Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Tyler]

The NAM is now strengthening the High even more, verging on 1050. EVERY model now has the high 10mb stronger than GFS. Crazy.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

1049 MB high in NW Canada, 66 hours 0z NAM. GFS, get ready to bust like you've never busted before...

We are on the verge of 1050 here folks...

that is for sure. My opinion on the high is that below 1040mb we see most of the cold go east. Between 1040 and 1045mb, we see a some cold here (enough for 20s). Between 1045 and 1050mb we see a good chunk of the cold come here (enough for a hard freeze). And over 1050mb...then we will probably see most of the air head our way and be in for a major CHILL. Looks like the last option is becoming more and more likely...

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NAM is now strengthening the High even more, verging on 1050. EVERY model now has the high 10mb stronger than GFS. Crazy.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

also look at that strong low to the east. The perfect positioning of those two weather systems looks like it may send the arctic air heading straight south toward TX.

[Portastorm]

Hey, didn't AFM say a few days ago that if the high builds strength as it moves further south ... LOOK OUT BELOW?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well if the NAM is right...then this air is coming right to Texas. Take a look at hour 84 as the arctic front is plunging down the state from north to south. Another interesting thing is that it still has moisture around as we may be getting cold enough for wintry weather. Hmmm... and even if not...this model is certaintly showing that any remaining moisture would freeze Saturday night.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

**1048mb high in Colorado. BTW, that is stronger than the early December high**

[Tyler]

Extreme, LOOK AT THE ANGLE THE COLD IS COMING IN! Can you say lower 20's!!! That is the PERFECT position for the high and the PERFECT angle that the cold is coming in. I love you NAM. Will it be right, well, it matches up with the Euro nicely, as well as Canadian and NOGAPS, so yes it probably will be...

Too bad there isn't snowcover or we'd easily be in the teens...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

There are going to be some busted forecast big time this weekend if our NWS offices continue to hug the GFS for every forecasts. My prediction is the flip flopping will start in earnest starting overnigt or Thursday.

NWS Corpus set down a bold prediction for upper 20's to low 30's for lows down here on Saturday night. I wonder if that is low enough if the NAM and Euro are correct?

[Tyler]

If the Euro or NAM verify, then they would mostly drop the lows down a category, but the Corpus Christi office is performing excellent through this.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah. the latest modeling makes me think that north Texas will see teens...the Houston area will see lower 20s...the corpus area will see mid 20s and the far southern reaches of Texas may see a light freeze (down near Brownsville). I would not be surprised to see an isolated teen report (19F) in the Houston area though!

[Tyler]

Conroe would be the spot to report 19! Its always a good 5 to 10 degrees cooler than surrounding observation sites. Apperently, its in a "soup bowl", an area of lower elevation.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Conroe would be the spot to report 19! Its always a good 5 to 10 degrees cooler than surrounding observation sites. Apperently, its in a "soup bowl", an area of lower elevation.

I think that if we got to 20-22 here in Spring, that Conroe would reach 16-19. My house is in a cold pocket too though, so if the official sites reported lower 20s...I would probably see teens. Brr... going to catch many by surprise too...especially with the latest NWS forecasts and the on-air mets forecasts.

[Tyler]

Yes Extreme, I agree, many suprises await SE TX this weekend... People are going to walk outside saturday when its 45 degrees and be like, "Ok, WTF!? It was supposed to be near 60 today..."

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yes Extreme, I agree, many suprises await SE TX this weekend... People are going to walk outside saturday when its 45 degrees and be like, "Ok, WTF!? It was supposed to be near 60 today..."

exactly. I am hoping that the NWS and on air mets might get it right tomorrow...but I doubt it. On air they will probably get it right the DAY OF with a special bulletin Saturday night like "Surprise freeze heading our way"<<Wouldn't have been a "surprise" if it was forecasted earlier!...and the NWS will get it right whenever the GFS joins our side (hopefully by early tomorrow)...may be (once the GFS is on board) they will actually put out some good forecasts!

[boca]

I hope Florida gets some cold air too.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am yet again AMAZED by the HORRIBLE Channel 9 forecast! Their latest Cecilia Sinclair (sorry I probably spelled that wrong) forecast called for 64 on Saturday with a low in the 40s...and 66 on Sunday with a low in the 40s. Are they drunk? I mean that is even 10 degrees warmer than the NWS (which is too warm). This is why people will be caught so much off gaurd when the cold finally gets here. They will likely bust by at least 20 degrees.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well the 0Z GFS seems to have caught on!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml
^^Front coming in on Friday^^

Notice the 1044mb high coming down the plains...this is up from a 1033mb high on the 12Z.


Currently the run is only in through 78 hrs...I will post more as it becomes available.

[jasons2k]

yeah, I have to agree EWG, she is way too warm.

Hey Portastorm, sorry I'm not ready to say winter=cancel yet. I wish I could though, but we have a rough 2 weeks ahead.

[Brent]

Well the 0Z GFS seems to have caught on!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml

Look at all the moisture here with the 540 line almost overhead. Could it be???

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml
^^well folks...the GFS is now on board for a significant surge of arctic air. Take a look at hour 102...are those 850mb temps. below -6C I see? Yes! Finally, the GFS is in line with the other models. Look for some major changes to NWS forecasts (toward a colder look) over the next few days. Also, notice the thickness values down to 534! The bad thing is that hr. 102 is overnight on Sat night/sun morning. This only reinforces the idea of a pretty hard freeze with teens and lower 20s reaching all the way to Harris Co!^^

[Tyler]

Folks, the GFS has raised the WHITE FLAG. It has surrendered, 1047 high over Colorado at 78. Thats a good 15MB stronger than 12z. Euro, I now worship you.