Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Johnny]

Tyler, you did say that we won't hit 50 tomorrow. Here are a couple of quotes from you.....

Rain tommorow, cold day saturday with highs in the mid to upper 40s


Saturday: Cold. Cloudy in the morning, then partial clearing in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with wind chills in the 30s. Bundle up!


The only thing I have a problem with, is they fail to mention falling temps into the 40's friday, and they also have saturday's highs to high. We won't reach 50, you can count on that.

[fwbbreeze]

Why don't we just stop with the back and forth bickering and just wait and see what it's going to do. I'm tired of watching this thread.

fwbbreeze

[gboudx]

UPDATE FOR DALLAS FORT WORTH AREA::: looks like residents of dallas fort worth especially the northern parts along and north of 1 20 will see some light snow/sleet this afternoon, gainsville a north Dallas suberb has already changed to 34 degrees with light snow, dallas fort worth fell from the mid 50s to the mid 40s in 1 hour and continue to drop already low 40s in ft.worth, the NWS have a 50 to 60 percent chance of snow for the Dallas Fort worth area they just have straight up snow /sleet mix not a snow/rain mix they just updated from snow/rain to snow/sleet minutes ago... gainsville is only 1 hr. north of Dallas and is not to high in elevation about 700ft. the same as Dallas.. the most interesting part is their might be lightning and thunder sleet .. lightning strikes have already been reported in lubbock and are moving west.. i expect winter precip to start mixing in in the afternoon around 3 or 4.. temps are dropping like a rock ! every minute! anybody have any updates???

I don't know where you were seeing a 40-50% chance of sleet/snow, but all I see is a chance of rain. I just got back from lunch and my car temp gauge said 43. It was 54 when I get in around 9am.

[Tyler]

Tyler, you did say that we won't hit 50 tomorrow. Here are a couple of quotes from you.....

Rain tommorow, cold day saturday with highs in the mid to upper 40s


Saturday: Cold. Cloudy in the morning, then partial clearing in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with wind chills in the 30s. Bundle up!


The only thing I have a problem with, is they fail to mention falling temps into the 40's friday, and they also have saturday's highs to high. We won't reach 50, you can count on that.

I admited I will likely bust in a post I just posted. Sorry guys.

"Yes, the air isn't as cold as I thought it was going to be, but its still not going to be as warm as ya'll think its going to be. Good radiational cooling Saturday night will yield mid 20's for areas north of IH-10. If I bust, I'll eat crow!"

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Why don't we just stop with the back and forth bickering and just wait and see what it's going to do. I'm tired of watching this thread.

Wait a minute. You called me out for "bashing" the NWS and now you are accusing some of us of bickering. Mam, if you look at my orginal post, I was just pointing out some inconsistencies by the different offices that even a non Met can point out and see they have. At the same time I praised some others that have been consistent not just during this upcoming cold snap, but other weather events too.

Again not bashing.

[CajunMama]

Why don't we just stop with the back and forth bickering and just wait and see what it's going to do. I'm tired of watching this thread.

Wait a minute. You called me out for "bashing" the NWS and now you are accusing some of us of bickering. Mam, if you look at my orginal post, I was just pointing out some inconsistencies by the different offices that even a non Met can point out and see they have. At the same time I praised some others that have been consistent not just during this upcoming cold snap, but other weather events too.

Again not bashing.

Did I ever say I was calling YOU out? Hmmm, let me go back and look...nope, don't see your name there.

[Johnny]

Tyler, I was jut funnin' with you a bit. I do think the clouds will clear out alot earliar than perviously thought. Because of this, this is the only reason why/if southeast, Texas hits the low to mid 50's tomorrow. If the cloud cover would stick around for most of the day tomorrow, lower to mid 40's would of been a very real possibility. IMO, EWG and yourself did a very good job with this cold air. The cold front isn't even here yet. Let's see what happens. My numbers will look like this for Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Conroe - 25-27

IAH - 27 -29

Downtown - 29 - 31

Galveston - 33-35

I do think Conroe does have a chance to get a few degrees colder, especially where I live which is about 8 miles west of Conroe. I think I will hit 23.

How much longer till the front hits Montgomery County?

[Tyler]

Tyler, I was jut funnin' with you a bit. I do think the clouds will clear out alot earliar than perviously thought. Because of this, this is the only reason why/if southeast, Texas hits the low to mid 50's tomorrow. If the cloud cover would stick around for most of the day tomorrow, lower to mid 40's would of been a very real possibility. IMO, EWG and yourself did a very good job with this cold air. The cold front isn't even here yet. Let's see what happens. My numbers will look like this for Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Conroe - 25-27

IAH - 27 -29

Downtown - 29 - 31

Galveston - 33-35

I do think Conroe does have a chance to get a few degrees colder, especially where I live which is about 8 miles west of Conroe. I think I will hit 23.

How much longer till the front hits Montgomery County?

Thanks Johnny. Good numbers! I'm going with 26 at IAH. Being bold, but I think its a real possibility.

Front just passed through College Station, the front should be through Montgomery during the next hour.

[Johnny]

The front just started moving through Navasota. I think I will start feeling the effects of it at my house in about 45 minutes. I work off of Rayford/Sawdust so it will be longer before we feel it here. I'm fixing to head to the house in about 30 minutes. By the time I get home it will be pushing through.

[Tyler]

Also, watchout for some thunderstorms developing to our W and SW. These could become some hail producers...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... khgx.shtml

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Why don't we just stop with the back and forth bickering and just wait and see what it's going to do. I'm tired of watching this thread.

Wait a minute. You called me out for "bashing" the NWS and now you are accusing some of us of bickering. Mam, if you look at my orginal post, I was just pointing out some inconsistencies by the different offices that even a non Met can point out and see they have. At the same time I praised some others that have been consistent not just during this upcoming cold snap, but other weather events too.

Again not bashing.

Did I ever say I was calling YOU out? Hmmm, let me go back and look...nope, don't see your name there.

I apologize. IT was not you, it was another poster. You just kind of aggreed with it. Peace.

[Johnny]

So is this the longest thread in Storm2k history? lol

[Tyler]

There was a Pacific NW weather thread that used to be really popular (back when all I did was lurk), and that went to 300+ pages.

[CajunMama]

Nah...my bar (hic) thread over in Community Forum is (hic) longer

[southerngale]

Tyler, you did say that we won't hit 50 tomorrow. Here are a couple of quotes from you.....

Rain tommorow, cold day saturday with highs in the mid to upper 40s


Saturday: Cold. Cloudy in the morning, then partial clearing in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with wind chills in the 30s. Bundle up!


The only thing I have a problem with, is they fail to mention falling temps into the 40's friday, and they also have saturday's highs to high. We won't reach 50, you can count on that.

I admited I will likely bust in a post I just posted. Sorry guys.

"Yes, the air isn't as cold as I thought it was going to be, but its still not going to be as warm as ya'll think its going to be. Good radiational cooling Saturday night will yield mid 20's for areas north of IH-10. If I bust, I'll eat crow!"

I think the point here is that all week when the NWS kept showing highs in the 50's for tomorrow, some of y'all were criticizing them for doing so, some of it pretty harshly. It looks like they may be correct. (of course we won't know until tomorrow)
They didn't just go by what the models were saying, but use other means of coming to their conclusion. They've taken a lot of flack for that. IMO, instead of matter-of-factly stating over and over how wrong they are and how bad they will bust (particularly so many days out), perhaps just say that you think they are wrong and why, and then continue on with your analysis. It makes you look better anyway, even if you're wrong.

That's MY opinion.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Also, watchout for some thunderstorms developing to our W and SW. These could become some hail producers...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... khgx.shtml

its hailing at my house right now! small...but still hail.

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest accuweather forecast is calling for 52F/25F for tomorrow...so mid 20s are still not out of the forecast. As Tyler has said...the cold air will lag behind the initial cold front...so do not expect to see cold numbers until tomorrow. Also...radiational cooling can do things that you would not expect. A REALLY dry night with clear skies and calm winds can lower you all the way to near the dewpoint.

[Tyler]

Really!? Awesome. I'm about to get whalloped as well... Geez.

[Portastorm]

No hail here in the state capitol but it is feeling VERY blustery outside. North winds gusty and light rain still with air temp of 48... after walking 7 blocks during lunch downtown, I can tell you it feels like winter again here in Austin.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Really!? Awesome. I'm about to get whalloped as well... Geez.

looks like the hail came from some of those pre-squall line storms too...I might see some more with the main line. Watch out Houstonions!