Snow in Tampa, FL?

[JonathanBelles]

when would those flurries be? i wanna be there and what is the ruskin center site?

[Cookiely]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 120758
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
258 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUE)...WITH FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST...STRONG CAA
IS UNDERWAY. ONCE THE MID AND HI CLOUDS DEPART...WE`LL SEE PLENTY OF
LOW COLD AIR STRATO CU COMING OFF THE GULF TODAY...THICKEST NEAR THE
COAST AND LESS COVERAGE HEADING INLAND. TIGHT PRES GRAD...STRONG BL
WINDS...AND STEEP LOLVL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUING TODAY AND ESP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL REISSUE THE LAKE WIND
ADV FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA FOR TODAY. TEMPS WILL CONT TO SLOWLY FALL
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME RECOVERING THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50
NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...TO THE LOW-MID 50S TAMPA BAY SOUTH.

TONIGHT WILL BE COLD AND BREEZY WITH WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO
THE 20S MOST PLACES EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR THE TAMPA BAY WATERS AND SOUTH
NEAR FMY. WIND CHILL ADV`S FOR TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE AND WILL BE
ENHANCED AFTER MIDNIGHT BY AN APPROACHING SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
TROF. DESPITE THE WIND...THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE INLAND NATURE
COAST AND 29-31 FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR INTERIOR CENTRAL
ZONES. WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO THE WATER...MUCH OF
SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE COUNTY...AS WELL AS LANDS RIGHT
ADJACENT TO TAMPA BAY AND COASTAL WATERS...WILL REMAIN JUST AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING. CURRENT FREEZE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO WARNING.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
12Z...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE. WE`LL LIKELY SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE STRATO CU MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER ATTM...NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN.
INSTEAD...PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPRINKLES...OR MAYBE EVEN A FEW SNOW
FLAKES NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. THE REST OF MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL BUT NOT AS BREEZY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO AROUND 60 SOUTH.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL SET
US UP FOR SOME VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS...PERHAPS THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE SEASON. LOWS TUES MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 22-28 FOR THE
INLAND NATURE COAST TO UPR 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND CENTRAL COAST. EVEN
THE IMMEDIATE CENTRAL COAST DOWN TOWARD FMY MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH
FREEZING. FREEZE WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALL
COUNTIES EXCEPT PINELLAS...SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE. SUNNY AND
FINALLY A BIT WARMER ON TUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SAT)...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC...WESTWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM WHAT WE`VE SEEN MOST OF
THE WINTER WHERE A DEEP EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WAS PUSHING COLD FRONTS
THROUGH THE STATE EVERY 2 TO 3 DAYS. INSTEAD...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...UNTIL WE FINALLY
LEVEL OUT IN TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE AROUND FRIDAY.

AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES AGO...THEY WILL BE MINIMAL RIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ABOVE ABOUT 5000 FEET.

WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE OUR LAST COLD MORNING...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S FOR THE NATURE COAST AND MIDDLE 30S INTERIOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. MANY AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL CHANGE WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...AND
CLIMB WELL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE
NATURE COAST.

&&

[Cookiely]

when would those flurries be? i wanna be there and what is the ruskin center site?

If and big if we have the flurries, Monday morning is best shot I think. Here is the link. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... L&site=TBW
click on forecast discussion at the bottom of the page.

[Cookiely]

Its 39 degrees at my home and I don't believe we will get to expected hi of 52 today. I'm off to purchase covers and clothes pins for the garden and pump.

[gatorcane]

If there is snow from the Tampa Bay area, all of central and South Pinellas is out of the question. The water influence will keep it from happening. Northern Pinellas (interior) and parts of Tampa and points north into pasco and hernando is where it could happen.

Last time Tampa Bay area saw snow flurries was Dec. 1989. Before that it was 1977.

[JonathanBelles]

i live in the coldest spot of pinellas

[drezee]

GFS has shown 0.5 to 1 inch over last 2 runs:

Still a go????

[JonathanBelles]

i hope so

[Cookiely]

SPRINKLES WHO CARES ABOUT SPRINKLES NO FLURRIES ME CRY
000
FXUS62 KTBW 130845
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
345 AM EST MON FEB 13 2006

.CURRENTLY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST...EARLY
THIS MORNING. FROM POLK COUNTY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES VARY WIDELY DEPENDING ON WIND
AND CLOUDS WITH LOCATIONS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD NEAR
THE COAST STILL HOLDING BETWEEN 45 AND 50...WITH MOSTLY 30S OVER
INLAND AREAS AND ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. ALSO RADAR INDICATING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING IN OFF GULF THANKS TO SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THESE SHOULD END AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF EAST COAST.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...FOR TODAY...STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN OFF GULF ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
MORNING THEN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN GULF AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT HELPING TO CLEAR
SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE...BUT SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH MORE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR TONIGHT...
THINGS ARE SETTING UP FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE PENINSULA BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WILL ISSUE FREEZE WARNING
FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT PINELLAS. HOWEVER...EVEN NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF PINELLAS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING...BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WARNING.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MODERATING TREND BEGINS AS THE
HIGH SLIDES EAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. SKIES WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CLEAR
ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S. TUESDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO
LOWER 40S ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A FEW MORE CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM (WED NGT-SUN)...A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS THE DEEP MID-LEVEL EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH IS REPLACED BY A MORE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW. THIS
PATTERN GENERALLY HOLDS ON THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
FALL A BIT DURING THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING TRIES TO REDEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY AND BECOMES WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED BY SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BRIDGES ACROSS.

THIS ALL BOILS DOWN TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH WE CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE WEEKEND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE POPS AROUND
10 PERCENT FOR NOW...WHILE THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINS ON SUNDAY.

WITH RISING HEIGHTS INITIALLY...WE FINALLY CARVE OUT THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND END UP WITH A 3 DAY STRETCH OF 75 TO 80
DEGREE WEATHER FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. I HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE MEX GUIDANCE...WHICH IS NOW VERY
CLOSE TO THE NUMBERS FROM THE LATEST 00Z OPERATIONAL MEX GUIDANCE.

I AM ALSO GOING TO SHOW COOLER MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE TAMPA BAY REGION...AS EFFECTS OF THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BRING THE NATURE COAST BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

[JonathanBelles]

ive got a mix of rain snow it was raining an hour ago will it turn to snow?

[O Town]

I think you guys are wishful thinking. If you think it will actually snow in Tampa, then I got some ocean front property in Arizona for sale.
Sorry guys, I mean I know it COULD happen , but come on now.

[Tyler]

ive got a mix of rain snow it was raining an hour ago will it turn to snow?

You don't have a mix of rain and snow. Your surface temps don't support it. Your in the mid 40s right now!

Tonight you will be in the lower 30s, so a light freeze is possible, however, there will be no moisture around, so it looks like you will not see any flurries. Sorry.

[Extremeweatherguy]

ive got a mix of rain snow it was raining an hour ago will it turn to snow?

First off. You do not have a significant mix of rain and snow...I can assure you that (we would have heard about it on the news if you did). Second off. If you would have read the AFD right above your post..you would have found that they are no longer expecting flurries..just sprinkles...so I doubt a change over to all snow is coming. I know your wishful and want to believe small flurries are mixing with the rain and that all of the sudden a major snowstorm will hit; but this time it looks like Tampa will escape accumulating snow yet again.

[linkerweather]

We had several reports of flurries mixed with sprinkles around NW HIllsborough co. and S Pasco around 7 am, including from my wife. She ran back in to get the camera but it was over after about 5 minutes.

By the way my thermometer showed 35 at that time.

[ocracoke]

ive got a mix of rain snow it was raining an hour ago will it turn to snow?

You don't have a mix of rain and snow. Your surface temps don't support it. Your in the mid 40s right now!

It's actually not as hard as you might think to have snow (especially wet, partially melted snowflakes mixed with rain) when surface temps are in the mid 40's. All that is necessary is a deep layer of subfreezing air just above the surface. If the layer of above freezing air near the ground is shallow enough, the snow won't completely melt on the way down. This morning's sounding from KTBW clearly supported such a situation. It was 0 degrees Celsius at just 987 meters above sea level (that's 3,238.2 feet); most certainly conducive for some wet snowflakes to mix in with the rain.

[JonathanBelles]

ive got a mix of rain snow it was raining an hour ago will it turn to snow?

You don't have a mix of rain and snow. Your surface temps don't support it. Your in the mid 40s right now!

It's actually not as hard as you might think to have snow (especially wet, partially melted snowflakes mixed with rain) when surface temps are in the mid 40's. All that is necessary is a deep layer of subfreezing air just above the surface. If the layer of above freezing air near the ground is shallow enough, the snow won't completely melt on the way down. This morning's sounding from KTBW clearly supported such a situation. It was 0 degrees Celsius at just 987 meters above sea level (that's 3,238.2 feet); most certainly conducive for some wet snowflakes to mix in with the rain.

it was 39 degrees on my front porch this morning and i did have a mix

[Extremeweatherguy]

ive got a mix of rain snow it was raining an hour ago will it turn to snow?

You don't have a mix of rain and snow. Your surface temps don't support it. Your in the mid 40s right now!

It's actually not as hard as you might think to have snow (especially wet, partially melted snowflakes mixed with rain) when surface temps are in the mid 40's. All that is necessary is a deep layer of subfreezing air just above the surface. If the layer of above freezing air near the ground is shallow enough, the snow won't completely melt on the way down. This morning's sounding from KTBW clearly supported such a situation. It was 0 degrees Celsius at just 987 meters above sea level (that's 3,238.2 feet); most certainly conducive for some wet snowflakes to mix in with the rain.

3,238.2 feet is actually quite a long way up for snowflakes to stay intact as they reach the ground...especially if ground temps. are above 40F. Now if it was 500 feet up, then yes it is very possible. The places that saw some light mixture were places that were most likely below 40F at the time. And even then it sounds like a non-event. You must of had to look quite hard to see the flakes. If they did make it, they were probably tiny. In most cities they would probably not even be noticed when mixing with the rain...but since it is the west coast of Florida I understand. May be you guys in Tampa can get a real good snowstorm one day soon. you deserve it. When I lived in Orlando, I remember I would always wish for a snowstorm that never came. I am sure that is how most of you have felt as well.

[Tyler]

ive got a mix of rain snow it was raining an hour ago will it turn to snow?

You don't have a mix of rain and snow. Your surface temps don't support it. Your in the mid 40s right now!

It's actually not as hard as you might think to have snow (especially wet, partially melted snowflakes mixed with rain) when surface temps are in the mid 40's. All that is necessary is a deep layer of subfreezing air just above the surface. If the layer of above freezing air near the ground is shallow enough, the snow won't completely melt on the way down. This morning's sounding from KTBW clearly supported such a situation. It was 0 degrees Celsius at just 987 meters above sea level (that's 3,238.2 feet); most certainly conducive for some wet snowflakes to mix in with the rain.

3,238.2 feet is actually quite a long way up for snowflakes to stay intact as they reach the ground...especially if ground temps. are above 40F. Now if it was 500 feet up, then yes it is very possible. The places that saw some light mixture were places that were most likely below 40F at the time. And even then it sounds like a non-event. You must of had to look quite hard to see the flakes. If they did make it, they were probably tiny. In most cities they would probably not even be noticed when mixing with the rain...but since it is the west coast of Florida I understand. May be you guys in Tampa can get a real good snowstorm one day soon. you deserve it. When I lived in Orlando, I remember I would always wish for a snowstorm that never came. I am sure that is how most of you have felt as well.

I agree with Extreme. I highly doubt with mid 40s as surface temps, that FLORIDA saw flurries. Its rare to see snow in the mid 40s, and I'm not about to think it happened in Florida. I think some people who reported flurries this morning were just seeing things, and just got excited... Temperatures DID NOT support flurries in the Tampa area, St. Pete area...

[linkerweather]

As a meteorologist I can tell you that I know what snow flakes look like. I have worked in the northeast and the midwest. I saw them with my own eyes this morning while walking out the door to take my kid to the bus stop at 7 am. There were a few rain drops (sprinkles) and then mixed in were occassional snow flakes. I live in NW Hillsborough county near the Citrus Park Mall. We have also had a few reports from that area along with the Tyrone square area earlier in the morning. We have some temp reports of 38 or 39 in Central Pinellas or NW St. Pete. Here is one example ....an email from a Pinellas county Paramedic... I x'ed out the return email address.


Posted To: Comments
Conversation: A Message from the Website: Snow last night
Subject: A Message from the Website: Snow last night


RETURN: ContactUs.html
TO: comments
FROM: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
SUBJECT: Snow last night
MESSAGE: I am a Paramedic in Pinellas county and while on duty last night about 2am we encountered a mix of frozen rain and small to medium size snow flakes in the area just south of te Tyrone Square Mall.
SUBMIT: Submit

[Tstormwatcher]

Its amazing that those who say there were no flurries live in Texas. By the way, we had flurries yesterday and it was 40F.