Katrina Death Toll May Never Be Known

[Derek Ortt]

would it really take 72 hours to clear out everyone from NO?

The reaosn I ask is that during Rita, when the US Army assisted in the evac, all of Houston was evacuated in about 24 hours, and Houston has about 3X the pop as NO had before Katrina. I know that Rita was a special case since the Army was deployaed due to Katrina, but I wonder if we can get the people out if we really had to again

[Audrey2Katrina]

Yup, while we don't have the problem the Keys have; we DO have precious few avenues out of the metro NO area--just 1-10, and 90 really. (of course they could go across the Lake via the Causeway and catch I-12, which will ultimately bring them back to 10 to the west, a few other options to the East. Yes Houston is vastly larger but I believe it has a virtual mesh of roads/highways leading out, whereas the GNO area is funneled into an inadequately kept up few evacuation routes. The only "up side" if you want to put a positive face on it, is that the metro population now is about half what it was 6 months ago, and will likely not get back to pre-Katrina levels for several years, which would at least make for having to move a much smaller number of people. That said, the view of most around here will still probably be to wait till that last minute, and you'd still have major congestion. If you try to get to the CBD of late, you know what I mean. For a city with roghly 1/4 to 1/3 of it's August population, the traffic getting in and out of there is unbelievable.

A2K

[ROCK]

would it really take 72 hours to clear out everyone from NO?

The reaosn I ask is that during Rita, when the US Army assisted in the evac, all of Houston was evacuated in about 24 hours, and Houston has about 3X the pop as NO had before Katrina. I know that Rita was a special case since the Army was deployaed due to Katrina, but I wonder if we can get the people out if we really had to again

Seems unreal it would take that long to evac a city of that size. Like you said in Houston we were out the door in 24 hrs of course not with out our headaches. Maybe if NO is planning to remain on the coast they should look at building a few more roads to evac from and have a better plan next time to get out.

[Ixolib]

would it really take 72 hours to clear out everyone from NO?

The reaosn I ask is that during Rita, when the US Army assisted in the evac, all of Houston was evacuated in about 24 hours, and Houston has about 3X the pop as NO had before Katrina. I know that Rita was a special case since the Army was deployaed due to Katrina, but I wonder if we can get the people out if we really had to again

Seems unreal it would take that long to evac a city of that size. Like you said in Houston we were out the door in 24 hrs of course not with out our headaches. Maybe if NO is planning to remain on the coast they should look at building a few more roads to evac from and have a better plan next time to get out.

As I recall, those "headaches" were about as major as they come...

I believe it is unreasonable for anyone to believe they can effectively evacuate a city of millions - or even hundreds of thousands - in 24 hours. In fact, if the media reports were even close to accurate for the Rita evacuation, many of those who initially left Houston ended up turning around and going back home because the traffic jams were beyond words. Plus, it is doubtful that "all of Houston" was evacuated. Surely there were thousands who choose not to leave...

[Pearl River]

ROCK wrote

Derek Ortt wrote:
would it really take 72 hours to clear out everyone from NO?

The reaosn I ask is that during Rita, when the US Army assisted in the evac, all of Houston was evacuated in about 24 hours, and Houston has about 3X the pop as NO had before Katrina. I know that Rita was a special case since the Army was deployaed due to Katrina, but I wonder if we can get the people out if we really had to again


Seems unreal it would take that long to evac a city of that size. Like you said in Houston we were out the door in 24 hrs of course not with out our headaches. Maybe if NO is planning to remain on the coast they should look at building a few more roads to evac from and have a better plan next time to get out.

This map will explain why and remember we have other areas south of N.O. that will be evacuated first.

http://www.ohsep.louisiana.gov/evacinfo/no_contraflow.htm

[Audrey2Katrina]

Good point, Ixolib; since fortunately the much touted "worst case scenario" did not develop for the Houston area, there is no telling how many did NOT get out of town; (the gridlock in 98 temps was a nightmare from what I saw) but I would bet with a city that size it was probably well over 100,000 that wound up riding it out--fortunate for them Rita gave them (Houston) little more than blustery conditions (I believe top ASOS recorded gusts were barely 60 mph--still nothing to snuff at but suggesting sustained of 30-40 mph range and not remotely what it could have been) and some much needed rain in that area of Texas. This was sadly NOT true for the unfortunate residents of Beaumont-Orange and in Cameron Parish.

A2K

[ROCK]

would it really take 72 hours to clear out everyone from NO?

The reaosn I ask is that during Rita, when the US Army assisted in the evac, all of Houston was evacuated in about 24 hours, and Houston has about 3X the pop as NO had before Katrina. I know that Rita was a special case since the Army was deployaed due to Katrina, but I wonder if we can get the people out if we really had to again

Seems unreal it would take that long to evac a city of that size. Like you said in Houston we were out the door in 24 hrs of course not with out our headaches. Maybe if NO is planning to remain on the coast they should look at building a few more roads to evac from and have a better plan next time to get out.

As I recall, those "headaches" were about as major as they come...

I believe it is unreasonable for anyone to believe they can effectively evacuate a city of millions - or even hundreds of thousands - in 24 hours. In fact, if the media reports were even close to accurate for the Rita evacuation, many of those who initially left Houston ended up turning around and going back home because the traffic jams were beyond words. Plus, it is doubtful that "all of Houston" was evacuated. Surely there were thousands who choose not to leave...

I am sure there were thousand of people who stayed. Not all of Houston is in a cat 5 evac zone. No need to leave unless of course for peace of mind. Now for people in the evac zones most got out. Galeston for one was a ghost town 24hrs out.

The main reason for the traffic jams was the fact that people evac when they didn't have to. Which I guess is always good but as we saw it can cause problems and in a few cases fatalities. Houston has learned a valuable lesson from this evac drill and I am sure the people in charge will make the necessary changes the next time a threat is real.

[wxman57]

would it really take 72 hours to clear out everyone from NO?

The reaosn I ask is that during Rita, when the US Army assisted in the evac, all of Houston was evacuated in about 24 hours, and Houston has about 3X the pop as NO had before Katrina. I know that Rita was a special case since the Army was deployaed due to Katrina, but I wonder if we can get the people out if we really had to again

Derek,

I think that a much greater percentage of Houston residents have personal transportation than those in New Orleans. Houston is a giant, spread-out city. You can't walk anywhere, so it's hard to get around without a car. Also, there are a lot of roads leading out of the greater Houston area, though it did seem that most Houston residents thought that there were only I-45, Hwy. 59, and I-10 out of the city during the Rita evacuation. Residents of Houston were also highly-motivated after watching the unfolding story in Hew Orleans for the previous 4 weeks.

Now, maybe New Orleans residents (or the mayor & governor) would have reacted differently if Houston had been wiped out 4 weeks before by a major hurricane. They wouln't have waited until Katrina's outer bands were lashing the city before finally calling for a full evacuation.

[ROCK]

would it really take 72 hours to clear out everyone from NO?

The reaosn I ask is that during Rita, when the US Army assisted in the evac, all of Houston was evacuated in about 24 hours, and Houston has about 3X the pop as NO had before Katrina. I know that Rita was a special case since the Army was deployaed due to Katrina, but I wonder if we can get the people out if we really had to again

Derek,

I think that a much greater percentage of Houston residents have personal transportation than those in New Orleans. Houston is a giant, spread-out city. You can't walk anywhere, so it's hard to get around without a car. Also, there are a lot of roads leading out of the greater Houston area, though it did seem that most Houston residents thought that there were only I-45, Hwy. 59, and I-10 out of the city during the Rita evacuation. Residents of Houston were also highly-motivated after watching the unfolding story in Hew Orleans for the previous 4 weeks.

Now, maybe New Orleans reesidents (or the mayor & governor) would have reacted differently if Houston had been wiped out 4 weeks before by a major hurricane. They wouln't have waited until Katrina's outer bands were lashing the city before finally calling for a full evacuation.

good point.

[Pearl River]

Thousands of people in N.O. had the transportation available to leave, but chose not to. Several chose to drive to the Superdome and park their vehicles there.

Unfortunately with Ivan in 2004, people chose to stay and not get in the several hour traffic jam to get out fearing a last minute turn away from the city by Katrina.

Houston also has 8 lanes of Interstate to start funneling people out.

[TSmith274]

I seriously doubt that "all of Houston" was evacuated for Rita. I guarantee you that if the city would have taken a direct hit and flooded, which probably wouldn't have happened anyway... you would have seen that a lot of people stayed behind. You'll always have those who will stay behind... it's mindboggling, but true. Although, I'm not looking forward to the bedlam that will result in New Orleans the first time a big storm enters the gulf. Can't imagine anyone would stay again.

[wxman57]

I seriously doubt that "all of Houston" was evacuated for Rita. I guarantee you that if the city would have taken a direct hit and flooded, which probably wouldn't have happened anyway... you would have seen that a lot of people stayed behind. You'll always have those who will stay behind... it's mindboggling, but true. Although, I'm not looking forward to the bedlam that will result in New Orleans the first time a big storm enters the gulf. Can't imagine anyone would stay again.

I believe that there are about 1.5 million people living in the evacuation zone for Houston, which is mainly south and east of the city. There are about 4 million people (or a bit more) in the greater Houston area. It's estimated that about 3 million evacuated (or tried to). They left 3 days before Rita hit. It was quite eerie around the city. I drove 20 miles to work and saw 1 other car on the freeway! We went biking toward downtown and it was deserted. Sure was great driving around with most of the people gone. But every business was closed. Couldn't get gas or go to the grocery store for 3 days before Rita. That was a bit ridiculous, as people should never have evacuated form the city limits of Houston. Houston, proper, isn't in a surge zone, except maybe for the area around the ship channel on the east side.

[ROCK]

I seriously doubt that "all of Houston" was evacuated for Rita. I guarantee you that if the city would have taken a direct hit and flooded, which probably wouldn't have happened anyway... you would have seen that a lot of people stayed behind. You'll always have those who will stay behind... it's mindboggling, but true. Although, I'm not looking forward to the bedlam that will result in New Orleans the first time a big storm enters the gulf. Can't imagine anyone would stay again.

Your right "All of Houston" didn't evac b/c they didn't have to. Only a about half of Harris County is in a cat 5 evac zone if even that. No need to leave if only for the sake of leaving. And just to add, a cat 5 into Galveston would wipe out that city and the smaller cities north of there as well as flood the DT area similar to Allison. The ship channel and all the refineries would be underwater. You think gas was high after Katrina. However all of the greater Houston area would not flood in a 5. The SLOTH model take the surge north as far as DT.

[dhweather]

would it really take 72 hours to clear out everyone from NO?

The reaosn I ask is that during Rita, when the US Army assisted in the evac, all of Houston was evacuated in about 24 hours, and Houston has about 3X the pop as NO had before Katrina. I know that Rita was a special case since the Army was deployaed due to Katrina, but I wonder if we can get the people out if we really had to again

New Orleans will always suffer from location.

You can not evacuate to the north over the lake Ponchartrain causeway,
so you are limited to east/west corridors. If a hurricane is threatening
Mississippi, that shuts the East off, leaving the west.

I don't think the NOLA evacuation problem will ever be solved - it's a
72 hour adventure.

[ROCK]

I seriously doubt that "all of Houston" was evacuated for Rita. I guarantee you that if the city would have taken a direct hit and flooded, which probably wouldn't have happened anyway... you would have seen that a lot of people stayed behind. You'll always have those who will stay behind... it's mindboggling, but true. Although, I'm not looking forward to the bedlam that will result in New Orleans the first time a big storm enters the gulf. Can't imagine anyone would stay again.

I believe that there are about 1.5 million people living in the evacuation zone for Houston, which is mainly south and east of the city. There are about 4 million people (or a bit more) in the greater Houston area. It's estimated that about 3 million evacuated (or tried to). They left 3 days before Rita hit. It was quite eerie around the city. I drove 20 miles to work and saw 1 other car on the freeway! We went biking toward downtown and it was deserted. Sure was great driving around with most of the people gone. But every business was closed. Couldn't get gas or go to the grocery store for 3 days before Rita. That was a bit ridiculous, as people should never have evacuated form the city limits of Houston. Houston, proper, isn't in a surge zone, except maybe for the area around the ship channel on the east side.

It was quite the accomplishment for our first time eventhough we had some traffic issues. Looking back, if I would have left on Thursday night or even Friday day I would have probably missed all the traffic.