Is Houston due?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Houston has seemed to escape the wrath of the tropics over the last many years. Yes, there are a few exceptions (Allison with 20+" of rain) and Rita (as well as a few others) with weak to moderate TS force winds...but as for a "true" hurricane...the city is due. The last time Houston recorded hurricane force gusts was in 1983 when Alicia brought 99mph gusts to Hobby and 77mph gusts to IAH and knocked out thousands of downtown windows...but even this event 23 years ago is NOTHING compared to what Houston has gotten in the past. One of the worst hurricane decades for Houston was the 1940s...and this current decade looks like it may be setting up to look quite similar (if things continue as they are going).

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/hurricanes/1940s_maps.htm
^^Hurricanes in Texas in the 40s (one of the 1943 storms produced gusts to 132mph in Houston!)^^

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/hurricanes/1930s_maps.htm
^^Also..take a look at the 30s. In 1932 a Cat. 4 hit Galveston dead on^^

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/hurricanes/1900s_maps.htm
^^No body can forget the 1900-1910 period either^^

http://www.wxresearch.com/thurlist.htm
^^Another great site for Texas hurricanes.^^

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/galveston.htm
^^Galveston Hurricane Info; Galveston averages a direct hit every 12-13 years...it has been 23.^^

http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/a ... m03jul.htm
^^VERY cool site on the 1943 "surprise" hurricane in Houston. Can you believe it! According to the site, there were 2+ hrs. of 85mph+ sustained winds in Houston during this storm with gusts to 130mph+. Could you imagine the damage this would do today?!^^

Looking at this pattern and the storms of the past...I would have to say BEWARE Houstonions...2006 may be the year of the BIG one.

[MiamiensisWx]

Yes... I think Houston, Galveston, and other areas of western and central Texas may very well get hit this year. I think southeast Florida, in addition, will get a major hit this year. Texas may very well get one, too.

[ROCK]

I have to agree that its been a long long time and the law of averages would suggest "we are due" if there is such a thing. Tremendous growth has happened since 83. West End, where I have a beach house, has exploded with new homes. Galveston, TX City, League City etc etc have also grown. If Rita would have tracked another 6 hours (guessitmating) to the west before her NW/N track to the coast, I believe the West End would have been no more even as a cat 3.

Personally, I am not looking forward to this year like I have in the past. Rita, took the wind right out of my sails with all the stress involved. I will be ready though like I haven't been in the past. Got the plylox, boards ready with a generator on standby. My advice to all would be to leave EARLY and book a hotel (if you are going to leave).......

On a side note, I work DT in a 30 story, (next door to the Chase Tower) building that lost approx 20 windows during Rita. This was without the loose gravel type roofs that caused most of the DT in Alicia. I can't imagine how many windows if we got hit again head on......

[JonathanBelles]

gavelston/Houston is due!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

In the late 1800s, Texas also got hit frequently. In fact, look at this storm. It reportedly made landfall near Matagorda Bay in Texas with sustained winds of 155MPH and a pressure of 925 millibars! The area arround Matagorda has grown hugely in recent years. Imagine if this storm happened today! Here is it's track...

[ROCK]

In the late 1800s, Texas also got hit frequently. In fact, look at this storm. It reportedly made landfall near Matagorda Bay in Texas with sustained winds of 155MPH and a pressure of 925 millibars! The area arround Matagorda has grown hugely in recent years. Imagine if this storm happened today! Here is it's track...

with that track and intensity today Corpus would be leveled....

[MiamiensisWx]

with that track and intensity today Corpus would be leveled....

So would Matagorda, an area that has seen huge growth in recent years. That area also contains many oil rigs. Truthfully, a storm like the 1886 hurricane would be catastrophic. The oil industry and communities would be REALLY devastated.

[Derek Ortt]

a word of caution regarding the historical hurricanes

Recent hurricanes shows that their winds likely are overstated. The reanalysis useda straight pressure to wind relation the vast majority of the time, and Katrina and Rita showed that a WPAC relation may be mroe appropriate for the northern GOM

[Stratosphere747]

with that track and intensity today Corpus would be leveled....

So would Matagorda, an area that has seen huge growth in recent years. That area also contains many oil rigs. Truthfully, a storm like the 1886 hurricane would be catastrophic. The oil industry and communities would be REALLY devastated.

Not sure where you are getting this huge growth figure for Matagorda county....

[KatDaddy]

The research spells out what I have known for years. Bottom line we are going on 23 years since a direct hit from a CAT 3 or greater along the Upper TX Coast. This is the longest timeframe between a direct hit with last time being Alicia as noted in the posts above. Rita was a very stressful event and should be a wake up call for all of us in the Houston-Galveston Areas. This year we may not be as lucky. Just take a look at LA, MISS, and FLA after this season. It would take years to recover and change our lives forever. I dread this upcoming season.

[vbhoutex]

I do not believe in due or overdue when it comes to tropical systems. NOLA was 40 yrs overdue since Betsy. Some might argue the MS Gulf coast was 37 yrs overdue since Camille(even though there were others since Camille). The unfortunate fact of the matter is that an area will get hit when and if the weather patterns are correct for it to happen. Statistically that does not happen too often in any one particular area, even though there are some areas that are obviously more vulnerable due to simple location(FL as an example). With that being said, I do see a trend Westward for GOM landfalls over the last several years that I find difficult to ignore. I too will be much more ready than I normally am(and I am more ready than the average Joe, even now). Last year knocked a lot of peoples rears to the ground and scared the crap out of the rest of us, I hope!!! Is Houston overdue? Maybe. Is Houston more vulnerable than previously? After last year, I am not sure. I hope those that got "caught" in the rush out of town last year do not make a mistake and stay in areas that could be affected by surge this year if we do indeed get hit. If anything like Katrina or Rita comes into this area in the "right" direction I don't even want to think about the aftermath!!!!!!

[tornadochaser1986]

i say maybe i think alot more east coast storms this year

[ROCK]

i say maybe i think alot more east coast storms this year

I would agree with you on that. but I think we will still see at least 3-5 GOM storms this season....

[Jim Cantore]

if the 1900 storm hit today the devestation in Galveston and Houston would be unimanginable

I think that area will get effected but not by a major hurricane

[Swimdude]

Yes Yes Yes Yes YES

Houston is overdue. I've been saying this since Tropical Storm Francis in 1998, as a Houston resident myself. Rita, I must admit, gave me a scare. But as someone who's fascinated in hurricanes, I do wish to at least experience one. Call me crazy. But I think I need to experience it before I can preach the true impacts of a storm. So 2006, bring it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yes Yes Yes Yes YES

Houston is overdue. I've been saying this since Tropical Storm Francis in 1998, as a Houston resident myself. Rita, I must admit, gave me a scare. But as someone who's fascinated in hurricanes, I do wish to at least experience one. Call me crazy. But I think I need to experience it before I can preach the true impacts of a storm. So 2006, bring it.

It is a life changing experience indeed. The first time you see a "true" eyewall of a storm you are completely amazed (even if only a Cat. 1). It is incredible to see everything in front of you lose power, and it is eerie to think that your city is inaccessible during the storm. No one is on the roads...in the air...or on the water. No body is outside. It is the most incredible people/technology silence ever...the only thing you hear is wind (and debri...and transformer pops at the beginning). It will change your life for sure once you live through one...and you will either a) long for the next storm or b) wish to never live through one again. They are natures most spectacular events.

[KatDaddy]

Yes its scary to feel the power of an eyewall. Alicia 83 brought only 80G100 MPH in her eyewall. Just imagine that compared to Andrew or Charley. Scary indeed my friends.

[Tyler]

Sure, why not...

[cajungal]

The same was said about New Orleans. It managed to go 40 years without a major hit. Last major direct hit before Katrina was in 1965 by Hurricane Betsy. I don't think there is a such thing as overdue or not. It just depends on how the atmosphere is setting up at the time. Houston is 50 miles inland. It would have to strike Galveston first.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I agree 100% with you Cajungal. By the same logic one could claim ANYWHERE that hasn't been hit say in the past 20 years is due, or even over due. Hell I could claim Labrador is due, because Gerda was still a minimum hurricane there in 1969, because it hasn't been hit in 36 years LOL. Of course it only gets hit by a weak hurricane less than once a century at most The atmosphere doesn’t have a memory.