in southern and central FL tonight! Just the beginning..

[plainsman]

extreme, didnt u say u moved from florida to southeast texas recently, theres nothing too unusual about a hard freeze in houston in mid february, its unusual for wintry precip to occur in mid february in southeast texas but as far as a hard freeze, thats not unusual in houston in february, centrel in south florida ya it is unusual, for it to freeze in mid february... and i wouldnt call it to hard of a freeze temps arent going to be in the teens, temps will be well into the 20s in southeast texas.....

[Extremeweatherguy]

extreme, didnt u say u moved from florida to southeast texas recently, theres nothing too unusual about a hard freeze in houston in mid february, its unusual for wintry precip to occur in mid february in southeast texas but as far as a hard freeze, thats not unusual in houston in february, centrel in south florida ya it is unusual, for it to freeze in mid february... and i wouldnt call it to hard of a freeze temps arent going to be in the teens, temps will be well into the 20s in southeast texas.....

yes, it seems bigger though because the area has not recorded a freeze since December. Also, this has been Houston's biggest February freeze since 2002 (the climate records of the last 3 Febs. were quite mild..in fact, last Feb. there were no freezes in Houston).

[PurdueWx80]

I'll post more on this later when I get to work and get a better look at the models. However, 1) the Gulf will be wide open for the mid/late week system(s) and 2) true arctic air will be found on the northern side of the frontal boundary. The amount of baroclinicity here (difference in temp along the front) suggests a major snowfall is likely along and north of the surface boundary, which looks to lie from roughly the central Plains to the Lakes on Thursday. We don't need big deepening storms to produce large snowfalls in this part of the country - especially when arctic air meets Gulf air. Overrunning will suffice; however, there should be some sort of wave/low pressure system that will ride along the front and deepen once it gets to the eastern side of the Polar Vortex in Canada.

Don't trust QPF from the models when judging potential snow amounts (that should be clear from the storm in New England now). Very cold air just north of the boundary (temps will likely be in the teens in the heavy snow) will allow for 15-30:1 snowfall ratios (dry, powdery snow) there. I expect this storm to produce max snow totals on the order of 8-14", with isolated places receiving ~18". This is all very preliminary and will depend on where the boundary sets up and how much energy rotates around the polar vortex. There is fairly good consensus on the models right now. After that, the cold will be on the move - any places that see this snowfall will likely have lows well below zero this weekend. That won't be the end - the arctic boundary will not make a huge push south with no strong meridional flow in place - there will likely be another overrunning situation from the central/southern Plains into the OH/TN Valleys over the weekend. Will write more later.

[chizniz16]

This is why I came to this board, very educated people here.

[WaitingForSiren]

Yup purdue took the words out of my mouth. But, purdue, do you think Minneapolis will be in for heavy snow? I definitely think so especially since the models tend to lose track of these rocky mountain lows until they emerge in the plains. Lately, the consensus has been further north, and i expect that trend will continue. Definitely a nice plains snowstorm...I just hopw it doesnt turn out like that january 2005 storm that slammed iowa and missed MN. I want a major snowstorm, dammit!
But the sypnotic set up looks very similar to that particular storm...also, I think isolated severe storms will be very possible.

[chizniz16]

lol Siren, that storm didnt miss all of Minnesota... Just 90 minutes away from you here in Mankato we picked up 12-14 inches That was the only time we ever beat out the Cities on a storm.

[WaitingForSiren]

No, I dont mean that storm. That one youre thinking of was in mid february or early march or something, I mean the one that hit iowa, nebraska and chicago.

[carve]

JUST ANOTHER MISS HERE IN OHIO.

[Kim_in_MN]

Yup purdue took the words out of my mouth. But, purdue, do you think Minneapolis will be in for heavy snow? I definitely think so especially since the models tend to lose track of these rocky mountain lows until they emerge in the plains. Lately, the consensus has been further north, and i expect that trend will continue. Definitely a nice plains snowstorm...I just hopw it doesnt turn out like that january 2005 storm that slammed iowa and missed MN. I want a major snowstorm, dammit!
But the sypnotic set up looks very similar to that particular storm...also, I think isolated severe storms will be very possible.

So how far north is it predicted to go? I wouldn't mind a snow day <g>

Kim

[chizniz16]

Hopefully those off timed GFS models are not correct. They are pulling it all southeast while the 00 consistantly pulls it northwest. What do you you guys think?

[PurdueWx80]

chizniz - I think further south is the way to go, simply because this low level cold air is very dense, acting to push the front further down the continent. We'll have to watch the arctic boundary on Tues/Wed to see how far south it makes it. Also, the piece of energy rounding the bend in the West should help keep things further south as it digs into the mean trough. Southern MN will see snow, but the northern edge of the precip shield will have a very sharp cutoff due to the very strong Arctic High to the NW of the system (and its associated dry/cold air). We're too far out to call the northern edge of the storm right now.

The 12Z GFS is somewhat flatter with Thursday's wave, though still produces copious amounts of overrunning precipitation. On the other hand, the 12Z UKMET and ECMWF are considerably stronger, bombing the low out in Eastern Canada. There are hints of an initial wave on both of these models (somewhat like the NAM) for Wednesday (strong warm air advection pattern), with the main show Wed night into Thursday. As has been the case for the NAM beyond 48 hours, it is likely too flat/cold/south since it isn't handling the energy out in the Pacific well yet.

I still have to believe, given the combo of modified Gulf air and really freakin' cold air north of the front (strong baroclinicity) with a strongly coupled jet, that totals in parts of WI and MI will exceed a foot, particularly in locations where lake-enhancement is favorable. Similar totals will also be possible back in the Rockies and the Front Range where it will all begin later tomorrow and into Wed. It should also become rather windy given the gradient between the 1050+ high in the Rockies and this 995-1000mb low in the Lakes. We'll have to watch out for the possibility of icing on the southern edge of the snow, particularly if low-level cold air can undercut some of the warming at 850 mb - this often happens in this sort of situation.

And yes, south of the front, severe weather seems like a distinct possibility - we'll have to watch the amount of convection in the warm sector, as this may cut off some moisture for the snowy side of the system. Right now, the models aren't going bongo with convection...probably because much of the warm sector will be on the right exit region side of the upper jet (not conducive to upward motion). Highs on Wed and Thurs will make it into the 60s and 70s as far north as the OH/TN Valleys!

[cheezyWXguy]

hey, purduewx80, what do you think about the chance for an ice/snow storm for the NTX area?