Scientist rebuts global warming skeptics - Houston Chronicle

[jasons2k]

Scientist rebuts global warming skeptics
An expert says the real questions should be how much and what are the consequences

Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle

Chris Rapley, director of the British Antarctic Survey and one of the United Kingdom's leading climate-change scientists, visited Houston and spoke last week to an audience at the Houston Museum of Natural Science. He discussed climate change, and his most recent research in Antarctica. Before giving his talk, Rapley spoke with Chronicle science writer Eric Berger.

Q: What do you say to the skeptics who say the planet may be warming, but human activity is not a major cause?

A: There is absolutely no question that we humans have pumped all of this additional carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. We're all grateful there's a natural level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, because that's the greenhouse effect that stops the planet from freezing over. But if you put more carbon dioxide in there, it will increase the temperature at the surface of the Earth. The big question is, how much? And also, what are the consequences to natural systems as a whole, and to human beings? What we're finding is that the Earth seems to be more sensitive to little kicks of carbon dioxide than we thought. So I think the skeptics have got to answer this question: do you agree that physics is physics, and if carbon is increasing, how can you really deny there's going to be warming?

Q: How much is, say, Texas going to warm up in the next century?

A: The policymaker, quite rightly, doesn't care much about mean global surface temperature or what have you. What they want to know is what's going to happen in my backyard. And that's where the computer models always have real difficulty. They can do pretty good at getting global averages, but the accuracy is much less when you're dealing with a specific area at a particular time. I think the main thing is there will be some people who are better off, like wine growers in Southern England. But the big problem is that there are some areas that are currently agriculturally productive that will become less so.

Q: Societies change at a rapid pace these days. Won't we be able to adapt?

A: Go back 20,000 years and there were great ice sheets over much of the Northern Hemisphere. Big change there. If we were talking about something that's going to gradually change over 20,000 years, I don't think anyone would worry. But if change is happening very quickly, all of our infrastructure is at risk.

Q: I can't imagine Houston summers getting much warmer, but isn't sea-level rise a bigger concern? A significant fraction of the world's population lives within a few feet of sea level. Could a lot of the coastal cities become uninhabitable?

A: That's the fear. That's the concern. If you look at the change in sea level, you have to wonder what's going to happen to the hundreds of millions of people in Bangladesh if their coastal cities all flood. We're going to be talking about a lot of environmental refugees. Immigration is a tricky enough issue as it is, without hundreds of millions of people desperately trying to find dry land upon which to live.

Q: If things are going to warm up, should I buy land in the Arctic Circle?

A: No, but it's funny you should say that. Someone recently came to us and asked, given the change, where would you invest? The response was along those lines — you might want to invest in vineyards further north rather than south. Yeah, some people will speculate on this and make a lot of money. But there will be more losers than winners.

Q: What can the average person do about climate change if it's a global problem?

A: Just think about anything that contributes to their carbon footprint on the Earth. If they can walk instead of using the car, then walk. It can be as simple as, do you buy imported fruit, or from a local supplier? But if you really believe it's an issue, you can take it into the political arena.

Q: You're giving a talk in Houston, the self-proclaimed energy capital of the world. Are you trying to make a statement?

A: I think the energy companies are starting to get it. At the British Antarctic Survey over the last four years we had a whole series of BP executives come through a learning program on climate change, and we just had the Shell execs. Those are two companies that are marketing themselves as being environmentally aware. I was surprised, and I think they were surprised, at the gap between their understanding of the confidence with which the scientific community, like myself, is sure that there is a human impact on the planet. Their perception had come through the media, which presents this as a balanced debate between skeptics and people like myself, who are characterized as tree-huggy environmentalists who have an agenda. We don't have an agenda, other than to find the right answer and to try and do something about it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

does not look like they rebut to any of the skeptics questions. I do not see him answering any questions about the slowing gulf stream. I also do not see him saying why they think their computer models are right when the GFS is not even right 5 days out. Lots of questions are still un-answered to me...

[P.K.]

does not look like they rebut to any of the skeptics questions. I do not see him answering any questions about the slowing gulf stream.

We had someone from the Hadley Centre at the Met Office give us a lecture today at uni. The current thinking is the decrease in the gulf stream will off set some of the warming but not be enough to cancel out all the increases in greenhouse gases etc.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I agree that Global Warmer, and by default climate change, is indeed occurring. However I'm not sold on it being primarily a man made phenomenon, and not a naturally cycle that, granted, we may be contributing too. After all not that long ago, geologically speaking say between 12,000 and 8,000 years ago, most of this old globe was locked in an ice age for roughly 50,000, wouldn't it stand to reason that it would still be warming up?