Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Folks, the GFS has raised the WHITE FLAG. It has surrendered, 1047 high over Colorado at 78. Thats a good 15MB stronger than 12z. Euro, I now worship you.

If we do not see some major forecast changes by the NWS tomorrow...I will be shocked. This is spelling COLD to me for sure. ALL models are now in agreement.

[jasons2k]

I think IAH will be 29 Sun AM. 32 at Hobby and 36 at Galveston.

[Tyler]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_102.shtml
^^well folks...the GFS is now on board for a significant surge of arctic air. Take a look at hour 102...are those 850mb temps. below -6C I see? Yes! Finally, the GFS is in line with the other models. Look for some major changes to NWS forecasts (toward a colder look) over the next few days. Also, notice the thickness values down to 534! The bad thing is that hr. 102 is overnight on Sat night/sun morning. This only reinforces the idea of a pretty hard freeze with teens and lower 20s reaching all the way to Harris Co!^^

Extreme, you and I have witnessed the worst bust the GFS has done in a LONG time. The Euro has been spot on since 7 days ago. I think the GFS owes us an apology!

[Extremeweatherguy]

This image at hour 102 speaks for itself...cold aimed right at us.

[Tyler]

I think IAH will be 29 Sun AM. 32 at Hobby and 36 at Galveston.

Shclitz, good forecast. However, now that the GFS has caught on, I'll be bold (when am I not) and go with 26 IAH, 28 Hobby, 34 Galveston.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_102.shtml
^^well folks...the GFS is now on board for a significant surge of arctic air. Take a look at hour 102...are those 850mb temps. below -6C I see? Yes! Finally, the GFS is in line with the other models. Look for some major changes to NWS forecasts (toward a colder look) over the next few days. Also, notice the thickness values down to 534! The bad thing is that hr. 102 is overnight on Sat night/sun morning. This only reinforces the idea of a pretty hard freeze with teens and lower 20s reaching all the way to Harris Co!^^

Extreme, you and I have witnessed the worst bust the GFS has done in a LONG time. The Euro has been spot on since 7 days ago. I think the GFS owes us an apology!

yes, for sure. Lets just hope it doesn't have any last second flip flops up it's sleeve.

[Tyler]

Extreme, you just posted the 18z GFS.

Edit: cool, you fixed it!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think IAH will be 29 Sun AM. 32 at Hobby and 36 at Galveston.

Shclitz, good forecast. However, now that the GFS has caught on, I'll be bold (when am I not) and go with 26 IAH, 28 Hobby, 34 Galveston.

I will be even bolder and go 19 Conroe, 24 IAH, 27 Hobby and 32 Galveston.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extreme, you just posted the 18z GFS.

oops. Thanks for pointing that out. Just fixed it.

[Tyler]

I think IAH will be 29 Sun AM. 32 at Hobby and 36 at Galveston.

Shclitz, good forecast. However, now that the GFS has caught on, I'll be bold (when am I not) and go with 26 IAH, 28 Hobby, 34 Galveston.

I will be even bolder and go 19 Conroe, 24 IAH, 27 Hobby and 32 Galveston.

LOL. I agree though, it could certainly get that cold!

[Kludge]

Conroe would be the spot to report 19! Its always a good 5 to 10 degrees cooler than surrounding observation sites. Apperently, its in a "soup bowl", an area of lower elevation.

Ok... we're busted. At the Conroe airport we keep our thermometer in a sock full of dry ice, encased in a can of freon-12, and wrapped in one of hillary!'s old bras.

We do that to attract folks to move here and away from the Houston heat.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Conroe would be the spot to report 19! Its always a good 5 to 10 degrees cooler than surrounding observation sites. Apperently, its in a "soup bowl", an area of lower elevation.

Ok... we're busted. At the Conroe airport we keep our thermometer in a sock full of dry ice, encased in a can of freon-12, and wrapped in one of hillary!'s old bras.

We do that to attract folks to move here and away from the Houston heat.

[Tyler]

Conroe would be the spot to report 19! Its always a good 5 to 10 degrees cooler than surrounding observation sites. Apperently, its in a "soup bowl", an area of lower elevation.

Ok... we're busted. At the Conroe airport we keep our thermometer in a sock full of dry ice, encased in a can of freon-12, and wrapped in one of hillary!'s old bras.

We do that to attract folks to move here and away from the Houston heat.

Ha!

[jasons2k]

[Tyler]

I'll post those high quality colored maps from Plymouth of the 0z GFS once they come out...

[Tyler]

Here's day 3 0z GFS:
850Mb Temps (C):



Cold air ready to pounce on SE TX.

[Extremeweatherguy]

My big fear is that we get rain on Saturday and that there are puddles/wet roads on Saturday night, and then we dip to well below 32 and it freezes. Could be a real mess Sunday morning. I also think we need to watch the back edge of this precip. If it lasts later into Saturday, then I would not be surprised to see it end in a wintry mix since we will be entering such a cold airmass. Just some thoughts...we will need to watch models closely over the next few days. Would not even be surprised to see some isolated flurries on Saturday evening.

[Tyler]

0z GFS day 3.5:

Here it comes:

[Tyler]

My big fear is that we get rain on Saturday and that there are puddles/wet roads on Saturday night, and then we dip to well below 32 and it freezes. Could be a real mess Sunday morning. I also think we need to watch the back edge of this precip. If it lasts later into Saturday, then I would not be surprised to see it end in a wintry mix since we will be entering such a cold airmass. Just some thoughts...we will need to watch models closely over the next few days. Would not even be surprised to see some isolated flurries on Saturday evening.

Extreme, I agree, any standing water Saturday night could freeze and cause very tricky travel.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow. look at that straight north flow right from the arctic itself. haha I am already starting to get excited over this, as if it was going to happen tomorrow.