Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 08/0859 UTC 2006 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD [1003HPA] NEAR 17S 177W AT 080600 UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON MTSAT/IR WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS [ECMWF, UKGC, GFS, ETC] FAVOUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN FACT, UKGC AND THE GFS
FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF TWO VORTICITY CENTRES, THE SECOND ONE
BEING NEAR 20S 170W. CURRENTLY, THE TD NEAR 17S 177W IS A VERY
SHALLOW SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN A WEAK TROUGH WITH NO CONVECTION TO SPEAK
OFF. AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE WITH A VIGOROUS MONSOONAL FLOW AND CLOUD
BAND LIES FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER, CURRENT ENVRIONMENTAL CONDITIONS
[LOW SHEAR, UPPER DIFFLUENCE] ARE CONDUCIVE TO THE GROWTH OF ANY
DISTURBANCES ALONG THE TROUGH AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND THE TROUGH
BECOME LINKED.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
SW Pacific - TD 11
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P.K.
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Appears to have been upgraded.
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Feb 082000 UTC.
PART 1 : WARNING NIL.
PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Feb 091800 UTC.
******* CORRECTION: RE-LOCATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE
*******
WEAK DEPRESSION D1 [1004HPA] NEAR 20.5S 170.0E SLOW MOVING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F [1003 HPA] NEAR 15.5S 174.5W SLOW MOVING.
POSITION POOR.
ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1 03S 160E 08S 170E 14S 180 17S 170W 25S
165W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN SQUALLY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 250 TO 300 MILES OF CZ1.
CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 14S 165W 09S 155W 08S 145W 10S 130W 12S 120W
SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 MILES OF
CZ2.
TROUGH T1 16S 160E 17S 165E TO D1 TO 17S 180 TO 11F TO 20S 170W 25S
167W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN A FEW SHOWERS WITHIN 120 MILES
SOUTH OF T1.
TROUGH T2 15S 157W 20S 151W 25S 150W MOVING SOUTHWEST 05 KNOTS. POOR
VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250
MILES EAST OF T2.
TROUGH T3 17S 137W 22S 133W 25S 129W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 MILES OF T3.
STATIONARY FRONT SF 21S 162E 23S 170E 22S 180 25S 172W. POOR
VISIBILITY IN A FEW SHOWERS WITHIN 120 MILES SOUTH OF SF.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 35 KNOTS WITHIN 250
MILES OF CZ1. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWEST
SWELLS.
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Feb 082000 UTC.
PART 1 : WARNING NIL.
PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Feb 091800 UTC.
******* CORRECTION: RE-LOCATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE
*******
WEAK DEPRESSION D1 [1004HPA] NEAR 20.5S 170.0E SLOW MOVING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F [1003 HPA] NEAR 15.5S 174.5W SLOW MOVING.
POSITION POOR.
ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1 03S 160E 08S 170E 14S 180 17S 170W 25S
165W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN SQUALLY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 250 TO 300 MILES OF CZ1.
CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 14S 165W 09S 155W 08S 145W 10S 130W 12S 120W
SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 MILES OF
CZ2.
TROUGH T1 16S 160E 17S 165E TO D1 TO 17S 180 TO 11F TO 20S 170W 25S
167W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN A FEW SHOWERS WITHIN 120 MILES
SOUTH OF T1.
TROUGH T2 15S 157W 20S 151W 25S 150W MOVING SOUTHWEST 05 KNOTS. POOR
VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250
MILES EAST OF T2.
TROUGH T3 17S 137W 22S 133W 25S 129W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 MILES OF T3.
STATIONARY FRONT SF 21S 162E 23S 170E 22S 180 25S 172W. POOR
VISIBILITY IN A FEW SHOWERS WITHIN 120 MILES SOUTH OF SF.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 35 KNOTS WITHIN 250
MILES OF CZ1. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWEST
SWELLS.
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P.K.
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- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 08/2304 UTC 2006 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F [1003HPA] WAS RELOCATED NEAR 16.2S 172.3W AT
082100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON MTSAT/VIS WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT
29-30C.
ACCORDING TO RECENT IMAGES THE PRIMARY CENTRE SEEMS TO BE LOCATED
FURTHER EAST NEAR 16.2S 172.3W. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A SECONDARY
CIRCULATION NEAR 15.5S 174.5W. CONVECTION REMAINS DETACHED FROM
CENTRE AND IS ACTIVE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-SIRCLE. AN ACTIVE
CONVERGENCE WITH A VIGOROUS MONSOONAL FLOW AND CLOUD BAND ALSO LIES
TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A 250 HPA RIDGE IN
AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION AND IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
CIMMS SHOWS THAT 11F IS LOCATED NEAR AN AREA OF DECREASING ZONAL WIND
SHEAR.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS [ECMWF, UKGC, GFS, ETC] FAVOUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
POTENTIAL FOR 11F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 08/2304 UTC 2006 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F [1003HPA] WAS RELOCATED NEAR 16.2S 172.3W AT
082100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON MTSAT/VIS WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT
29-30C.
ACCORDING TO RECENT IMAGES THE PRIMARY CENTRE SEEMS TO BE LOCATED
FURTHER EAST NEAR 16.2S 172.3W. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A SECONDARY
CIRCULATION NEAR 15.5S 174.5W. CONVECTION REMAINS DETACHED FROM
CENTRE AND IS ACTIVE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-SIRCLE. AN ACTIVE
CONVERGENCE WITH A VIGOROUS MONSOONAL FLOW AND CLOUD BAND ALSO LIES
TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A 250 HPA RIDGE IN
AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION AND IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
CIMMS SHOWS THAT 11F IS LOCATED NEAR AN AREA OF DECREASING ZONAL WIND
SHEAR.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS [ECMWF, UKGC, GFS, ETC] FAVOUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
POTENTIAL FOR 11F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
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Coredesat
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.5S 172.9W,
APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEVELOPING DEEP CON-
VECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE AREA IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.5S 172.9W,
APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEVELOPING DEEP CON-
VECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE AREA IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 09/0902 UTC 2006 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F [1002HPA] NEAR 15.9S 172.5W AT 090600 UTC
SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON MTSAT/IR WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C.
11F IS LOCATED IN A DIFFLUENT REGION SOUTHEAST OF A 250 HPA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. CIMMS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT OF ABOUT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE SHEAR TENDENCY IS
ON A DECREASING TREND AS THE 250 HPA SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
IS MOVING SOUTH. DEEP CONVECTION HAS MUSHROOMED CLOSE TO THE LLCC IN
RECENT IMAGES. AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH A VIGOROUS MONSOONAL
FLOW AND CLOUD BAND TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THE
DEPRESSION. MOST GLOBAL MODELS [ECMWF, UKGC, GFS, ETC] FAVOUR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR 11F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 09/0902 UTC 2006 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F [1002HPA] NEAR 15.9S 172.5W AT 090600 UTC
SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON MTSAT/IR WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C.
11F IS LOCATED IN A DIFFLUENT REGION SOUTHEAST OF A 250 HPA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. CIMMS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT OF ABOUT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE SHEAR TENDENCY IS
ON A DECREASING TREND AS THE 250 HPA SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
IS MOVING SOUTH. DEEP CONVECTION HAS MUSHROOMED CLOSE TO THE LLCC IN
RECENT IMAGES. AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH A VIGOROUS MONSOONAL
FLOW AND CLOUD BAND TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THE
DEPRESSION. MOST GLOBAL MODELS [ECMWF, UKGC, GFS, ETC] FAVOUR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR 11F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
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Coredesat
TCFA issued!
WTPS21 PGTW 092030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/092021ZFEB2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9S 172.0W TO 18.9S 169.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 091730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.2S 171.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 16.2S 171.6W, APPROXIMATELY
120 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE POLEWARD AND EQUAT-
ORWARD DIRECTIONS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAX-
IMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MIN-
IMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 MB. DUE TO EXCELLENT
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
102030Z.//
WTPS21 PGTW 092030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/092021ZFEB2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9S 172.0W TO 18.9S 169.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 091730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.2S 171.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 16.2S 171.6W, APPROXIMATELY
120 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE POLEWARD AND EQUAT-
ORWARD DIRECTIONS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAX-
IMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MIN-
IMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 MB. DUE TO EXCELLENT
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
102030Z.//
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
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- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 09/2303 UTC 2006 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F [1000HPA] WAS RELOCATED NEAR 18.4S 171.6W AT
092100 UTC MOVING SOUTH 05 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR AND BASED ON
MTSAT/VIS WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE
AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C.
RECENT VIS IMAGES SHOW THAT 11F IS EXPOSED AND LIES FURTHER SOUTH
COMPARED TO THE 1800 UTC POSITION. THE 2100 UTC POSTION IS SUPPORTED
BY SURFACE REPORTS. THE CONVECTIVE BLOB FURTHER NORTH IS MAINTAINED
BY A 250HPA OUTFLOW AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE WHETHER THERE IS A
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY. RECENT SSMI PASSES
HAVE BEEN INCONCLUSIVE. CIMMS INDICATES THE LLCC OF 11F HAS MOVED
INTO A LOW SHEAR ZONE. AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH A VIGOROUS
MONSOONAL FLOW AND CLOUD BAND TO THE NORTH STILL SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF 11F AND 12F LOCATED FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. GLOBAL
MODELS [ECMWF AND NOGAPS] FAVOUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF 11F OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR 11F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MODERATE.
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 09/2303 UTC 2006 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F [1000HPA] WAS RELOCATED NEAR 18.4S 171.6W AT
092100 UTC MOVING SOUTH 05 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR AND BASED ON
MTSAT/VIS WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE
AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C.
RECENT VIS IMAGES SHOW THAT 11F IS EXPOSED AND LIES FURTHER SOUTH
COMPARED TO THE 1800 UTC POSITION. THE 2100 UTC POSTION IS SUPPORTED
BY SURFACE REPORTS. THE CONVECTIVE BLOB FURTHER NORTH IS MAINTAINED
BY A 250HPA OUTFLOW AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE WHETHER THERE IS A
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY. RECENT SSMI PASSES
HAVE BEEN INCONCLUSIVE. CIMMS INDICATES THE LLCC OF 11F HAS MOVED
INTO A LOW SHEAR ZONE. AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH A VIGOROUS
MONSOONAL FLOW AND CLOUD BAND TO THE NORTH STILL SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF 11F AND 12F LOCATED FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. GLOBAL
MODELS [ECMWF AND NOGAPS] FAVOUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF 11F OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR 11F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MODERATE.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
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- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
FQPS01 NFFN 100600
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 5N to 25S between 160E and 180
and EQ to 25S between 180 and 120W
issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Feb 100800 UTC.
PART 1 : WARNINGNIL.
PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Feb 110600 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F [1000 HPA] NEAR 18.5S 172.2W MOVING WEST 05
KNOTS. POSITION POOR. CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES
OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 60
MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 5N to 25S between 160E and 180
and EQ to 25S between 180 and 120W
issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Feb 100800 UTC.
PART 1 : WARNINGNIL.
PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Feb 110600 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F [1000 HPA] NEAR 18.5S 172.2W MOVING WEST 05
KNOTS. POSITION POOR. CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES
OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 60
MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 10/1017 UTC 2006 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 172.2W AT
100900 UTC MOVING WEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON
GOESSTH/IR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE
AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C.THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH OF THE
EXPOSED LLCC AND IS MAINTAINED BY A 250HPA OUTFLOW. CIMMS INDICATES
THE LLCC OF 11F HAS MOVED INTO A LOW SHEAR ZONE. AN ACTIVE
CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH A VIGOROUS MONSOONAL FLOW AND CLOUD BAND TO THE
NORTH STILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 11F AND 12F LOCATED
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS FAVOUR THE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
20S.
POTENTIAL FOR 11F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 10/1017 UTC 2006 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 172.2W AT
100900 UTC MOVING WEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON
GOESSTH/IR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE
AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C.THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH OF THE
EXPOSED LLCC AND IS MAINTAINED BY A 250HPA OUTFLOW. CIMMS INDICATES
THE LLCC OF 11F HAS MOVED INTO A LOW SHEAR ZONE. AN ACTIVE
CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH A VIGOROUS MONSOONAL FLOW AND CLOUD BAND TO THE
NORTH STILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 11F AND 12F LOCATED
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS FAVOUR THE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
20S.
POTENTIAL FOR 11F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
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- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
FQPS01 NFFN 101800
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Feb 102000 UTC.
PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Feb 111800 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F [1000 HPA] NEAR 19.5S 173.0W SLOW MOVING AND
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. POSITION POOR. CLOCKWISE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Feb 102000 UTC.
PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Feb 111800 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F [1000 HPA] NEAR 19.5S 173.0W SLOW MOVING AND
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. POSITION POOR. CLOCKWISE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
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Coredesat
TCFA cancelled - 94P is shearing 93P, and it's getting harder to locate 93P on satellite:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7S
171.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 172.1W, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT ENHANCE INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND DISSIPATING CONVECTION. WHILE WEAK TO MODERATE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE STILL EXISTS ABOVE THE SYSTEM, CONVECTION REMAINS
DISORGANIZED. THE LOCATION OF THE 101200Z LLCC DIFFERS BETWEEN THE
FIXING AGENCIES ARE NEARLY A DEGREE APART. THE CURRENT BEST TRACK
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING
DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004
MB. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 101530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO LACK OF
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE
DOMINANT CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHWEST, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7S
171.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 172.1W, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT ENHANCE INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND DISSIPATING CONVECTION. WHILE WEAK TO MODERATE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE STILL EXISTS ABOVE THE SYSTEM, CONVECTION REMAINS
DISORGANIZED. THE LOCATION OF THE 101200Z LLCC DIFFERS BETWEEN THE
FIXING AGENCIES ARE NEARLY A DEGREE APART. THE CURRENT BEST TRACK
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING
DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004
MB. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 101530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO LACK OF
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE
DOMINANT CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHWEST, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
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