SW Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Vaianu (11P)

[HURAKAN]

ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION, BEFORE MENTIONED BY FIJI, HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF TD 11F. LET SEE HOW BOTH SYSTEMS INTERACT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO COME.

[Yarrah]

How about a bit of Fujiwhara interaction between these two potential storms?
Anyway, seems like the Southern Hemisphere has come back to life after a short period of inactivity

[P.K.]

This has been mentioned in the latest forecasts for the area.

FQPS01 NFFN 091800
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Feb 092000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING NIL.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Feb 101800 UTC.

WEAK DEPRESSION D1 [1005 HPA] NEAR 17.5S 167W SLOW MOVING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F [1000 HPA] NEAR 16.4S 172.4W SLOW MOVING.
POSITION POOR. CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES
OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD [1002HPA] NEAR 15S 179W SLOW MOVING.

ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1 06S 160E 07S 170E 11S 180 TO 11F TO 20S
168W 25S 165W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN SQUALLY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 MILES OF CZ1.

CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 09S 145W 10S 130W 12S 120W SLOW MOVING. POOR
VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
180 MILES OF CZ2.

TROUGH T1 14S 160E TO D1 TO 16S 175E TO TD TO 11F SLOW MOVING. POOR
VISIBILITY IN FEW SHOWERS WITHIN 120 MILES SOUTH OF T1.

TROUGH T2 25S 158W 18S 162W 15S 163W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300 MILES OF T2 IN
THE AREA NORTH 22S.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS WITHIN 250
MILES OF CZ1. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWEST
SWELLS.

[Coredesat]

[Yarrah]

It's a Tropical Depression now

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [1002 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 177W AT
092100 UTC MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON
GOESSTH/VIS WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C.
12F LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION. MAJOR CONVECTION IS DISPLACED ABOUT
HALF A DEGREE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC. CIMMS INDICATES
THAT THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS ABOUT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT THIS STAGE
BUT AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES SOUTHEAST IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A
DECREASING SHEAR ZONE. CURRENTLY, UKGC IS THE ONLY MODEL AWARE OF THE SYSTEM AND DEVELOPS IT IN FAVOUR OF 11F, FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST.
POTENTIAL FOR 12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

Let's see who becomes a cyclone first, 11F or 12F.

[P.K.]

The Met Office model is very keen on this developing!

FXXT01 EGRR 091835

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR SOUTH PACIFIC AND

SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEANS

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.02.2006

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :

14.3S 178.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 09.02.2006 14.3S 178.7W WEAK

00UTC 10.02.2006 14.3S 176.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.02.2006 14.2S 175.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.02.2006 16.3S 173.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 11.02.2006 17.7S 175.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.02.2006 17.7S 175.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.02.2006 18.2S 176.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 13.02.2006 20.0S 176.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 13.02.2006 20.8S 176.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 14.02.2006 22.8S 175.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 14.02.2006 24.2S 175.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 15.02.2006 26.1S 173.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 15.02.2006 29.0S 171.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

[Yarrah]

Well...the Met Office Model sure likes this tropical despression, can't deny that...

But it might as well be right, the conditions are quite favorable.

[Coredesat]

09/2052 UTC 14.6S 176.2W T1.0/1.0 94P

[P.K.]

FQPS01 NFFN 100600
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 5N to 25S between 160E and 180
and EQ to 25S between 180 and 120W
issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Feb 100800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNINGNIL.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Feb 110600 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [1000HPA] NEAR 14.5S 176.1W MOVING
EASTSOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 10/1001 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical depression 12F [999 HPa] centre was located near 14.0S
176.0W at 100900 UTC moving east 05 knots but expected to curve
southeast later. Position fair and based on latest SSMI, MTSTAT/EIR
with animation and peripheral surface reports. SST in the area is
about 29-30C.

Overall organisation has improved significantly with deep convention
erupting near the centre since the past 3 hours. Convective tops also
cooling but major band still remains to the east and northeast of
LLCC. 12F lies just south of upper [250 HPa] outflow, in a good
diffluent region. Dvorak analysis based on .3 wrap thus
2.0/2.0/D1.0/24hrs. PAT=MET=2.0. CIMMS indicates that the
environmental shear is about 20 knots over the system at this stage
but decreasing tendency in the path of 12F. 12F is expected to be
steered by the deep northwest wind flow. Most global models are
developing the system near 20 South but seems to be confused with
another depression [11F] further south of 12F.

Potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours is moderate to high.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued
around 101400 UTC.

[MiamiensisWx]

Is this the right system referred to in this thread?

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 10/1359 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical depression 12F [1000 HPa] centre was located near 14.1S
176.0W at 101200 UTC slow moving but expected to turn southeast
later. Position poor and based on MTSTAT/EIR with animation and
peripheral surface reports. SST in the area is about 29-30C.

Deep convention has now become detached and is lies just north of
LLCC. Convective tops continues cooling. Primary band still remains
to the northeast of system centre. 12F lies just south of upper [250
HPa] outflow, in a good diffluent region.
Dvorak analysis based on .30 on log10 spiral wrap gives
DT=PT=MET=2.0. YIELDS. 2.0/2.0/D1.0/24hrs. PAT=MET=2.0. CIMMS
indicates that the environmental shear is about 20 knots over the
system at this stage but decreasing tendency in the path of 12F. The
system is expected to be steered by the deep northwest wind flow.
Most global models are developing the system near 20 South, perhaps
merging with 12F with 11F located to the far south.

Potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours is moderate to high.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued
around 102000 UTC.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 10/2006 UTC 2006 UTC.

Correction to Advisory Number...

Tropical Depression 12F [1000 hPa] centre was located near 13.8S
176.3W at 101800 UTC slow moving. Position poor based on MTSTAT/EIR
with animation and peripheral surface reports.

LLCC difficult to locate under thick cirrus outflow. Convective tops
over llcc have warmed significantly past 12 hours. Main band located
about 1 degree to east of llcc. 12F lies just south of upper 250-hPa
outflow, in a diffluent region but strong shear of 20 to 25 knots.
Dvorak analysis based on .30 on log10 spiral giving a DT1.0. Thus,
T1.0/2.0/W1.0/24hrs. PT=1.5 and MET=2.0. The system is expected to be
steered gradually towards the south by a low-mid-level ridge to
southeast. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Global models differ in
future intensity and track.
Potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours is low to moderate.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued
around 110200 UTC.

[Coredesat]

10/2022 UTC 15.4S 174.3W T1.5/1.5 94P

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.2S 175.9W,
APPROXIMATELY 305 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 100529Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE REVEALS
AN AREA OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS COMPETING FORCES OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW WITH MODERATE SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[Coredesat]

TCFA has been issued!

11/0822 UTC 16.8S 174.5W T2.5/2.5 94P

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4S 174.2W TO 20.1S 174.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
110600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.6S
174.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S
174.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 174.2W, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 080527Z AMSU-B SATELLITE PASS DEPICT AN
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR A COMPLEX LOW LEVEL CIR-
CULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EXPOSED SECONDARY CIRCULATION IS ALSO
EVIDENT APPROXIMATELY 100 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE DISTUR-
BANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE. WHILE CURRENT AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT POLEWARD OF
THE LLCC, THE SHORT-TERM UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. DUE TO CONTINUED CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC AND FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW ALOFT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

[Coredesat]

Looking good. It seems to have absorbed 93P.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 11/0737 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 12F [997 hPa] centre was located near 16.9S
174.6W at 110600 UTC moving south-southeast 05 knots. Position fair
based on MTSTAT EIR with animation, latest and SSM/I data and
peripheral surface reports. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated
at 25 to 30 knots close to the centre increasing to 35 knots within
60 miles of centre in the next 6 to 12 hours.

Overall system organisation continues to improve since past 6 hours.
Primary band located just north and wraps around llcc. 12F still lies
just south of upper 250-hPa outflow, in a diffluent region. CIMMS
indicates 20 knots environment shear but decreased rapidly to south
of 12F. Dvorak analysis based on .50 wrap on log10 spiral giving a
T2.5. PT=2.0 MET=2.5 Thus, T2.5/2.0/D0.5/06hrs. The system is
expected to be steered generally towards the south by a mid-level
ridge to southeast. SST in the area is about 29-30C. System is
expected intensify while moving southwards due to diurnal influence
and decresing environment shear. Some global models agree on a future
southward track with further intensification. UKGC, EC curve 12F
slightly southwest before tracking it southwards.

The potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next
6 to 12 hours is high.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued
around 111400 UTC.

[Yarrah]

Vaianu is here

Gale Warning 013 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 11/1303 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [995hPa] centre was re-located near 17.4
South 174.9 West at 111200 UTC.
Position poor.
Repeat position 17.4S 174.9W at 111200 UTC.
Cyclone moving south at about 05 knots and expected to gradually
curve south-southwest later.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre increasing to
40 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours.

Expect winds over 33 knots within 60 miles of centre.

Forecast position near 18.0S 176.3W at 120000 UTC
and near 18.7S 177.3W at 121200 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. For RSMC Nadi: VOS
reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679
6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 012.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A6 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 11/1414 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [995hPa] centre was re-located near 17.4
South 174.9 West at 111200 UTC. Position poor and based on MTSTAT/EIR
with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 17.4S
174.9W at 111200 UTC. Cyclone moving south at about 05 knots and
expected to gradually curve south-southwest later. Cyclone
intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 35 knots
close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours.
Expect winds above 33 knots with 60 nautical miles of centre.

TC Vaianu's overall organisation continues to improve and is mainly
aided by diurnal changes and decreased shear aloft. LLCC still
difficult to locate and placed in the southeastern edge of deep
convection. Tops continues to cool and primary band now wraps tighter
and closer to llcc. The system still lies just south of upper 250-hPa
outflow. SST in the area is about 29-30C.
Dvorak analysis based on .65 wrap on log10 spiral giving a T3.0.
PT=MET=3.0 Thus, T2.5/2.0/D0.5/06hrs. The system is steered generally
towards the south by a mid-level ridge to southeast. Vaianu is
expected intensify while moving southwards. Some global models agree
on a future southward track with further intensification. UKGC, EC
curves TC Vaianu slightly southwest before tracking it southwards.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 120000 UTC near 18.0S 176.3W mov SW at 08kt with 45 kt
close to the centre.
24hrs valid at 121200 UTC near 18.7S 177.3W mov SW at 05kt with 55 kt
close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 130000 UTC near 20.1S 176.6W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt
close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 21.0S 176.1W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt
close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU
will be issued around 112000 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110751ZFEB2006//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 174.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 174.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.1S 175.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.0S 175.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.9S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.7S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.2S 174.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 174.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING POLEWARD
WHILE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CURVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE RE-ORIENTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE STORM. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS AS IT ENTERS A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MAINTAINS FAVORABLE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, A REGION OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
POLEWARD OF TC 11P WILL LIMIT THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 110751Z FEB 06 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 110800). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z
AND 121500Z.



TC 11P FORMS IN THE SW PACIFIC. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.