AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
445 AM CST MON FEB 6 2006
.DISCUSSION...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL NORTH TEXAS BY
SUNRISE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ALONG WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE WIND
ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE FOR TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY OVERNIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOUTH WINDS AND A SLIGHT WARM
UP IS IN STORE ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH A LARGE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SURGES OF COLD AIR TO MOVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND ACROSS TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOME OVERRUNNING IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING WHERE IT IS PRECIPITATING...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS.
MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
REACHING INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
North Texas Winter Weather Outlook/Updates 2005-06
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
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CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2006
.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD EAST
TEXAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE EAST/NORTHEAST COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS...WITH A STRONG VORT MAX PROGGED TO DIVE TOWARD THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE DAY...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAINTAIN WIND
SPEEDS IN THE 5-15 MPH RANGE ON THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE A WEAKER
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE
RED RIVER COUNTIES. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
AS PRESSURE FALLS BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO/COLORADO. HOWEVER...A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE 50S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF/CMC/UKMET SUITES...AS
WELL AS FROM THE GFSLR...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF CANADA BY LATE
WEEK...WITH VERY COLD AIR PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES AS A RESULT. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIRMASS...WITH THE CMC GUIDANCE THE COLDEST
AND THE GFSLR GUIDANCE THE WARMEST. THE TRUE STRENGTH OF THE
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...WITH A
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THOSE EXPERIENCED WITH
THE OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR LAST DECEMBER. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUTOFF
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME SHEARED AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE
FORECASTED TREND OF LOWER POPS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THERE WILL ONLY
BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHEN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND THIS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
WEAK LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT ONLY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND
ANY ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR BOTH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...WITH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2006
.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD EAST
TEXAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE EAST/NORTHEAST COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS...WITH A STRONG VORT MAX PROGGED TO DIVE TOWARD THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE DAY...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAINTAIN WIND
SPEEDS IN THE 5-15 MPH RANGE ON THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE A WEAKER
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE
RED RIVER COUNTIES. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
AS PRESSURE FALLS BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO/COLORADO. HOWEVER...A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE 50S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF/CMC/UKMET SUITES...AS
WELL AS FROM THE GFSLR...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF CANADA BY LATE
WEEK...WITH VERY COLD AIR PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES AS A RESULT. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIRMASS...WITH THE CMC GUIDANCE THE COLDEST
AND THE GFSLR GUIDANCE THE WARMEST. THE TRUE STRENGTH OF THE
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...WITH A
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THOSE EXPERIENCED WITH
THE OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR LAST DECEMBER. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUTOFF
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME SHEARED AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE
FORECASTED TREND OF LOWER POPS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THERE WILL ONLY
BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHEN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND THIS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
WEAK LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT ONLY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND
ANY ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR BOTH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...WITH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
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CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
411 AM CST WED FEB 8 2006
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
IT.
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND MERGE WITH THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS FOR
THIS EVENT. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK...AND THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED.
CHANCE POPS SEEMED SUFFICIENT FOR NOW AS ISENTROPIC PROGS ARE NOT
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. MORE COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...DROPPING LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S AT
MOST LOCATIONS.
GFS IS STILL SHOWING ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AFFECTING
NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS QPF OVER NORTH
TEXAS... WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN CWA...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
411 AM CST WED FEB 8 2006
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
IT.
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND MERGE WITH THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS FOR
THIS EVENT. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK...AND THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED.
CHANCE POPS SEEMED SUFFICIENT FOR NOW AS ISENTROPIC PROGS ARE NOT
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. MORE COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...DROPPING LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S AT
MOST LOCATIONS.
GFS IS STILL SHOWING ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AFFECTING
NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS QPF OVER NORTH
TEXAS... WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN CWA...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
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CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
543 AM CST THU FEB 9 2006
.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST. STRONG CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST TOMORROW AND PHASE WITH THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. THE GFS AND ETA...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS...ALL INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT OVER NORTH TEXAS
ON FRIDAY...AS THE CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES AND AN ARCTIC FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. POPS WERE DRAMATICALLY INCREASED AS A
RESULT. ISENTROPIC PARAMETERS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED...AND RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY...ENDING BY THE
AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE CWA. Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE
SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER PW VALUES ARE AT
LEAST AN INCH OVER MOST OF THE CWA. A 40-50 KT LLJ...AS WELL AS 8
DEGREE C DEWPOINTS AT 850MB...WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL WAA
INCREASES AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. VERY COLD
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE UPPER 40S IN THE METROPLEX AND THE LOWER 50S IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA. LIKEWISE...A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA SUNDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE BASE OF THE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EAST ROTATES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
A FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. DESPITE THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO
THE 60S BY MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE OR QPF AT THIS TIME.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
543 AM CST THU FEB 9 2006
.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST. STRONG CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST TOMORROW AND PHASE WITH THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. THE GFS AND ETA...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS...ALL INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT OVER NORTH TEXAS
ON FRIDAY...AS THE CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES AND AN ARCTIC FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. POPS WERE DRAMATICALLY INCREASED AS A
RESULT. ISENTROPIC PARAMETERS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED...AND RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY...ENDING BY THE
AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE CWA. Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE
SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER PW VALUES ARE AT
LEAST AN INCH OVER MOST OF THE CWA. A 40-50 KT LLJ...AS WELL AS 8
DEGREE C DEWPOINTS AT 850MB...WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL WAA
INCREASES AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. VERY COLD
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE UPPER 40S IN THE METROPLEX AND THE LOWER 50S IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA. LIKEWISE...A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA SUNDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE BASE OF THE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EAST ROTATES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
A FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. DESPITE THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO
THE 60S BY MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE OR QPF AT THIS TIME.
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CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
236 PM CST THU FEB 9 2006
.DISCUSSION...
A LOT OF ACTION COMING UP OVER NORTH TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW NOW
SOUTH OF ARIZONA WILL WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT ACROSS THE RED RIVER
AREA. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR FRONTOGENESIS OVER TEXAS
AND I EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
EVENING BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SPREADING OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA. LAPSE RATES LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. AS LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD PRECIP WILL SHUT OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAJOR CHANGE IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE MENTION OF BRIEF VERY
LIGHT SLEET AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. AS IS THE USUAL CASE IN
NORTH TEXAS...IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE IF THE DRYING OR THE
COOLING HAPPENS FIRST. WE DO NOT (REPEAT NOT) EXPECT ENOUGH WINTER
PRECIP TO ACCUMULATE OR CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS...THERE MAY NOT EVEN BE
A CHANGEOVER IF THE DRYING OCCURS QUICKER THAN THE COOLING. THE
GROUND IS FAIRLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ANYWAY AND WILL HELP
QUICKLY MELT ANYTHING THAT MAY REACH THE GROUND.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT FRIDAY AFTERNOON PLUS LOWERED
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER AND A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF CWA WAS ISSUED. EXPECT LESS
RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST AND THAT WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY MODERATE THE
FIRE DANGER BECAUSE DEAD VEGETATION WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT DUE TO
THE DRY WIND. ON SATURDAY A PULSE OF COLDER DRIER AIR PUSHES
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND DROPPING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SATURDAY. IF SOME AREAS GET A LOT OF RAIN...A RED FLAG
WARNING MAY NOT BE NEEDED EVERYWHERE SATURDAY.
SUNDAY MORNING STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST IN QUITE A WHILE WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
(LOW POPS) WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PROGGED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
236 PM CST THU FEB 9 2006
.DISCUSSION...
A LOT OF ACTION COMING UP OVER NORTH TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW NOW
SOUTH OF ARIZONA WILL WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT ACROSS THE RED RIVER
AREA. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR FRONTOGENESIS OVER TEXAS
AND I EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
EVENING BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SPREADING OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA. LAPSE RATES LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. AS LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD PRECIP WILL SHUT OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAJOR CHANGE IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE MENTION OF BRIEF VERY
LIGHT SLEET AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. AS IS THE USUAL CASE IN
NORTH TEXAS...IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE IF THE DRYING OR THE
COOLING HAPPENS FIRST. WE DO NOT (REPEAT NOT) EXPECT ENOUGH WINTER
PRECIP TO ACCUMULATE OR CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS...THERE MAY NOT EVEN BE
A CHANGEOVER IF THE DRYING OCCURS QUICKER THAN THE COOLING. THE
GROUND IS FAIRLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ANYWAY AND WILL HELP
QUICKLY MELT ANYTHING THAT MAY REACH THE GROUND.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT FRIDAY AFTERNOON PLUS LOWERED
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER AND A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF CWA WAS ISSUED. EXPECT LESS
RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST AND THAT WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY MODERATE THE
FIRE DANGER BECAUSE DEAD VEGETATION WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT DUE TO
THE DRY WIND. ON SATURDAY A PULSE OF COLDER DRIER AIR PUSHES
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND DROPPING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SATURDAY. IF SOME AREAS GET A LOT OF RAIN...A RED FLAG
WARNING MAY NOT BE NEEDED EVERYWHERE SATURDAY.
SUNDAY MORNING STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST IN QUITE A WHILE WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
(LOW POPS) WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PROGGED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
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TexasStooge
- Category 5
- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
- Contact:
More rain, Arctic cold headed to North Texas
WFAA.com Staff
Don't put away those winter coats and umbrellas just yet.
Forecasters say plunging temperatures are expected this weekend in North Texas, which so far has had a record warm winter.
"Temperatures will probably reach the official high at midnight tonight, and then go down from there," said WFAA ABC 8 meteorologist Steve McCauley. He added that the mercury would plummet from 47 degrees down to 28 by Friday night.
Brisk northerly winds from the Arctic air mass will make it feel much colder on Friday afternoon.
The cold weather will be accompanied by more much-needed rain. "We are going to see a near 100 percent of coverage of rainfall for tomorrow," McCauley said, noting that not all areas would see heavy rainfall.
McCauley forecast that the immediate Dallas-Fort Worth area would receive from one-quarter to one-half inch of rain, with most of it falling on Friday morning. Higher totals are possible in areas east of Interstate 35.
Rain totals are slightly above average so far in 2006, but the region is still facing drought conditions because of the precipitation deficit last year.
McCauley said conditions for the rest of the weekend will be more season-appropriate. "We are setting ourselves up for a very hard freeze this weekend," he said. Sensitive garden vegetation should be shielded from the cold and outdoor animals will need shelter.
Saturday night's low will be in the low 20s.
A warming trend begins on Sunday, McCauley said, and Monday's high will reach 61 degrees.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday Forecast for Dallas/Ft. Worth area via NWS:
50°F
WFAA.com Staff
Don't put away those winter coats and umbrellas just yet.
Forecasters say plunging temperatures are expected this weekend in North Texas, which so far has had a record warm winter.
"Temperatures will probably reach the official high at midnight tonight, and then go down from there," said WFAA ABC 8 meteorologist Steve McCauley. He added that the mercury would plummet from 47 degrees down to 28 by Friday night.
Brisk northerly winds from the Arctic air mass will make it feel much colder on Friday afternoon.
The cold weather will be accompanied by more much-needed rain. "We are going to see a near 100 percent of coverage of rainfall for tomorrow," McCauley said, noting that not all areas would see heavy rainfall.
McCauley forecast that the immediate Dallas-Fort Worth area would receive from one-quarter to one-half inch of rain, with most of it falling on Friday morning. Higher totals are possible in areas east of Interstate 35.
Rain totals are slightly above average so far in 2006, but the region is still facing drought conditions because of the precipitation deficit last year.
McCauley said conditions for the rest of the weekend will be more season-appropriate. "We are setting ourselves up for a very hard freeze this weekend," he said. Sensitive garden vegetation should be shielded from the cold and outdoor animals will need shelter.
Saturday night's low will be in the low 20s.
A warming trend begins on Sunday, McCauley said, and Monday's high will reach 61 degrees.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday Forecast for Dallas/Ft. Worth area via NWS:
50°F
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TexasStooge
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
838 PM CST THU FEB 9 2006
.UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY WITH A FEW CHANGES...MAINLY TO THE
FRIDAY PERIOD. WILL PUSH PRECIP TONIGHT TO MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND AM ADJUSTING PRECIP TYPES FOR TOMORROW. CURRENT DATA
INDICATE A LESSENED CHANCE FOR SLEET TOMORROW SO WILL BE REMOVING IT
FROM THE FORECAST. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF FLURRIES ALTHOUGH IT IS
BEGINNING TO LOOK LESS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
SO ANY SNOW FLAKES THAT WOULD FALL WOULD MELT QUICKLY. STRONG WINDS
AND LOW MIN HUMIDITIES WILL BE MAIN PROBLEMS TOMORROW. WILL SCALE
BACK RED FLAG WARNING AREA SLIGHTLY DUE TO HIGHER MIN HUMIDITIES
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WARNED AREA. AS FOR THE
WINDS...STRONG...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL START IN THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS BY LATE MORNING AND SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA TO COINCIDE IN TIME WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
600 PM...
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST WITH A RAPID MOISTENING OF THE LOWER
LEVELS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY CONTINUED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MVFR CIGS OCCURRING AROUND 9Z WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. LAPSE RATES AND INITIAL DRY AIR ALOFT MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER EARLY. HOWEVER AFTER SUNRISE...
PROFILE BECOMES MOIST ADIABATIC AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THUNDER AT METROPLEX SITES. IFR
CONDITIONS AND PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM 11Z TO
16Z. OTHERWISE...DEEPENING COLD LAYER BEHIND SURFACE FROPA AROUND
14Z AND 850 FROPA AROUND 17Z WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVING CIGS/VIS WITH
RAIN ENDING BY NOON. N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. PUT NO
MENTION OF -SN IN TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW PROBABILITY AND SURFACE TEMPS
SHOULD BE TOO WARM (I.E. FREEZING LEVEL TOO HIGH) FOR FLAKES TO
REACH THE SURFACE AT TAF SITES.
TR/92
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A LOT OF ACTION COMING UP OVER NORTH TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW NOW
SOUTH OF ARIZONA WILL WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT ACROSS THE RED RIVER
AREA. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR FRONTOGENESIS OVER TEXAS
AND I EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
EVENING BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SPREADING OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA. LAPSE RATES LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. AS LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD PRECIP WILL SHUT OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAJOR CHANGE IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE MENTION OF BRIEF VERY
LIGHT SLEET AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. AS IS THE USUAL CASE IN
NORTH TEXAS...IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE IF THE DRYING OR THE
COOLING HAPPENS FIRST. WE DO NOT (REPEAT NOT) EXPECT ENOUGH WINTER
PRECIP TO ACCUMULATE OR CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS...THERE MAY NOT EVEN BE
A CHANGEOVER IF THE DRYING OCCURS QUICKER THAN THE COOLING. THE
GROUND IS FAIRLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ANYWAY AND WILL HELP
QUICKLY MELT ANYTHING THAT MAY REACH THE GROUND.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT FRIDAY AFTERNOON PLUS LOWERED
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER AND A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF CWA WAS ISSUED. EXPECT LESS
RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST AND THAT WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY MODERATE THE
FIRE DANGER BECAUSE DEAD VEGETATION WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT DUE TO
THE DRY WIND. ON SATURDAY A PULSE OF COLDER DRIER AIR PUSHES
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND DROPPING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SATURDAY. IF SOME AREAS GET A LOT OF RAIN...A RED FLAG
WARNING MAY NOT BE NEEDED EVERYWHERE SATURDAY.
SUNDAY MORNING STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST IN QUITE A WHILE WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
(LOW POPS) WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PROGGED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
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TexasStooge
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
845 PM CST THU FEB 9 2006
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
845 PM CST THU FEB 9 2006
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL PRESENT A HAZARD.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
AGAIN NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY...USHERING
IN A WINDY AND COLDER AIRMASS. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF MIX OF
SNOW FLURRIES...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
GROUND. ALSO...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE
FRONT.
THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
LASTLY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO NORTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.
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CaptinCrunch
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
409 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING WEST TEXAS...
WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP NEAR LUBBOCK. LOOKS LIKE
SOME PRECIP MAY FINALLY BE REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE CWA...
ESPECIALLY WHERE REFLECTIVITY VALUES ARE EXCEEDING 30 DBZ. PRECIP
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE METRO AREA FROM 12Z TO 18Z. MODELS
AGREE THAT MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE METRO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME INCREASES. THICKNESS PLOTS
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NE CWA TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S...AND ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL MELT VERY QUICKLY.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE...AND A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY. IN ADDITION...
AS RAIN AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER ENOUGH IN THE NORTWESTERN COUNTIES TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING. AS MORE DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS MOVE
IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A PROBLEM FOR
MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY...AND THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...
WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
40S ALONG THE RED RIVER AND THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTH. A HARD
FREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER ALL OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT NORTH
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...AND STILL APPEARS TOO WEAK TO WARRANT ANYTHING
OTHER THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. ANOTHER...MORE IMPRESSIVE LOOKING
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS FEATURE FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUTTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT POPS IN THE FORECAST.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
409 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING WEST TEXAS...
WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP NEAR LUBBOCK. LOOKS LIKE
SOME PRECIP MAY FINALLY BE REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE CWA...
ESPECIALLY WHERE REFLECTIVITY VALUES ARE EXCEEDING 30 DBZ. PRECIP
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE METRO AREA FROM 12Z TO 18Z. MODELS
AGREE THAT MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE METRO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME INCREASES. THICKNESS PLOTS
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NE CWA TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S...AND ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL MELT VERY QUICKLY.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE...AND A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY. IN ADDITION...
AS RAIN AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER ENOUGH IN THE NORTWESTERN COUNTIES TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING. AS MORE DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS MOVE
IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A PROBLEM FOR
MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY...AND THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...
WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
40S ALONG THE RED RIVER AND THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTH. A HARD
FREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER ALL OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT NORTH
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...AND STILL APPEARS TOO WEAK TO WARRANT ANYTHING
OTHER THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. ANOTHER...MORE IMPRESSIVE LOOKING
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS FEATURE FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUTTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT POPS IN THE FORECAST.
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TexasStooge
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1003 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006
.UPDATE...
SOME UP REPORTS HAVE COME OUT OF AREAS FROM GRAHAM...NWWD TO GAINESVILLE
AS DEEP LAYER CAA ENSUES BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY ALONG
A SULPHUR SPRINGS...DENTON...WEATHERFORD...COMANCHE LINE. LOOKING
AT PARTIAL THICKNESS PROGS...RADAR...FRONT AND MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS
...RAIN WILL STILL BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE ALONG/N OF I-20...BUT HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF SLEET/FLURRIES TO MIX IN OCCASIONALLY BY LATE MORNING
/AFTER ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS INTERSTATE. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT OR
ACCUMULATIVE AS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHALLOW OUT THROUGH THE DAY
WITH LITTLE QPF-WISE. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO GET A FEW CALLS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN METROPLEX ABOUT THIS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE HELD. ALSO WILL HOLD RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE FAR NW
COUNTIES AS DRIER POLAR AIRMASS ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES SURGES
SWD INTO THESE AREAS BY 00Z SAT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING WEST TEXAS...
WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP NEAR LUBBOCK. LOOKS LIKE
SOME PRECIP MAY FINALLY BE REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE CWA...
ESPECIALLY WHERE REFLECTIVITY VALUES ARE EXCEEDING 30 DBZ. PRECIP
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE METRO AREA FROM 12Z TO 18Z. MODELS
AGREE THAT MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE METRO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME INCREASES. THICKNESS PLOTS
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NE CWA TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S...AND ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL MELT VERY QUICKLY.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE...AND A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY. IN ADDITION...
AS RAIN AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER ENOUGH IN THE NORTWESTERN COUNTIES TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING. AS MORE DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS MOVE
IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A PROBLEM FOR
MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY...AND THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...
WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
40S ALONG THE RED RIVER AND THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTH. A HARD
FREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER ALL OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT NORTH
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...AND STILL APPEARS TOO WEAK TO WARRANT ANYTHING
OTHER THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. ANOTHER...MORE IMPRESSIVE LOOKING
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS FEATURE FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUTTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT POPS IN THE FORECAST.
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TexasStooge
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CST MON FEB 13 2006
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-142145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
337 PM CST MON FEB 13 2006
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ALONG THE RED RIVER
AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS BOTH SATURDAY MORNING AND
SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AMOUNTS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING EACH
DAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
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TexasStooge
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
514 PM CST MON FEB 13 2006
.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS TAF CYCLE WITH SPEEDS 7-11KTS TONIGHT AND 13-18KTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VIS REMAINS VFR WITH SOME SCT250 PASSING
BY TONIGHT. 75
&&
.DISCUSSION...
400 PM.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL MODERATE
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TUES
THROUGH THURS. HUMIDITY WILL BE RETURNING...BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL BE BELOW 30 PERCENT IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EACH DAY. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER CONTROL...BUT FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY...BUT SW FLOW WILL HOLD IT
UP NW OF CWA...UNTIL STRONG CA HIGH APPROACHES. COLDEST AIR
CURRENTLY OVER NUNAVUT...WITH DEVELOPING ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE
ISLANDS OF NW TERRITORIES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET AS
THE HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF NW TERRITORIES.
INTENSIFYING RIDGING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL INDUCE STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN CANADA...SPILLING THE ARCTIC HIGH INTO
THE HIGH PRAIRIES OF CANADA. HIGH SHOULD BE 1050MB OR GREATER BY
THURSDAY. SURGE WILL PUSH CA/CP AIR OVER NORTH CENTRAL US TOWARD
TEXAS. FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS SHARPLY...WITH
REINFORCING CA AIR ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND...AS ARCTIC HIGH
PLUNGES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER TEXAS...WITH SUBTROPICAL FETCH
PROVIDING ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND OPPORTUNITY
FOR SEEDING AND LIGHT PRECIP. STILL TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR...AND THE EXTENT AND TYPE OF PRECIP. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT SUBFREEZING TEMPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX. CA AIR SHOULD BE THIN...WITH PRECIP PRIMARILY LIQUID. IN
SUBFREEZING AREAS...FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET COULD OCCUR. QPF
VERY LOW FOR NOW...BUT ANY AMOUNT OF ICE COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS. GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO FURTHER ASSESS AS
EVENT APPROACHES.
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TexasStooge
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
611 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2006
.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING BY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR WITH SOME MORNING LLWS AS INDICATED BY 50 KTS JUST
OFF THE DECK BY 88D VAD AND SOUNDING. LLWS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 15Z. 80
&&
.DISCUSSION...
418 AM...
WE HAVE GONE ABOVE MAVMOS TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART...UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE CURRENTLY
OCCURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE 30 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET IN THE
NORTH...MAINLY EARLY SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE ABOUT NEXT
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION.
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TexasStooge
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
420 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2006
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-151030-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
420 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2006
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
DANGEROUS GRASSLAND FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM PARIS...TO DALLAS...WACO AND TEMPLE. NO OTHER
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN...TO DALLAS...AND TEMPLE.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ALONG THE RED RIVER AND
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING EACH
DAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
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TexasStooge
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
511 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006
.AVIATION...
LITTLE BIT TRICKY FCST WITH STRATUS THIS MORNING WITH TIGHT
GRADIENT IN THE BL AS ACT...DFW...DAL TAF SITES ARE BKN-OVC MVFR
CIGS WITH AFW/FTW BEING GRAZED. WILL MAINTAIN PREVAILING VFR FOR
THOSE TWO SITES WITH TEMPO MVFR THRU 14Z...WITH OTHER SITES SEEING
MVFR CIGS THRU 16-18Z TODAY BEFORE DEEP MIXING OCCURS WITH JUST
SCT HI CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W MOVING ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY
THRU 00Z THURS. OTHERWISE...WNDS UP/DOWN THRU 18Z WITH LLWS
MENTIONED THRU 15Z FOR VEERED LLJ BTWN 40-50 KTS. AFOREMENTIONED
DEEP MIXING WILL THEN SUSTAINS S/SWLY FLOW 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY AT
THE SFC...WITH GSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS THRU 00Z. WE`LL FOLLOW THE
SAME PROCESS WITH THE STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY MORE ERN SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006/
DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT FORECASTS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
PATTERN CHANGES TO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW/QUASI-MCFARLAND FLOW OVER
THE U.S.. THIS CHANGE WILL BRING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO N TEXAS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BUT FIRST...ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM WINTER DAY IN STORE AS S TO SW FLOW INCREASES
THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS A SURFACE TROUGH INTENSIFIES
ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW A DRY LINE TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF N TEXAS BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW
HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS ALL SPELL ANOTHER HIGH
FIRE DANGER DAY SO CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD. HUMIDITY
WILL INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT...BUT MAY NEED ANOTHER RED FLAG
TOMORROW.
NOW BACK TO THE RETURN TO WINTER. WHILE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT UPON A PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK...DIFFERENCES IN JUST HOW
COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE CONTINUE TO MAKE THE FORECAST QUITE
CHALLENGING. IN GENERAL...PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. PROBLEM IS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS...MAINLY SAT AND SUNDAY MORNING...FOR
AREAS MOSTLY WEST AND N OF THE METROPLEX. MEXMOS HAS TRENDED A BIT
COOLER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...BUT GFS80 FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT WARMER. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
MOST OF THE FREEZING TEMPS...AND THUS THE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...ALONG AN NORTH OF A LINE FROM KPRX...KDTO...TO KSEP SAT
MORNING AND THEN N OF A LINE FROM COOPER...TO KTKI...KAFW...AND
KSEP ON SUN MORNING. DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF WARM NOSE SUGGEST
MAINLY FREEZING RAIN SAT...BUT POSSIBLY SOME MIX OF ZR/IP ON SUN
MORNING.
TEMPS LOOK TO MODERATE A BIT ON MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF CP/CA AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS TUE MORNING
AGAIN NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE RED RIVER. WL KEEP PRECIP LIQUID
ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS ON THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.
IN SUMMARY...A BIG COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP NORTH OF I-20 SAT
AND SUN MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS AS WE DO
NOT THINK THIS WILL BE A BIG WINTER EVENT...BUT SHOULD THE
MODIFYING ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVE COLDER THAN EXPECTED...THERE
COULD BE SOME ISSUES WITH ICE...MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
STAY TUNED.
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TexasStooge
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- Contact:
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
411 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-160000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
411 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THAT PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS
ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERMAN...DALLAS...TEMPLE LINE...DUE TO MUCH
DRIER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE...
STEPHENVILLE...FORT WORTH...MCKINNEY...PARIS LINE. SOME LIGHT SLEET
OR SNOW FLURRIES COULD MIX IN AS WELL NEAR THE IMMEDIATE RED
RIVER BY MONDAY MORNING AS WELL...AS VERY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MOVES
INTO NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AND LINGERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AT THE PRESENT TIME...THERE IS ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW COLD AND
DEEP THIS AIRMASS WILL BE...AND IF ANY FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND ONLY OCCUR BRIEFLY JUST
BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
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CaptinCrunch
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- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1130 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006
.UPDATE...
1130 AM CST
BRIEF UPDATE FOR TEMPORAL WORDING. CLOUDS MAY HANG IN THE EAST A BIT
LONGER. NW WINDS SURGING THROUGH SPS...EXPECT ASSOCIATED DRYLINE
PUSH TO IMPINGE ON WESTERN ZONES. CURRENT DEW POINT GRIDS LOOK GOOD.
INITIAL MIXING OF HIGH MOMENTUM ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD
YIELD THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS OF THE DAY...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST...KEEPING HIGH FIRE DANGER...EVEN IN MORE HUMID AREAS EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. DESPITE MOISTURE SURGE...AIR REMAINS VERY DRY ALOFT
AND DEEP MIXING WILL LIMIT RISE OF SFC DEW POINTS TODAY. 25
.PREV DISCUSSION...
333 AM CST
DIFFICULT FORECASTS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
PATTERN CHANGES TO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW/QUASI-MCFARLAND FLOW OVER
THE U.S.. THIS CHANGE WILL BRING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO N TEXAS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BUT FIRST...ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM WINTER DAY IN STORE AS S TO SW FLOW INCREASES THE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS A SURFACE TROUGH INTENSIFIES ACROSS
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW A DRY LINE TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF N TEXAS BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM
TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS ALL SPELL ANOTHER HIGH FIRE DANGER DAY SO
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE A BIT
TONIGHT...BUT MAY NEED ANOTHER RED FLAG TOMORROW.
NOW BACK TO THE RETURN TO WINTER. WHILE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT UPON A PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK...DIFFERENCES IN JUST HOW
COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE CONTINUE TO MAKE THE FORECAST QUITE
CHALLENGING. IN GENERAL...PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. PROBLEM IS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS...MAINLY SAT AND SUNDAY MORNING...FOR
AREAS MOSTLY WEST AND N OF THE METROPLEX. MEXMOS HAS TRENDED A BIT
COOLER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...BUT GFS80 FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT WARMER. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
MOST OF THE FREEZING TEMPS...AND THUS THE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...ALONG AN NORTH OF A LINE FROM KPRX...KDTO...TO KSEP SAT
MORNING AND THEN N OF A LINE FROM COOPER...TO KTKI...KAFW...AND
KSEP ON SUN MORNING. DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF WARM NOSE SUGGEST
MAINLY FREEZING RAIN SAT...BUT POSSIBLY SOME MIX OF ZR/IP ON SUN
MORNING.
TEMPS LOOK TO MODERATE A BIT ON MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF CP/CA AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS TUE MORNING
AGAIN NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE RED RIVER. WL KEEP PRECIP LIQUID
ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS ON THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.
IN SUMMARY...A BIG COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP NORTH OF I-20 SAT
AND SUN MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS AS WE DO
NOT THINK THIS WILL BE A BIG WINTER EVENT...BUT SHOULD THE
MODIFYING ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVE COLDER THAN EXPECTED...THERE
COULD BE SOME ISSUES WITH ICE...MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
STAY TUNED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1130 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006
.UPDATE...
1130 AM CST
BRIEF UPDATE FOR TEMPORAL WORDING. CLOUDS MAY HANG IN THE EAST A BIT
LONGER. NW WINDS SURGING THROUGH SPS...EXPECT ASSOCIATED DRYLINE
PUSH TO IMPINGE ON WESTERN ZONES. CURRENT DEW POINT GRIDS LOOK GOOD.
INITIAL MIXING OF HIGH MOMENTUM ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD
YIELD THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS OF THE DAY...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST...KEEPING HIGH FIRE DANGER...EVEN IN MORE HUMID AREAS EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. DESPITE MOISTURE SURGE...AIR REMAINS VERY DRY ALOFT
AND DEEP MIXING WILL LIMIT RISE OF SFC DEW POINTS TODAY. 25
.PREV DISCUSSION...
333 AM CST
DIFFICULT FORECASTS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
PATTERN CHANGES TO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW/QUASI-MCFARLAND FLOW OVER
THE U.S.. THIS CHANGE WILL BRING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO N TEXAS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BUT FIRST...ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM WINTER DAY IN STORE AS S TO SW FLOW INCREASES THE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS A SURFACE TROUGH INTENSIFIES ACROSS
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW A DRY LINE TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF N TEXAS BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM
TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS ALL SPELL ANOTHER HIGH FIRE DANGER DAY SO
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE A BIT
TONIGHT...BUT MAY NEED ANOTHER RED FLAG TOMORROW.
NOW BACK TO THE RETURN TO WINTER. WHILE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT UPON A PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK...DIFFERENCES IN JUST HOW
COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE CONTINUE TO MAKE THE FORECAST QUITE
CHALLENGING. IN GENERAL...PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. PROBLEM IS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS...MAINLY SAT AND SUNDAY MORNING...FOR
AREAS MOSTLY WEST AND N OF THE METROPLEX. MEXMOS HAS TRENDED A BIT
COOLER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...BUT GFS80 FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT WARMER. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
MOST OF THE FREEZING TEMPS...AND THUS THE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...ALONG AN NORTH OF A LINE FROM KPRX...KDTO...TO KSEP SAT
MORNING AND THEN N OF A LINE FROM COOPER...TO KTKI...KAFW...AND
KSEP ON SUN MORNING. DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF WARM NOSE SUGGEST
MAINLY FREEZING RAIN SAT...BUT POSSIBLY SOME MIX OF ZR/IP ON SUN
MORNING.
TEMPS LOOK TO MODERATE A BIT ON MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF CP/CA AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS TUE MORNING
AGAIN NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE RED RIVER. WL KEEP PRECIP LIQUID
ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS ON THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.
IN SUMMARY...A BIG COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP NORTH OF I-20 SAT
AND SUN MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS AS WE DO
NOT THINK THIS WILL BE A BIG WINTER EVENT...BUT SHOULD THE
MODIFYING ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVE COLDER THAN EXPECTED...THERE
COULD BE SOME ISSUES WITH ICE...MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
STAY TUNED.
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TexasStooge
- Category 5
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- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
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- Contact:
Code: Select all
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
503 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE OVER TAF SITES THRU 15-16Z...BEFORE GOOD
VERTICAL MIXING OCCURS...SHIFTING CURRENT GSTY...SLY FLO BTWN 15-
20 KTS TO SWLY AT 17-22 KTS SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 28-
30 KTS. VFR CONDS WILL RETURN AS WELL BY 16-18Z DUE TO
AFOREMENTIONED MIXING. OTRW...ARCTIC CD FNT OVER OVER NRN TX/OK
PANHANDLES TO REMAIN AT BAY UNTIL S/W TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES
SHUNTS EWD...LIFTING SFC RAPIDLY NEWD INTO MID MS VALLEY BY 00Z
FRI.
TIMING DIFFICULT WITH FROPA/WND SHIFT...BUT LIKELY 00Z-02Z FOR
D/FW AREA TAF SITES...THEN AFTER 03Z ACT VCNTY...WITH SATURATION
SLOWLY OCCURRING ON SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONTAL INVERSION. WILL GO WITH
VFR CIGS ATTM POST FROPA...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED ON FUTURE
FCSTS DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS N TEXAS BEFORE THE BOTTOM
DROPS OUT TONIGHT. RED FLAG WARNING ALREADY POSTED AND THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE TO KEEP GOING WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS TIGHT AS IT
ALREADY IS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX A BIT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO N TEXAS.
FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS OUR FAR EAST...THIS AFTN AND EVENING...BUT SEVERE WX IS NOT
EXPECTED...WITH CAPE LESS THAN 800 J/KG.
AS OF 3 AM...THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM KSTL TO KTUL TO JUST
N. OF KDHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH SPEED AND
ARRIVAL TIMING OF FRONT FOR N TEXAS...WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE RED RIVER BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM...HIT THE METROPLEX
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM...AND THE WACO AREA BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE N WITH THE FROPA...AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES IN A MATTER OF HOURS.
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE JUST HOW COLD THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WHEN IT ARRIVES VS. HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL. MOS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY COME BACK WITH LOWER TEMPS AND HIGHER
PRECIP...AND IN GENERAL WE HAVE FOLLOWED THAT TREND. PROBLEM NOW
BECOMES WEATHER WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH PRECIP AND BE COLD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH. WARM SW FLOW ALOFT STILL LOOKS TO
KEEP PRECIP TYPE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN...AND AFTER COORD WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE FEEL CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THAT WE WILL GET A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION DURING THE 4TH
PERIOD AND BEYOND. THUS...WE WILL LET ANOTHER MODEL RUN ARRIVE AND
CHARGE THE DAY SHIFT WITH THE BIG DECISION.
STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF WINTRY
PRECIP...WITH THE FIRST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NOON ON
SATURDAY...ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-20...AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND BROUGHT FREEZING RAIN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS PACKAGE...PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
THE BIG FREEZE MAY NOT LAST AS LONG AS INDICATED YESTERDAY...AS
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS MUCH WEAKER AND HIGHLY MODIFIED
ON MONDAY. THUS...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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CaptinCrunch
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- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
302 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTH TEXAS FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF A LINE FROM TEMPLE TO
GROESBECK TO PALESTINE. A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET IS EXPECTED OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND...
.A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY
EVENING WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.
FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTH AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL...SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GROUND TEMPERATURE AT THIS TIME IS VERY WARM BUT BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WILL ICE QUICKLY PRESENTING AN IMMEDIATE DANGER TO
DRIVERS. HOWEVER...ROADWAYS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN ICE FREE FOR A
FEW HOURS LONGER WHILE THE GROUND COOLS.
TXZ094-095-104>107-118>121-123-130>134-141>145-170515-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.060218T0000Z-060220T0000Z/
FANNIN-LAMAR-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-
KAUFMAN-RAINS-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-COMANCHE-MILLS-
HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BONHAM...PARIS...PLANO...GREENVILLE...
COMMERCE...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...
DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...EMORY...POINT...
EAST TAWAKONI...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...COMANCHE...DE LEON...
GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...
VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO
302 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OVER ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
302 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTH TEXAS FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF A LINE FROM TEMPLE TO
GROESBECK TO PALESTINE. A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET IS EXPECTED OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND...
.A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY
EVENING WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.
FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTH AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL...SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GROUND TEMPERATURE AT THIS TIME IS VERY WARM BUT BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WILL ICE QUICKLY PRESENTING AN IMMEDIATE DANGER TO
DRIVERS. HOWEVER...ROADWAYS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN ICE FREE FOR A
FEW HOURS LONGER WHILE THE GROUND COOLS.
TXZ094-095-104>107-118>121-123-130>134-141>145-170515-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.060218T0000Z-060220T0000Z/
FANNIN-LAMAR-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-
KAUFMAN-RAINS-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-COMANCHE-MILLS-
HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BONHAM...PARIS...PLANO...GREENVILLE...
COMMERCE...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...
DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...EMORY...POINT...
EAST TAWAKONI...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...COMANCHE...DE LEON...
GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...
VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO
302 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OVER ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
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TexasStooge
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Code: Select all
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1215 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING AND ARE AS OF 18Z VFR AT THE
FORECAST TAF SITES. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF
A TULSA...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHILDRESS LINE...WILL MOVE TO NEAR A
PARIS...DFW...ABILENE LINE BY 00Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND
20 KNOTS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 18Z. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE COLDER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAYBE STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD. #58
&&
.UPDATE...
1055 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006
ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THRU OKLAHOMA WITH VERY COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. STILL EXPECTING FROPA AROUND 02Z TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
QUITE STRONG...AND FELT THAT A WIND ADVISORY NEEDED TO BE ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THRU 00Z. NEW MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING COLDER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT TOMORROW AND THIS
WEEKEND. A WINTER WEATHER WATCH MAY NEEDED FOR AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS
ALONG THE RED RIVER. IT APPEARS THE METRO AREA WILL GET FREEZING
RAIN AND MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE SLEET...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY
BELOW WATCH CRITERIA. /13
&&
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 503 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006/
MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE OVER TAF SITES THRU 15-16Z...BEFORE GOOD
VERTICAL MIXING OCCURS...SHIFTING CURRENT GSTY...SLY FLO BTWN 15-
20 KTS TO SWLY AT 17-22 KTS SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 28-
30 KTS. VFR CONDS WILL RETURN AS WELL BY 16-18Z DUE TO
AFOREMENTIONED MIXING. OTRW...ARCTIC CD FNT OVER OVER NRN TX/OK
PANHANDLES TO REMAIN AT BAY UNTIL S/W TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES
SHUNTS EWD...LIFTING SFC RAPIDLY NEWD INTO MID MS VALLEY BY 00Z
FRI.
TIMING DIFFICULT WITH FROPA/WND SHIFT...BUT LIKELY 00Z-02Z FOR
D/FW AREA TAF SITES...THEN AFTER 03Z ACT VCNTY...WITH SATURATION
SLOWLY OCCURRING ON SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONTAL INVERSION. WILL GO WITH
VFR CIGS ATTM POST FROPA...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED ON FUTURE
FCSTS DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS N TEXAS BEFORE THE BOTTOM
DROPS OUT TONIGHT. RED FLAG WARNING ALREADY POSTED AND THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE TO KEEP GOING WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS TIGHT AS IT
ALREADY IS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX A BIT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO N TEXAS.
FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS OUR FAR EAST...THIS AFTN AND EVENING...BUT SEVERE WX IS NOT
EXPECTED...WITH CAPE LESS THAN 800 J/KG.
AS OF 3 AM...THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM KSTL TO KTUL TO JUST
N. OF KDHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH SPEED AND
ARRIVAL TIMING OF FRONT FOR N TEXAS...WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE RED RIVER BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM...HIT THE METROPLEX
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM...AND THE WACO AREA BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE N WITH THE FROPA...AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES IN A MATTER OF HOURS.
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE JUST HOW COLD THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WHEN IT ARRIVES VS. HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL. MOS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY COME BACK WITH LOWER TEMPS AND HIGHER
PRECIP...AND IN GENERAL WE HAVE FOLLOWED THAT TREND. PROBLEM NOW
BECOMES WEATHER WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH PRECIP AND BE COLD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH. WARM SW FLOW ALOFT STILL LOOKS TO
KEEP PRECIP TYPE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN...AND AFTER COORD WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE FEEL CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THAT WE WILL GET A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION DURING THE 4TH
PERIOD AND BEYOND. THUS...WE WILL LET ANOTHER MODEL RUN ARRIVE AND
CHARGE THE DAY SHIFT WITH THE BIG DECISION.
STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF WINTRY
PRECIP...WITH THE FIRST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NOON ON
SATURDAY...ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-20...AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND BROUGHT FREEZING RAIN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS PACKAGE...PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
THE BIG FREEZE MAY NOT LAST AS LONG AS INDICATED YESTERDAY...AS
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS MUCH WEAKER AND HIGHLY MODIFIED
ON MONDAY. THUS...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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