Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Tyler]

Wow. the cold front will be here in 66-70 hrs. Finally! We are talking about the cold in the short term. It WILL be happening this time!

This will likely be just like an old fashioned blue 'norther. Temperatures will RAPIDLY drop as this strong arctic front moves through, with temps falling as much as 10 degrees in one hour across the area Saturday.

[Portastorm]

22 at IAH?

Jeff (pro met here on s2k) sent out a note this morning to his subscribers and says upper 20s but only if ideal radiational cooling exists, otherwise warmer.

Extreme, you're living up to your username!

[Tyler]

Now, this here will be the real deal...

Ensembles 0z...


http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 0_usbg.gif

aggiecutter, nice job forecasting this a couple of days ago. I didn't see it coming at first, but now I agree with ya'll. That could be winter's GRAND FINALE. GFS dropping another strong high in the long range, interesting stuff.

[Tyler]

22 at IAH?

Jeff (pro met here on s2k) sent out a note this morning to his subscribers and says upper 20s but only if ideal radiational cooling exists, otherwise warmer.

Extreme, you're living up to your username!

Wow, I'm suprised. 850 temps -6 to -8 across the area, arctic airmass, and yet we only see upper 20's? I don't think so. This morning, IAH saw the mid 30's, when upper 30's were forecasted, and this airmass was really not that cold at all, 850 temps around 2+. I think many are REALLY underestimating the strength of this airmass. Corpus Christi NWS is forecasting upper 20's for Victoria, I have NEVER seen IAH warmer than Victoria at night (except for X-mas '04, but that was just a crazy situation and weather pattern).

[Portastorm]

I better correct myself, Jeff said "20's north if I-10" if ideal radiational cooling exists, otherwise 30's. And that was for Sunday morning.

I look at the same model runs you guys do and it does seem to me that temps might be colder ... but my experience with guys like Jeff and Air Force Met, who get paid to study weather, is that they're usually pretty darn accurate.

Going on three years now on S2K, I have learned to trust their forecasts more than my own "take" on the situation.

[Tyler]

High on 12z GFS about 3MB stronger at 42 hours than 6z and 0z at the exact same time (GFS backtracking continues), intrestingly enough, the high is now stronger than on the 0z Euro!

Cold air now coming at a noticeably much better angle. Matches with the NAM now!

[Portastorm]

At the aiport, it said you guys hit 29.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KAUS.html

You guys would probably be around 20 next weekend.

Let me tell you about that. The ASOS station at the airport is notorious around these parts for really being off from the rest of the real world. I don't know if it's because it is in a depressed (geographically speaking) area or what but the reading from Camp Mabry is much more reliable and in keeping with other observed temps in the city.

By the way, case in point on this topic ... Austin Bergstrom ASOS showed an air temp of 30 degrees at around 1 a.m. this morning while Camp Mabry (about 5 miles away and near the city) showed 45 degrees. That is a 15-degree differential!

The Mabry readings are a lot more accurate than what the airport registers.

[Tyler]

At 54 hours, high still stronger than 6z, 1046MB over Montana on 12z at 54, 3MB stronger than 6z. Cold air again coming in a noticeably better angle.

[Tyler]

Wow, high pressure is now 5 MB STRONGER at 66 hours, and look how colder everything looks!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _066.shtml

[gboudx]

Accuweather has a low of 17 for my area Saturday night.

My forecast is that this thread hits 100 pages by the end of the weekend.

[Tyler]

Wow guys, BIG changes at 72 hours on 12z GFS. High is now 5MB stronger AND is centered in Colorado, instead of Montana on the 6z GFS.

Geez, this run is MUCH colder, its not even funny.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

Not to mention, snow northern AL, GA?

[Tyler]

One reason this high may be stronger is becuase the disturbance in the Pac NW does not show to cut into the ridge that much... Thus stronger ridge=stronger pressure, which equal MUCH colder solution for SE TX.

[Kelarie]

At the aiport, it said you guys hit 29.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KAUS.html

You guys would probably be around 20 next weekend.

Let me tell you about that. The ASOS station at the airport is notorious around these parts for really being off from the rest of the real world. I don't know if it's because it is in a depressed (geographically speaking) area or what but the reading from Camp Mabry is much more reliable and in keeping with other observed temps in the city.

By the way, case in point on this topic ... Austin Bergstrom ASOS showed an air temp of 30 degrees at around 1 a.m. this morning while Camp Mabry (about 5 miles away and near the city) showed 45 degrees. That is a 15-degree differential!

The Mabry readings are a lot more accurate than what the airport registers.

Yeah but Bergstrom is in a valley and there is always a differences, sometimes big. Which makes me question why they take the temperature for Austin, not in Austin. Someone tell me why they did that one?? Another brillant thought by some governement official....

[Tyler]

Its amazing how much difference a day makes. This run is AT LEAST 20 degrees COLDER for SE TX than yesterday's 12z run.

[Yankeegirl]

Bring it on... I just got a convertible, I guess its perfect timing so I cant use it... Figures!! Oh well....

[Tyler]

Lovely 850MB temp maps for all to enjoy:
NOTE: This run of the 12z GFS is MUCH colder.

Hour 60:


Hour 66:


Hour 72:


Hour 78: coldest point


Hour 84:

[Extremeweatherguy]

22 at IAH?

Jeff (pro met here on s2k) sent out a note this morning to his subscribers and says upper 20s but only if ideal radiational cooling exists, otherwise warmer.

Extreme, you're living up to your username!

well when it ends up hitting below 25 on Sunday morning at IAH...don't say I didn't warn you...

[Tyler]

Verging on -10C 850 temps now...

My only problem with this run, is it weakens the high to much from 72 to 78, which it did that last run as well, though it corrected itself, thus a colder look, now let see if it corrects itself again.

[Tyler]

Hour 90:


Hour 96: COLDEST HOUR FOR SE TX, WIDESPREAD 20'S


Hour 102:

[Tyler]

Also, if you've noticed, not only is the high stronger every run, BUT the coldest air is shifted westward as well!