Offical statement from NWS Flag in regards...........

[azsnowman]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NOUS45 KFGZ 071615 PNSFGZ PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 915 AM MST TUE FEB 7 2006 ...RECORD DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA... FOR THE PERIOD OF SEPTEMBER 1ST 2005 THROUGH FEBRUARY 6TH 2006... FLAGSTAFF HAS RECEIVED ONLY 2.49 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION (INCLUDING MELTED SNOW). THIS NOW SURPASSES THE PREVIOUS DRIEST AMOUNT WHICH WAS SET IN THE 1950-1951 SEASON. THE 2005-2006 PERIOD NOW REPRESENTS THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EVER RECORDED FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS WHICH BEGAN IN 1898. NORMALLY 10.43 INCHES SHOULD BE MEASURED IN THIS PERIOD. LAST YEAR...19.72 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAD OCCURRED DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. ONLY 1.6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL HAVE BEEN RECORDED FOR THE SNOW SEASON...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE THE LEAST AMOUNT EVER RECORDED TO THIS DATE IN HISTORY. THE PREVIOUS LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL RECORDED THROUGH FEBRUARY 6TH WAS 2.5 INCHES SET DURING THE WINTER OF 1930-1931. THE NORMAL SEASONAL SNOWFALL FOR THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE 56.0 INCHES. LAST YEAR...95.1 INCHES OF SNOWFALL HAD FALLEN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. THESE DRY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH MANY LOCATIONS RECORDING 20 TO 40 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE FALL AND WINTER MONTHS SO FAR. WINSLOW HAS ONLY RECEIVED 17% (0.62") OF THEIR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SEPT 1ST THROUGH FEB 6TH PERIOD. ...LA NINA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SPRING... NOAA HAS ALSO ANNOUNCED THE OFFICIAL RETURN OF LA NINA. LA NINA IS THE PERIODIC COOLING OF OCEAN WATERS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC...WHICH CAN IMPACT THE ALIGNMENT OF WEATHER PATTERNS AROUND THE GLOBE. LA NINA TYPICALLY FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR ARIZONA DURING THE WINTER SEASON. LA NINA EVENTS RECUR APPROXIMATELY EVERY THREE TO FIVE YEARS. THE LAST LA NINA EVENT WAS A MULTI-YEAR EVENT FROM 1998-2001. THE INITIAL STARTING YEARS OF LA NINA EVENTS SINCE 1949 ARE LISTED IN THE TABLE BELOW...ALONG WITH THE AMOUNT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL RECEIVED FOR THE SNOWFALL SEASON...THE SNOWFALL THAT OCCURRED FROM FEB 1ST THROUGH JUNE 30TH...AND LIQUID PRECIPITATION (INCLUDING MELTED SNOW) THAT OCCURRED FROM FEB 1ST THROUGH JUNE 30TH OF THOSE YEARS: STARTING TOTAL SNOW FROM LIQ. PRECIP. FROM YEAR SNOW FEB 1 - JUN 30 FEB 1 - JUN 30 1949-1950 63.3" 20.7" 3.30" 1954-1955 67.6" 17.8" 5.37" 1961-1962 128.9" 48.6" 7.05" 1964-1965* 166.7"* 123.6"* 13.47"* 1967-1968 150.4" 44.1" 5.24" 1970-1971 56.6" 29.3" 3.51" 1973-1974 70.0" 12.8" 1.84" 1983-1984 32.0" 7.6" 2.09" 1988-1989 77.7" 29.1" 4.29" 1995-1996 28.5" 16.2" 1.97" 1998-1999 72.0" 53.3" 5.18" NORMALS 1971-2000 109.4" 57.7" 7.70" *THE 1964-1965 SEASON LA NINA EVENT ENDED EARLY IN THE WINTER SEASON...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN FEBRUARY-MAY. IT PROBABLY IS NOT RELEVANT FOR THIS CURRENT WINTER SEASON AS LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO LATE SPRING, POSSIBLY INTO THE SUMMER. WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE 1964-1965 DATA...THE AVERAGE TOTAL SNOWFALL DURING THESE PREVIOUS LA NINA EVENTS WAS 74.7 INCHES (68% OF NORMAL). MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL DURING THESE WINTERS FELL EARLY IN THE SEASON...SO THAT WHEN ONLY THE FEB-JUNE PERIOD IS EXAMINED...ONLY 28.0 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WERE RECEIVED (49% OF NORMAL). WHEN LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR THE FEB-JUNE PERIOD IS EXAMINED FOR THESE LA NINA EVENTS...ONLY 3.98 INCHES FELL ON AVERAGE (52% OF NORMAL). CLEARLY THE TENDENCY FOR LA NINA TO BRING DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA CAN BE SEEN IN THESE STATISTICS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE EXTENDED RANGE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE MONTHS OF FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL CALLS FOR ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

[azsnowman]

BTW....to date, I am now 103" behind in snowpack and NOTHING, not a friggin' DROP of RAIN is in the forecast

Couple THIS good news with the fire we now have (see Off Topic Forum) it's only a matter of time before we ALL burn


Dennis

[wall_cloud]

sheesh, in Amarillo, we've only had 0.86" since Sep 1.